ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

Looking at this morning's satellite loops I can see why the models shifted northward. IMO

Models shifted slightly northward...looks like the "flip-flop" begins!

[Dave]

I'm on if anyone needs a break.

[Meso]

796
URNT15 KNHC 281327
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 21 20110728
131800 2458N 09056W 8429 01591 0126 +172 +061 082014 015 025 000 00
131830 2457N 09055W 8433 01588 0124 +175 +060 085014 015 024 000 00
131900 2456N 09053W 8429 01591 0124 +175 +060 088016 017 024 000 00
131930 2455N 09052W 8429 01593 0125 +175 +060 087017 017 024 000 03
132000 2454N 09051W 8429 01593 0124 +175 +060 088017 018 024 000 00
132030 2452N 09050W 8429 01593 0125 +174 +060 088016 016 024 000 03
132100 2451N 09049W 8432 01589 0125 +171 +060 088016 016 024 000 03
132130 2450N 09048W 8426 01591 0125 +170 +059 095015 015 023 000 03
132200 2449N 09047W 8430 01587 0122 +173 +058 104013 013 024 000 00
132230 2448N 09046W 8424 01594 0119 +173 +058 102012 015 025 003 00
132300 2446N 09045W 8426 01591 0120 +173 +058 090010 013 025 000 03
132330 2445N 09044W 8437 01580 0122 +170 +057 081012 013 023 003 00
132400 2443N 09043W 8424 01591 0117 +175 +055 075011 012 022 000 03
132430 2442N 09042W 8433 01583 0119 +175 +056 077011 012 023 000 00
132500 2441N 09041W 8430 01584 0117 +175 +056 074012 013 021 000 03
132530 2440N 09040W 8429 01583 0116 +174 +057 071013 013 021 000 00
132600 2438N 09039W 8432 01582 0117 +171 +058 070013 013 027 000 00
132630 2437N 09038W 8429 01584 0114 +175 +058 069012 012 028 001 00
132700 2435N 09037W 8432 01580 0113 +178 +058 072012 013 027 002 00
132730 2434N 09036W 8429 01582 0112 +178 +058 071014 014 025 001 00

[Meso]

URNT15 KNHC 281337
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 22 20110728
132800 2433N 09035W 8430 01580 0114 +174 +059 067014 015 024 000 00
132830 2431N 09034W 8429 01583 0114 +171 +060 070014 015 023 001 00
132900 2430N 09033W 8432 01578 0113 +172 +059 068015 015 023 000 00
132930 2429N 09032W 8428 01580 0113 +171 +059 064015 016 021 000 00
133000 2427N 09031W 8433 01576 0111 +173 +059 066015 015 021 000 00
133030 2426N 09030W 8431 01576 0111 +171 +059 074016 017 021 000 00
133100 2425N 09030W 8430 01577 0107 +175 +059 072017 017 019 000 00
133130 2423N 09029W 8429 01577 0107 +175 +060 072017 018 018 000 00
133200 2422N 09028W 8430 01574 0105 +176 +060 072016 016 021 001 00
133230 2421N 09027W 8433 01572 0105 +175 +060 067014 015 020 002 00
133300 2419N 09026W 8432 01572 0103 +178 +060 062015 016 024 002 00
133330 2418N 09025W 8428 01576 0098 +184 +058 059017 017 024 001 00
133400 2417N 09024W 8428 01573 0097 +185 +059 054016 017 021 000 00
133430 2415N 09023W 8430 01569 0097 +181 +060 052016 016 021 000 00
133500 2414N 09022W 8429 01572 0097 +180 +061 045015 016 021 000 00
133530 2412N 09021W 8430 01569 0095 +183 +062 043016 017 022 000 00
133600 2411N 09020W 8430 01569 0094 +185 +063 048016 016 021 000 00
133630 2410N 09019W 8428 01571 0092 +185 +064 043015 016 023 001 03
133700 2408N 09018W 8429 01569 0090 +185 +064 042017 017 025 000 03
133730 2407N 09017W 8430 01565 0086 +187 +065 037015 016 024 000 00

[Meso]

You can take over from me Dave, should probably get some work done

[RL3AO]

I don't even think it has a circulation anymore.





If you we're in the chat room guys you'd get the joke.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

If that chart covers the whole Gulf then it's pretty hard to apply it to one area. Lapse rates can vary tremendously from the Bay of Campeche, for example, to western Florida on any given day. I don't see how it can be of use for a particular storm. Of much more use are those numbers along the progged storm track as it's occurring.

Ozone - many thanks and fully agree - the granularity in one figure is poor especially when considering such a local feature as Don. That said, and for the sake of argument, if soundings in front of Don were indicative of a similarly low-level of instability, would this not be quite important in assessing the prognosis for intensity?

[sphelps8681]

I also agree with the northward shift after looking at some of the model runs.

[Dave]

You can take over from me Dave, should probably get some work done

Go ahead, I'll take it now..I just finished doing some work.

