Global model runs discussion

[blp]

[quote="cycloneye"]This is the first run in 2011 that I see GFS showing something that resembles a low pressure with more than one isobar. But is only one run and you know the drill.

Indeed, I am seeing 997mb on that run which would be hurricane on GFS.

[ROCK]

0z NAM showing 90L in the central GOM by 84hr...it has slowed down alot....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[cycloneye]

Crown Weather has a good discussion this morning of what to expect in the peak months of the season.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

The latest indications continue to point to the potential for a very busy August, September and October across the Atlantic Basin. The latest European seasonal model continues to point to significantly lower than average pressures across the western Atlantic, Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This lower than average pressure signal seems to point to numerous tropical cyclones tracking into the western half of the Atlantic Basin during August, September and October. For what it’s worth, the CFS model for Friday, August 26th is forecasting three significant tropical cyclones going at once across the Atlantic. The exact details of the model shouldn’t be trusted, however, the overall trend of a significant increase in tropical cyclone activity should be heeded.

So, today would be a very good day to go over your hurricane preparedness kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe’s and purchase what you need. If you are looking for lists of what should be in your hurricane preparedness kit, go to http://www.onestorm.org. This is a really good reference website and I highly recommend it!! Also, go over your homeowners or renter’s insurance and make sure you are properly covered. If you do not have flood insurance, get it!! Most homeowners/renter’s insurance policies do not cover flood damage. For information about the National Flood Insurance Program, go to http://www.floodsmart.gov.

CFS model for August 26

[mitchell]

Really? August 26th?

Am i interpreting that model run correctly and it is predicting the actual locations of lows and isobars a month from now?

Either way, NFIP flood insurance has a 30 day waiting period for new coverage, so i guess a 31 day forecast makes sense!

[BigB0882]

If the lower than normal pressures are stopping at the Eastern Gulf, does that mean that the Western Gulf and Mexico may be less of a target or just that it is less likely for a storm to originate in that part of the Gulf?

[Kennethb]

CFS gives general guidance, and not specifics. I would not use this to determine exactly where a certain storm may be. It may be splitting the differences. It should be used a guidance that developement is most likely.

While pressures may be higher in West GOM, no areas are free from potential impacts.

[KWT]

Yep CFS is really jsut a guide, though with that being said it actually caught Earl a solid 500hrs out and actually did a rather good job with the track!

[Kennethb]

My general thoughts are that 90L and the next few waves off of Africa are the guards and tackles opening the way for the waves in middle and end of August when things will get cranking.

[somethingfunny]

I would bet my house that there will be something of Cape Verde origin somewhere in the Atlantic on August 26th. I mean, it's not much of a stretch.

[xironman]

CMC wants to start the Cape Verde season, this one tracks weak all the way across

[cycloneye]

GFS still doesn't show anything in the whole Atlantic Basin that develops thru August 12.

[xironman]

Let's see if the "uncle" sniffed out anything, here is the 12z run at 144

[stormhunter7]

Not sure if i am seeing this right in the Globals Models, but does it appear that the Atlantic High will be weakening in the coming few weeks? Is this a sign of a pattern change and the opening of the CV season? I don't recall seeing globals showing the Azores surface high going through this much of a change in a season in long range models, this early. Seems to me that the Atlantic Tropical region (btwn CV and Leeward) pressures are going to lower going into August and that could mean that every wave coming off Africa could spin up quickly and possibly be long trackers? I looked at the MJO forecast and some other scientific data and it appears that a switch might be flipping soon?

Anyone else seeing this in long range? Pattern Change coming?

[HurricaneWarning92]

i was asking myself the same thing... if thats the case, then more storms would head north of the islands and maybe pose threat to the Southeastern coast.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks like more of a threat for the ships if the Azore high weakens that much. Which is just fine and dandy for me.

[HurricaneFan]

What would cause the Azores High to weaken that much in a few weeks

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What would cause the Azores High to weaken that much in a few weeks

I suspect this, at least in part, is the cause. There has been a persistent synoptic pattern of a trough over/off the West Coast, a ridge over the mid-section of North America and another trough over/off the East Coast more or less since late April. The pattern shifted into a ridge over both the Mid-Section and the East Coast throughout most of July, however now the familiar configuration seems to be returning in August as the Mid-Section "Death Ridge" retreats back from whence it came. If this pattern remains in place (weak Bermuda-Azores High and a persistent East Coast Trough) it will be very difficult for most storms to penetrate the East Coast of North American north of Florida.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Fego]

12 UTC GFS run keeps a south caribbean path but not to much bullish in development.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[HURAKAN]

NAM and GFS are developing a low pressure in the southern Caribbean

0Z GFS - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_lu.shtml

0Z NAM - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Big O]

bump.

Any future threats other than 91L and the system that recently emerged off the coast of Africa?