ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like it's building up nicely right now.
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Meso
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URNT12 KNHC 281220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 28/11:55:40Z
B. 23 deg 40 min N
089 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1437 m
D. 30 kt
E. 297 deg 34 nm
F. 358 deg 19 kt
G. 266 deg 3 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 18 C / 1522 m
J. 21 C / 1534 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0204A DON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 19 KT W QUAD 11:54:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 11:57:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 234 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR
URNT12 KNHC 281220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 28/11:55:40Z
B. 23 deg 40 min N
089 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1437 m
D. 30 kt
E. 297 deg 34 nm
F. 358 deg 19 kt
G. 266 deg 3 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 18 C / 1522 m
J. 21 C / 1534 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0204A DON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 19 KT W QUAD 11:54:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 11:57:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 234 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 45 KTS SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION ON SFMR
FIX MADE INSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ACTUAL CTR
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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URNT15 KNHC 281227
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 15 20110728
121800 2431N 08828W 8424 01589 0125 +160 +068 144043 044 027 000 00
121830 2432N 08827W 8433 01580 0126 +160 +070 146042 042 027 001 00
121900 2434N 08825W 8429 01588 0128 +160 +070 146040 040 026 001 00
121930 2435N 08824W 8429 01587 0128 +160 +070 147040 040 027 001 00
122000 2436N 08823W 8432 01583 0127 +160 +069 148040 040 026 001 00
122030 2437N 08821W 8429 01588 0127 +162 +068 150039 040 027 000 00
122100 2439N 08820W 8430 01587 0127 +162 +068 148039 039 025 000 00
122130 2440N 08819W 8433 01584 0127 +162 +068 148038 038 024 000 00
122200 2441N 08818W 8428 01591 0129 +160 +067 148038 038 024 000 00
122230 2442N 08816W 8428 01593 0131 +165 +066 151038 039 024 000 00
122300 2444N 08815W 8433 01589 0131 +165 +066 152039 039 024 000 00
122330 2445N 08814W 8428 01593 0130 +166 +065 154039 039 023 001 00
122400 2446N 08812W 8429 01593 0128 +170 +065 156039 039 024 001 00
122430 2447N 08811W 8433 01588 0128 +170 +065 158039 039 023 001 00
122500 2449N 08810W 8428 01594 0130 +170 +066 159038 038 024 001 00
122530 2450N 08808W 8429 01591 0127 +170 +066 158037 038 024 000 03
122600 2451N 08807W 8430 01590 0127 +170 +066 157038 038 026 000 00
122630 2453N 08806W 8433 01593 0132 +170 +066 157038 038 026 001 00
122700 2454N 08804W 8426 01598 0130 +170 +066 155039 039 026 000 00
122730 2455N 08803W 8433 01590 0129 +175 +065 153040 040 026 000 00
URNT15 KNHC 281227
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 15 20110728
121800 2431N 08828W 8424 01589 0125 +160 +068 144043 044 027 000 00
121830 2432N 08827W 8433 01580 0126 +160 +070 146042 042 027 001 00
121900 2434N 08825W 8429 01588 0128 +160 +070 146040 040 026 001 00
121930 2435N 08824W 8429 01587 0128 +160 +070 147040 040 027 001 00
122000 2436N 08823W 8432 01583 0127 +160 +069 148040 040 026 001 00
122030 2437N 08821W 8429 01588 0127 +162 +068 150039 040 027 000 00
122100 2439N 08820W 8430 01587 0127 +162 +068 148039 039 025 000 00
122130 2440N 08819W 8433 01584 0127 +162 +068 148038 038 024 000 00
122200 2441N 08818W 8428 01591 0129 +160 +067 148038 038 024 000 00
122230 2442N 08816W 8428 01593 0131 +165 +066 151038 039 024 000 00
122300 2444N 08815W 8433 01589 0131 +165 +066 152039 039 024 000 00
122330 2445N 08814W 8428 01593 0130 +166 +065 154039 039 023 001 00
122400 2446N 08812W 8429 01593 0128 +170 +065 156039 039 024 001 00
122430 2447N 08811W 8433 01588 0128 +170 +065 158039 039 023 001 00
122500 2449N 08810W 8428 01594 0130 +170 +066 159038 038 024 001 00
122530 2450N 08808W 8429 01591 0127 +170 +066 158037 038 024 000 03
122600 2451N 08807W 8430 01590 0127 +170 +066 157038 038 026 000 00
122630 2453N 08806W 8433 01593 0132 +170 +066 157038 038 026 001 00
122700 2454N 08804W 8426 01598 0130 +170 +066 155039 039 026 000 00
122730 2455N 08803W 8433 01590 0129 +175 +065 153040 040 026 000 00
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is Don turning North? Or is it just me?
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AHS2011 wrote:Is Don turning North? Or is it just me?
It would appear to be just you.