[Dave]

607
URNT15 KNHC 281347
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 23 20110728
133800 2406N 09015W 8429 01560 0081 +187 +065 029014 014 023 000 03
133830 2405N 09014W 8430 01555 0075 +190 +065 024013 013 024 001 00
133900 2404N 09012W 8432 01555 0073 +190 +066 019014 014 024 002 00
133930 2403N 09011W 8428 01555 0071 +189 +066 019014 015 022 000 00
134000 2402N 09009W 8433 01548 0070 +190 +065 021016 018 019 001 00
134030 2402N 09008W 8430 01550 0071 +184 +065 019017 018 020 001 03
134100 2401N 09006W 8433 01544 0069 +183 +065 017015 016 022 000 03
134130 2400N 09004W 8429 01545 0063 +190 +064 017015 017 023 000 00
134200 2359N 09003W 8430 01543 0062 +186 +064 011017 018 023 001 03
134230 2359N 09001W 8430 01538 0057 +189 +064 006018 018 024 000 00
134300 2358N 08959W 8432 01532 0046 +195 +064 005017 018 027 001 00
134330 2358N 08958W 8424 01537 0040 +197 +064 335013 014 030 000 03
134400 2357N 08956W 8432 01521 0033 +198 +065 300015 016 029 002 00
134430 2357N 08954W 8428 01518 0026 +200 +066 280015 017 029 001 00
134500 2357N 08952W 8433 01515 0027 +196 +067 246018 019 023 001 03
134530 2358N 08950W 8429 01520 0026 +201 +069 220018 020 /// /// 03
134600 2359N 08950W 8438 01506 0010 +224 +071 159018 020 /// /// 03
134630 2401N 08952W 8440 01499 9995 +238 +076 113026 030 026 000 03
134700 2401N 08954W 8438 01507 9992 +253 +081 093029 030 027 001 00
134730 2402N 08956W 8432 01520 0002 +246 +087 079031 032 026 001 03
$$
;

[artist]

Been following this site for a couple years now and never posted so here goes. I see the term "floater" often and
I don't have a clue what this is. My guess is that it is a satelite that can be programmed to track a storm but just a guess. Can someone help me out here.

you are exactly right. Here is the NHC page to the floaters for you -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
When they are interested in a disturbance they move the floaters to them to follow. Sometimes, though, the additional floaters may still be focused on an old area until a new area crops up.
And welcome to s2k. Feel free to ask any questions you may have. There are many pros here as well as what I call pro - amateurs that can usually help you out. Sometimes the boards get to going so fast and furious though, a post can be overlooked, so don't take it personally. The passion just gets in the way sometimes around here!

[hriverajr]

Although models are more in consensus and are now narrowing in around Corpus. I don't think its going to make much of a right turn.

[HURAKAN]

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the center is almost exposed...northerly shear?

[Dave]

211
URNT15 KNHC 281357
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 24 20110728
134800 2404N 08957W 8436 01518 0007 +244 +091 081028 030 /// /// 03
134830 2404N 08955W 8433 01522 0001 +253 +094 090027 028 /// /// 03
134900 2403N 08955W 8464 01483 9998 +254 +096 091024 026 028 000 03
134930 2401N 08955W 8457 01488 9995 +248 +097 082022 025 /// /// 03
135000 2400N 08955W 8454 01488 0002 +232 +096 032006 014 018 000 03
135030 2358N 08954W 8417 01529 0025 +200 +092 265014 016 024 000 03
135100 2357N 08952W 8435 01523 0045 +187 +084 241023 026 031 003 00
135130 2356N 08951W 8435 01522 0046 +185 +075 231025 026 034 003 00
135200 2355N 08950W 8430 01539 0060 +178 +066 224025 026 031 002 00
135230 2354N 08949W 8426 01545 0065 +178 +058 219024 025 031 001 00
135300 2352N 08947W 8434 01539 0070 +174 +052 216023 023 035 005 00
135330 2351N 08946W 8423 01549 0068 +179 +044 220023 023 042 008 00
135400 2350N 08945W 8435 01541 0069 +185 +036 217024 027 047 010 03
135430 2349N 08944W 8432 01551 0078 +180 +031 206026 030 040 003 00
135500 2348N 08943W 8429 01552 0082 +175 +031 208026 028 037 002 00
135530 2347N 08941W 8435 01550 0085 +176 +032 200026 029 035 001 00
135600 2346N 08940W 8426 01558 0086 +174 +035 200028 029 034 004 00
135630 2345N 08939W 8417 01568 0098 +159 +036 206030 035 042 021 03
135700 2344N 08938W 8435 01549 0092 +164 +033 207031 032 042 006 00
135730 2342N 08937W 8429 01560 0093 +169 +029 211027 028 040 003 00
$$
;

[Stormcenter]

It sure looks that way.

Looks like the center is almost exposed...northerly shear?

[ozonepete]

Ozone - many thanks and fully agree - the granularity in one figure is poor especially when considering such a local feature as Don. That said, and for the sake of argument, if soundings in front of Don were indicative of a similarly low-level of instability, would this not be quite important in assessing the prognosis for intensity?

Absolutely. But of course the level of instability is governed by a number of different synoptic and mesoscale features that affect it, such as divergence and convergence at different levels as well as the temperature and humidity profiles. The NOAA Gulfstream jets are occasionally sent out to get samples at multiple levels along a tropical cyclone's path and have been very useful for that. I don't know if any such missions are scheduled for Don (anyone else know?)

[Stormcenter]

I think Corpus or bit north of that looks like the best bet right now. IMO

Although models are more in consensus and are now narrowing in around Corpus. I don't think its going to make much of a right turn.

[HURAKAN]

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