Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

#41 Postby **Fego** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:46 pm

As you can see, I don't post frequently but I'm sure that is too much early. Too much time and distance to guess where. But it is a possibility, no doubt.

ROCK · #42 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:48 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:could this feature head north of the islands or just brush them or is it too early to tell?

model guidance showing westward into the carib....for now

KWT · #43 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:45 am

A candidater for development down the line, SAL is a problem though for now. A month down the line it'd probably be a TS already...

If it does pop convection, then we'll probably get 91L.

#44 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:39 am

00z CMC more agressive and moves at least a strong TS into the NE carribean in 56 days....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#45 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:43 am

00z Nogaps into the carribean passing near martinique and ending up near sw haiti..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

#46 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:59 am

Great shear forecast:

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 5:41 am

TAFB took off the low pressure at 06z surface analysis.

Uploaded by imageshack.us

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:54 am

8 AM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 17N32W TO 12N34W
TO 6N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
33W AND 39W.

HurricaneWarning92 · #49 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:15 am

convection has increased...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/225/rblw.jpg/

Aric Dunn · #50 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:18 am

Looking quite impressive this morning. especially with the convection firing right in the center of the broad rotation. thats a good sign.

Aric Dunn · #51 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:19 am

I bet we get an invest today if the convection keeps increasing like it is.

Gustywind · #52 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:25 am

Aric Dunn wrote:I bet we get an invest today if the convection keeps increasing like it is.

Let's wait and see if this trend continues... after that it could be another story for a possible invest.

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Looking quite impressive this morning. especially with the convection firing right in the center of the broad rotation. thats a good sign.

Agree Aric. That rotation has to tighten more to not ingest the dry air and by doing that,it can start to organize.

KWT · #54 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:58 am

Aric Dunn wrote:I bet we get an invest today if the convection keeps increasing like it is.

Yeah we may well get an invest, its an area that probably requires at least some attention soon...

ECM takes a track similar to what it had projected for Don (which was too far north in the end) through the NE Caribbean, north of Hispaniola and then into the Bahamas, and keeps a fairly healthy looking vort area with it.

Fodie77 · #55 Postby **Fodie77** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:01 am

My wife and I are flying to St. Lucia on Monday for our honeymoon. This has me very nervous. All I can hope for is for it to hold off major development until it passes through the Carib., which is seeming unlikely.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:09 am

Fodie77 wrote:My wife and I are flying to St. Lucia on Monday for our honeymoon. This has me very nervous. All I can hope for is for it to hold off major development until it passes through the Carib., which is seeming unlikely.

First,congratulations to both of you. About Monday in St Lucia,is still early to say for sure how will it look like weatherwise in that island. The only thing I can say right now to you is to stay tuned to this thread,or to a possible 91L invest thread to see the very latest.,and hopefully,your honeynoon there is good.

AHS2011 · #57 Postby **AHS2011** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:11 am

Could this be a future threat for the Eastern Seaboard?

#58 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:31 am

AHS2011 wrote:Could this be a future threat for the Eastern Seaboard?

Is way too early to even speculate on any possible threat to the Eastern Seaboard by this system as is still not a invest and more important,is too far away.But stay tuned to this thread or if is invest,to a thread for that to see the latest.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:32 am

Is this wheel rolling?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

alan1961 · #60 Postby **alan1961** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:41 am

cycloneye wrote:Is this wheel rolling?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

You know the saying cyclone, "be careful what you wish for" :lol:

Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

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