ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[RachelAnna]

He doesn't look all that healthy as of now, but my hope for some good rains across Texas remains. Rain alone is satisfactory for me, don't need the winds that accompany a TS or hurricane!

Given it is a small system I would not count on a widespread rain event here especially with ridging building in from the north over Texas by this weekend.

The good rains are likely to be confined to a small area near the center and nearer to the coast.

There you went bursting my bubble! Totally hear ya on that though, but gotta keep some hope alive that we'll get some much needed relief.

[indian]

does anyone think don still has the possibility of making a more northerly landfall than what is expected?

[Stormcenter]

If you mean SE TX or maybe SW LA.......I say yes. IMO

does anyone think don still has the possibility of making a more northerly landfall than what is expected?

[indian]

If you mean SE TX or maybe SW LA.......I say yes. IMO

does anyone think don still has the possibility of making a more northerly landfall than what is expected?

yes thats what i mean....i am trying to learn...what makes you think it would make landall on the upper texas coast?

[Annie Oakley]

Forgive me but at this point I am just fascinated with what he looks like and not yet worried about what he may become. Yes we need the rain but for the magic moment, looking at a spectacle of nature is pretty awesome.

[NDG]

New deep convection is starting to fire right near the LLC but its NE quadrant just keeps getting slapped in the face by mid & UL NE winds, I also keep seeing surface outflow boundaries keep coming out of that quadrant streaming northward, indicative of dry air intrussion with surface convergence being almost non-existent in its NE quadrant away from its COC.

[DAY_1_RESPONDER]

KPRC futurecast tonight shows Don fizzling out off the coast near Brownsville. I sure hope so, I don't feel like working a couple of 14-16 hour days.

[Sanibel]

Cool upwelling water north of Yucatan taking its toll.

[NDG]

If you mean SE TX or maybe SW LA.......I say yes. IMO

does anyone think don still has the possibility of making a more northerly landfall than what is expected?

Not me, for a moment earlier this evening I almost bought the more northerly track towards the upper TX coast, but after looking at forecasted steerings across the gulf I quickly dropped that idea, I also remembered how north bias the GFDL is in that part of GOM with previous storms.

[gatorcane]

Cool upwelling water north of Yucatan taking its toll.

Yeah I am wondering if there will even be much left of this system by tomorrow morning. Northerly shear is taking it's toll now also.

[weatherSnoop]

KPRC futurecast tonight shows Don fizzling out off the coast near Brownsville. I sure hope so, I don't feel like working a couple of 14-16 hour days.

I truly hope you get to enjoy the rain with no work-related ventures

[SouthDadeFish]

Don is in desperate need of that little pop NE of the center to continue to grow and expand over the center.

[NDG]

If you mean SE TX or maybe SW LA.......I say yes. IMO

does anyone think don still has the possibility of making a more northerly landfall than what is expected?

Not me, for a moment earlier this evening I almost bought the more northerly track towards the upper TX coast, but after looking at forecasted steerings across the gulf I quickly dropped that idea, I also remembered how north bias the GFDL is in that part of GOM with previous storms.

BTW, 00z gfs now shifted to S TX

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though it's not a big system, at least a part of Texas should see some good heavy rains from Tropical storm Don (That is if it maintain's it's tropical storm status).
Even if it's just a sheared low by the time it reaches the texas coast, at least some parts will get a soaking. I would think that's a givin.......


edit: they just mentioned on the local weather, "Don is struggling and trying to maintain it's tropical storm status"

So we aren't the only ones who are seeing this ragged mess tonight....


Well, off to bed I go...

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight's 0z GFS moves Don more south than in previous runs to a landfall around Corpus Christi. I think an Upper TX Coast landfall is pretty unlikely right now.

[Texashawk]

T-36: "It's dead!"
T-24: "It's alive!"
T-12: "It's bombing!"
T-0: "It's dead!"

"Life Cycle for Tropical Systems: Storm2K Forum Edition" Copyright 2006-2011

[TwisterFanatic]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looks as though it is behaving as expected. I continue to forecast a small tropical storm out of this.

And it is running out of time to strengthen a lot especially because the upper environment is not going to be good in the western GOM as forecasted a couple of days ago.

None of the intensity or global models do much with this system. I doubt it is going to be a significant problem for those in Texas.

I would agree with that....you still thinking a mini Cat 1?

80 MPH...give or take 15...but probably more with the +15...border line 2. I still see a very favorable upper level environment starting tomorrow. It is not out of the rhelm of possibilities that Don could go off once it nears 25N...sometime tmw afternoon...where the higher TCHP's are.

Call me crazy.

So which is it?

[MWatkins]

I simply don't understand why the NHC hasn't mentioned the NE shear Don is getting from that building high. WV imagery shows it punching in and impacting the core of the circulation envelope, although latest IR4 suggests Don is trying to make a comeback.

Long story short...it's going to have to battle to maintain it's current strength for the next 12 hours or so, then we will see what's left. Personally it's hard for me to accept it could strengthen much unless the current environment changes significantly.

MW

[NDG]

Notice the 20-25 knots of easterly UL winds that the GFS forecasts as Don makes landfall pushing against it. Not the best ideal UL set up for Don to identify to a hurricane before landfall, IMO.

[stormreader]

Okay, Just a total amateur here, but after a long day of struggle, I think the sat image is now beginning to show a better organized storm. I think the low level swirl is more obvious now on visible and it is under heavy convection too. I agree that it looked pretty sloppy earlier tonight, and it still no behemoth, but I think it looks better now. Just my opinion.