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Meso
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URNT15 KNHC 281237
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 16 20110728
122800 2456N 08802W 8430 01596 0132 +175 +065 151041 042 027 000 00
122830 2458N 08800W 8423 01605 0134 +170 +065 149042 042 027 000 00
122900 2459N 08759W 8428 01598 0133 +170 +065 146041 042 026 002 03
122930 2501N 08759W 8425 01600 0134 +170 +064 145039 039 /// /// 03
123000 2501N 08801W 8429 01595 0132 +170 +065 142036 037 024 003 03
123030 2501N 08802W 8428 01596 0132 +170 +065 141038 038 028 000 00
123100 2501N 08804W 8433 01589 0132 +169 +064 144039 039 029 000 00
123130 2501N 08806W 8428 01595 0128 +171 +061 144038 038 027 001 00
123200 2501N 08809W 8430 01594 0130 +172 +060 142037 038 028 002 00
123230 2501N 08811W 8429 01595 0131 +170 +058 142038 038 027 001 00
123300 2501N 08813W 8433 01588 0130 +169 +058 142038 039 028 001 03
123330 2502N 08815W 8433 01589 0132 +166 +057 138038 038 029 000 03
123400 2502N 08817W 8433 01587 0129 +168 +056 133036 037 030 002 00
123430 2503N 08819W 8428 01593 0129 +167 +055 133034 034 028 001 00
123500 2503N 08821W 8433 01589 0131 +166 +055 143035 036 020 003 03
123530 2503N 08823W 8426 01594 0128 +171 +055 144037 037 026 001 00
123600 2503N 08825W 8429 01590 0127 +171 +056 141037 038 025 001 00
123630 2503N 08827W 8427 01593 0125 +170 +056 144037 037 027 001 00
123700 2502N 08828W 8428 01591 0125 +170 +057 145036 037 026 000 00
123730 2502N 08830W 8429 01589 0126 +170 +057 146034 035 027 001 00
URNT15 KNHC 281237
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 16 20110728
122800 2456N 08802W 8430 01596 0132 +175 +065 151041 042 027 000 00
122830 2458N 08800W 8423 01605 0134 +170 +065 149042 042 027 000 00
122900 2459N 08759W 8428 01598 0133 +170 +065 146041 042 026 002 03
122930 2501N 08759W 8425 01600 0134 +170 +064 145039 039 /// /// 03
123000 2501N 08801W 8429 01595 0132 +170 +065 142036 037 024 003 03
123030 2501N 08802W 8428 01596 0132 +170 +065 141038 038 028 000 00
123100 2501N 08804W 8433 01589 0132 +169 +064 144039 039 029 000 00
123130 2501N 08806W 8428 01595 0128 +171 +061 144038 038 027 001 00
123200 2501N 08809W 8430 01594 0130 +172 +060 142037 038 028 002 00
123230 2501N 08811W 8429 01595 0131 +170 +058 142038 038 027 001 00
123300 2501N 08813W 8433 01588 0130 +169 +058 142038 039 028 001 03
123330 2502N 08815W 8433 01589 0132 +166 +057 138038 038 029 000 03
123400 2502N 08817W 8433 01587 0129 +168 +056 133036 037 030 002 00
123430 2503N 08819W 8428 01593 0129 +167 +055 133034 034 028 001 00
123500 2503N 08821W 8433 01589 0131 +166 +055 143035 036 020 003 03
123530 2503N 08823W 8426 01594 0128 +171 +055 144037 037 026 001 00
123600 2503N 08825W 8429 01590 0127 +171 +056 141037 038 025 001 00
123630 2503N 08827W 8427 01593 0125 +170 +056 144037 037 027 001 00
123700 2502N 08828W 8428 01591 0125 +170 +057 145036 037 026 000 00
123730 2502N 08830W 8429 01589 0126 +170 +057 146034 035 027 001 00
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DON - Models
12z Tropical Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 281236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC THU JUL 28 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DON (AL042011) 20110728 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110728 1200 110729 0000 110729 1200 110730 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 89.5W 24.9N 91.5W 26.1N 93.7W 27.1N 95.9W
BAMD 23.7N 89.5W 24.3N 91.6W 24.8N 93.9W 25.4N 96.5W
BAMM 23.7N 89.5W 24.6N 91.6W 25.3N 93.8W 26.2N 96.3W
LBAR 23.7N 89.5W 24.9N 91.6W 26.3N 93.8W 27.6N 96.1W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110730 1200 110731 1200 110801 1200 110802 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 98.2W 30.2N 102.6W 32.6N 105.9W 34.5N 107.1W
BAMD 25.8N 99.1W 26.8N 104.8W 28.5N 110.2W 30.7N 114.2W
BAMM 26.9N 98.8W 28.5N 103.9W 30.6N 107.9W 32.3N 110.5W
LBAR 28.7N 98.3W 31.3N 102.3W 33.9N 104.4W 36.2N 103.9W
SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 59KTS 52KTS
DSHP 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.7N LONCUR = 89.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 86.2W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:IR Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10
Clearly building convection this morning. We've seen storms struggle near the tip of the Yuk before. Once it moves into higher heat content then we can determine just how favorable or unfavorable conditions are.
