ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

Detailed VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:22Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:50:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°59'N 89°55'W (23.9833N 89.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 414 miles (667 km) to the S (179°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,442m (4,731ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 81° at 32kts (From the E at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NNW (346°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:57:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:15:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE SONDE MEASURED 1004MB WITH 17 KTS SFC WIND
FEEDERBAND CROSSING SE OUTBOUND LEG 70 NM SE OF CTR
COR FOR MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND IN CONVECTIVE BAND

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

410
URNT15 KNHC 281427
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 27 20110728
141800 2300N 08850W 8429 01592 0130 +162 +043 182029 032 035 000 03
141830 2259N 08850W 8432 01586 0130 +165 +046 182028 029 033 002 03
141900 2258N 08849W 8432 01588 0130 +165 +049 176032 032 033 000 00
141930 2257N 08848W 8429 01591 0130 +167 +051 184031 032 032 001 00
142000 2256N 08847W 8434 01586 0128 +170 +053 182029 031 031 000 00
142030 2255N 08845W 8426 01596 0129 +170 +055 183028 028 031 000 00
142100 2254N 08844W 8431 01591 0129 +171 +057 179027 027 030 000 00
142130 2253N 08843W 8430 01592 0128 +171 +058 178026 027 030 001 00
142200 2252N 08842W 8430 01591 0126 +172 +059 178025 025 028 001 00
142230 2251N 08841W 8430 01592 0127 +174 +060 177025 025 029 000 00
142300 2250N 08840W 8431 01592 0127 +175 +060 176025 025 029 001 00
142330 2248N 08839W 8433 01591 0129 +173 +061 173025 026 028 001 00
142400 2247N 08838W 8428 01595 0132 +167 +061 166026 026 027 001 03
142430 2246N 08837W 8432 01591 0130 +169 +061 167026 026 027 001 00
142500 2245N 08835W 8430 01594 0131 +170 +060 167026 026 027 000 00
142530 2244N 08834W 8432 01594 0132 +170 +059 167026 026 027 000 00
142600 2243N 08833W 8430 01595 0134 +168 +059 166025 025 027 000 00
142630 2242N 08832W 8432 01595 0134 +169 +058 165025 025 025 000 00
142700 2241N 08831W 8430 01597 0134 +170 +058 166024 024 024 000 03
142730 2240N 08830W 8433 01595 0134 +170 +058 166024 025 022 001 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Shear has been a problem, even the NHC stated that the core wasn't at all well stacked, which is classic of a sheared system...thats also probably helped to wedge the dry air into the northern part of the system as well...its something of a double hit in that respect.

northern part of the circulation is exposed, but the actual LLC is just about under the convection still...

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:22Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:50:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°59'N 89°55'W (23.9833N 89.9167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 414 miles (667 km) to the S (179°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,442m (4,731ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 81° at 32kts (From the E at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NNW (346°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:57:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:15:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE SONDE MEASURED 1004MB WITH 17 KTS SFC WIND
FEEDERBAND CROSSING SE OUTBOUND LEG 70 NM SE OF CTR
COR FOR MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND IN CONVECTIVE BAND

[ozonepete]

Ozone: More to do with dry air ingested overnight rather than other factors. Recon OBS are telling. We'll see if convection can overcome DP spreads...

Thanks, Jason. Totally agree that the mid-level dry air was killing the convection last night. I am rusty on the VDM. Where's the dewpoint readings?

[JtSmarts]

It's current appearance reminds me a bit of Bonnie 2004 when she was a ball of convection with her center located at the northern edge.

[ConvergenceZone]

Shear has been a problem, even the NHC stated that the core wasn't at all well stacked, which is classic of a sheared system...thats also probably helped to wedge the dry air into the northern part of the system as well...its something of a double hit in that respect.

northern part of the circulation is exposed, but the actual LLC is just about under the convection still...

At least the chance of this going hurricane is diminishing by the hour the longer it takes to get going. I just wish it was larger though to provide more rain to Texas. Oh well, the season's still really early....

[ozonepete]

Ozone: More to do with dry air ingested overnight rather than other factors. Recon OBS are telling. We'll see if convection can overcome DP spreads...

Thanks, Jason. Totally agree that the mid-level dry air was killing the convection last night. I am rusty on the VDM. Where's the dewpoint readings?

Never mind, I found it (the K entry).

