ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Annie Oakley]

Don is thinking......just like NASA. Be patient.

[BigB0882]

It is amazing how quickly things change when it comes to TCs. I am hoping this means it will never get its act together and just bring some much needed rain to wherever it goes. It seems more and more like it will be the central TX coast or south. All I know is my Dad was practically begging me to tell him it was going to come his way, they need the rain so badly. I looked at the 10 day forecast and while we will be visiting it is going to be 100+ the entire time.

[ROCK]

Okay, Just a total amateur here, but after a long day of struggle, I think the sat image is now beginning to show a better organized storm. I think the low level swirl is more obvious now on visible and it is under heavy convection too. I agree that it looked pretty sloppy earlier tonight, and it still no behemoth, but I think it looks better now. Just my opinion.

I was waiting on the refire of convection over the LLC and that looks like it has started...now we see if it can maintain...as it pulls away from the yucatan it should establish a good inflow...outflow is hampered by the convergence to the NE as AFM stated...

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS products show increased lower-level convergence as of 03Z, right in the area where we area seeing the recent blow up. In fact it's the most convergence we've seen in a while with this system. Furthermore, the 500mb vorticity is becoming increasingly aligned with the 850 and 700mb vorticity, and it seems they are finally stacked, or are very close. I would not be surprised to see this recent flare up continue to expand as the band to the east feeds in moisture. TPW imagery reveals a recent surge in moisture where Don is located that may help him wall off the dry air to his west.

[JonathanBelles]

Don has just hit a small speed bump, and should resume organization and intensification overnight. Still looks like it will be a central Texas landfall as a strong Tropical Storm.

http://JonathanBelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -holds-on/

[TwisterFanatic]

Shear

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a new center burst is occurring so should be able to maintain itself overnight. When I went to the GHCC site here: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html I had to LOL when I compared Don to the convection in the midwest .

[ROCK]

CIMSS products show increased lower-level convergence as of 03Z, right in the area where we area seeing the recent blow up. In fact it's the most convergence we've seen in a while with this system. Furthermore, the 500mb vorticity is becoming increasingly aligned with the 850 and 700mb vorticity, and it seems they are finally stacked, or are very close. I would not be surprised to see this recent flare up continue to expand as the band to the east feeds in moisture. TPW imagery reveals a recent surge in moisture where Don is located that may help him wall off the dry air to his west.

also he will be moving into higher heat content....not dead yet....

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a new center burst is occurring so should be able to maintain itself overnight. When I went to the GHCC site here: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html I had to LOL when I compared Don to the convection in the midwest .

Haha! I was thinking the exact same thing. That is one impressive MCS.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's trying....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Typical GFS. Earlier it was much farther North and now back south. Another year where the EURO will be more consistant.

[South Texas Storms]

Typical GFS. Earlier it was much farther North and now back south. Another year where the EURO will be more consistant.

Well said. I didn't buy the GFS at all with the Houston landfall with the Euro consistently showing deep south TX.

[Wx_Warrior]

Shame, shame, shame on you Rock.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO is so much better than the GFS. It's much more consistant. Horrible.

[Wx_Warrior]

<<<<

[beoumont]

but I think it is important to realize that not all land is created equal and some spots may not be very detrimental to cyclogenesis.

The Florida Everglades from the air:

[SunnyThoughts]

I see another little burst trying to pop up just to the west of the other burst. He's trying to hang on for sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

Don is going to make a good run before the coast.

[South Texas Storms]

Don is going to make a good run before the coast.

Why do you think that?

[jasons2k]

Despite the loss of convection earlier, it still looks like the structure is intact. Now, if it can get some distance from the Yucatan, it may finally 'gel' some.