Indeed, I recall Dolly also having to get past the Yucatan to really get going...think its not really a problem for established storms, but for fledgling systems that can cause issues.
Still bursting but still looks like its got something of a sheared presentation to me...proven by the fact that the center is right on the Nrn edge of the convection.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Perfect agreement with the NHC from the ships, with it getting to 50kts.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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URNT15 KNHC 281247
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 17 20110728
123800 2502N 08832W 8431 01588 0126 +166 +057 147033 034 029 000 03
123830 2502N 08834W 8431 01589 0129 +165 +057 145034 035 030 001 00
123900 2502N 08836W 8424 01595 0129 +165 +056 144034 035 031 000 00
123930 2502N 08838W 8432 01587 0129 +165 +055 146035 036 031 000 00
124000 2502N 08840W 8430 01588 0129 +164 +055 142035 035 029 000 00
124030 2502N 08842W 8428 01593 0130 +164 +055 142035 035 030 000 00
124100 2503N 08844W 8429 01590 0130 +165 +054 141035 035 030 001 00
124130 2503N 08846W 8430 01589 0130 +165 +054 139035 036 031 000 00
124200 2503N 08849W 8428 01591 0127 +165 +055 138036 036 032 001 00
124230 2503N 08851W 8430 01588 0126 +169 +056 136037 038 030 001 00
124300 2503N 08853W 8430 01588 0125 +169 +056 136037 038 030 001 00
124330 2503N 08855W 8431 01587 0123 +170 +057 134037 038 030 001 00
124400 2503N 08857W 8429 01588 0123 +169 +058 134039 039 031 001 00
124430 2503N 08859W 8428 01589 0122 +169 +059 134039 040 031 001 00
124500 2503N 08901W 8429 01589 0124 +169 +060 132040 041 032 001 00
124530 2503N 08903W 8425 01590 0125 +166 +060 131041 042 030 001 00
124600 2503N 08905W 8430 01587 0124 +169 +060 130040 041 029 000 00
124630 2503N 08907W 8429 01587 0123 +168 +059 127042 042 028 001 00
124700 2503N 08909W 8430 01584 0122 +169 +059 127041 042 029 000 00
124730 2503N 08911W 8429 01587 0123 +168 +060 126040 040 028 001 00
URNT15 KNHC 281247
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 17 20110728
123800 2502N 08832W 8431 01588 0126 +166 +057 147033 034 029 000 03
123830 2502N 08834W 8431 01589 0129 +165 +057 145034 035 030 001 00
123900 2502N 08836W 8424 01595 0129 +165 +056 144034 035 031 000 00
123930 2502N 08838W 8432 01587 0129 +165 +055 146035 036 031 000 00
124000 2502N 08840W 8430 01588 0129 +164 +055 142035 035 029 000 00
124030 2502N 08842W 8428 01593 0130 +164 +055 142035 035 030 000 00
124100 2503N 08844W 8429 01590 0130 +165 +054 141035 035 030 001 00
124130 2503N 08846W 8430 01589 0130 +165 +054 139035 036 031 000 00
124200 2503N 08849W 8428 01591 0127 +165 +055 138036 036 032 001 00
124230 2503N 08851W 8430 01588 0126 +169 +056 136037 038 030 001 00
124300 2503N 08853W 8430 01588 0125 +169 +056 136037 038 030 001 00
124330 2503N 08855W 8431 01587 0123 +170 +057 134037 038 030 001 00
124400 2503N 08857W 8429 01588 0123 +169 +058 134039 039 031 001 00
124430 2503N 08859W 8428 01589 0122 +169 +059 134039 040 031 001 00
124500 2503N 08901W 8429 01589 0124 +169 +060 132040 041 032 001 00
124530 2503N 08903W 8425 01590 0125 +166 +060 131041 042 030 001 00
124600 2503N 08905W 8430 01587 0124 +169 +060 130040 041 029 000 00
124630 2503N 08907W 8429 01587 0123 +168 +059 127042 042 028 001 00
124700 2503N 08909W 8430 01584 0122 +169 +059 127041 042 029 000 00
124730 2503N 08911W 8429 01587 0123 +168 +060 126040 040 028 001 00
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Off Topic=July may have another cyclone in the Atlantic.See what I mean at Talking Tropics.
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Also just looking at the NHC track, looks like its slowly coming a little further south towards S.Texas, might be a close call as to whether it breaks the USA's no TS run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
He looks decent enough for me..with still time to really get going...which I suspect he will sometime today....
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Re:
KWT wrote:Also just looking at the NHC track, looks like its slowly coming a little further south towards S.Texas, might be a close call as to whether it breaks the USA's no TS run.
You are joking right?
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Actually, this mornings model suite focused on Corpus.....Matagorda Bay....no models said Mexico on wunderground's site..... 
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