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Dew points are a lot higher today. Yesterday (when they we're flying at 1000 ft) dew points were around 16 to 18C. Today the dropsondes show dew points around 23 to 26C at the same height.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the lastest sat. loop it's interesting to note how the flow
"looks" like it's pulling Don toward the NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Dave]

824
URNT15 KNHC 281437
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 28 20110728
142800 2241N 08829W 8427 01599 0135 +168 +059 163025 025 /// /// 03
142830 2242N 08829W 8434 01595 0134 +170 +061 158025 026 024 000 03
142900 2244N 08829W 8430 01592 0131 +168 +064 158026 026 025 000 00
142930 2246N 08830W 8430 01591 0131 +165 +065 159026 026 026 000 00
143000 2248N 08830W 8430 01590 0131 +165 +065 159027 027 027 001 00
143030 2250N 08830W 8430 01590 0130 +165 +064 158028 028 026 000 00
143100 2252N 08830W 8430 01591 0128 +168 +064 158028 028 027 000 00
143130 2253N 08831W 8430 01591 0127 +171 +064 157028 028 027 000 00
143200 2255N 08831W 8432 01591 0129 +170 +064 156028 028 026 000 03
143230 2257N 08831W 8430 01592 0129 +170 +064 157028 028 026 000 00
143300 2259N 08831W 8431 01591 0131 +166 +063 157028 029 027 000 00
143330 2301N 08832W 8430 01592 0131 +167 +062 156028 028 026 000 00
143400 2303N 08832W 8430 01592 0132 +166 +062 156029 029 027 000 00
143430 2304N 08832W 8432 01590 0130 +168 +061 155029 029 028 000 00
143500 2306N 08832W 8430 01591 0128 +170 +061 155029 029 028 000 00
143530 2308N 08833W 8430 01591 0128 +169 +062 155030 030 027 001 00
143600 2310N 08833W 8430 01590 0127 +170 +062 155030 030 029 001 00
143630 2312N 08833W 8430 01589 0125 +171 +063 158030 030 028 001 00
143700 2314N 08833W 8429 01590 0122 +172 +064 159030 030 028 000 00
143730 2316N 08834W 8430 01588 0122 +174 +065 161030 030 028 000 00
$$
;

[AggieSpirit]

Please use your weather voodoo powers to do three things:

A) Not allow the storm to strengthen to hurricane status to minimize any damage to Texas coast.
B) Not allow the storm to be a prolific tornado producer.
C) Guide the system towards Dallas as a depression/low after landfall.

We REALLY need the rain inland!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT DON IS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY....AND REACH THE
TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA PEREZ IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

From 10 AM CDT advisory.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

[HURAKAN]

[micktooth]

Latest visible

Look how small Don is. The thunderstorm complex in the northern Gulf is larger. It's amazing how variable the size of these storms can be. Compare Don to Rita or Katrina (in size)...

[KWT]

At least the chance of this going hurricane is diminishing by the hour the longer it takes to get going.

Whilst true there is still more then enough time for it to get going, esp if the shear eases off and the system mixes out the dry air better on its northern flank.

[Dave]

899
URNT15 KNHC 281447
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 29 20110728
143800 2317N 08834W 8430 01588 0123 +173 +065 161030 030 027 001 00
143830 2319N 08834W 8432 01588 0124 +170 +066 159030 030 027 001 00
143900 2321N 08834W 8430 01590 0125 +170 +066 158031 031 027 000 00
143930 2323N 08835W 8430 01590 0126 +170 +065 158031 031 027 000 00
144000 2325N 08835W 8430 01589 0125 +170 +063 158031 032 027 000 00
144030 2327N 08835W 8429 01591 0126 +170 +062 157032 032 028 001 00
144100 2329N 08835W 8432 01588 0124 +172 +061 155032 032 029 000 00
144130 2330N 08836W 8429 01591 0126 +170 +061 154032 033 028 000 00
144200 2332N 08836W 8432 01589 0127 +170 +060 155032 032 029 000 00
144230 2334N 08836W 8430 01590 0127 +170 +060 154033 033 029 000 00
144300 2336N 08837W 8430 01590 0127 +170 +061 153033 034 029 001 00
144330 2338N 08837W 8429 01591 0124 +175 +061 154033 034 030 000 00
144400 2340N 08837W 8429 01590 0123 +174 +060 154033 033 030 001 00
144430 2342N 08837W 8432 01588 0123 +172 +059 153034 034 027 000 00
144500 2344N 08838W 8429 01589 0124 +169 +057 153035 036 022 001 00
144530 2345N 08838W 8433 01585 0127 +163 +056 151037 037 016 000 00
144600 2347N 08838W 8426 01589 0121 +171 +054 151039 040 021 001 00
144630 2349N 08838W 8432 01585 0120 +175 +053 148039 040 026 000 00
144700 2351N 08839W 8431 01585 0119 +176 +055 150039 039 023 002 00
144730 2353N 08839W 8433 01585 0123 +168 +057 147039 040 026 001 00
$$
;