Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

#61 Postby **Fego** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:43 am

Although dry air is present, models continue to be aggresive with this pouch vorticity. Here a nice GFS graphic.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/anisc ... +Potential

Frank2 · #62 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:59 am

Doesn't look as impressive as it did yesterday, and as said earlier NOAA has removed the surface low from their 06Z analysis - right now it's just a broad circulation with not much convection but lots of dry air around it, and as KWT said if this were one month from now the outcome might have been different:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

right now both that and the wave passing through the Lesser Antilles do not seem very impressive - but neither does Don, for that matter...

Frank2

ConvergenceZone · #63 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:24 am

Frank2 wrote:Doesn't look as impressive as it did yesterday, and as said earlier NOAA has removed the surface low from their 06Z analysis - right now it's just a broad circulation with not much convection but lots of dry air around it, and as KWT said if this were one month from now the outcome might have been different:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

right now both that and the wave passing through the Lesser Antilles do not seem very impressive - but neither does Don, for that matter...

Frank2

Give them time Frank

. That's the thing about July. Storms/Invests in July don't suppose to be impressive(that won't happen until August), but every now and then one will rise to the occasion....

#64 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:26 am

The Low is back!!! TAFB at the 12z surface analysis placed back the low.

Uploaded by imageshack.us

Gustywind · #65 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:44 am

cycloneye wrote:The Low is back!!! TAFB at the 12z surface analysis placed back the low.

Uploaded by imageshack.us

A low very... low in latitude :roll:

. Let's continue to keep an eye on this one during the next couple of days.

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:48 am

From the predict team,here is their latest synopsis of P10L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P10L.html

SYNOPSIS 2011072800

P10L

ECMWF: Relatively smooth west-northwest track of a distinct pouch.

GFS: Beginning to lose its "ITCZ excitation" storyline. Although the pouch initially tracks south of west with a slight weakening, the evidence for an ITCZ excitation is not so obvious. P10L is a large, distinct pouch that then moves west-northwest and actually strengthens slightly as it enters the Caribbean.

UKMET: Except for a early "dip" to the south, the track is to the west-northwest with gradual intensification.

NOGAPS: Slower than other models, but NOGAPS still maintains a distinct pouch to 120 hours.

KWT · #67 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:56 am

FWIW I would not be the least bit surprised if it tries to form west of say 50-55W, the same area Don flared up, howev er I'm not convinced conditions in the E.Caribbean are going to be any better then they were for pre-Don.

#68 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:59 am

If it were not for Don, I would be all over this system. I will call her "pre-Emily." This system has what it takes to be a long track storm West of 50W. I will elaborate later. Back to Don.

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:37 pm

The Canadian continues to develop this wave,although it does so near the islands and less strong than the past 00z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

ConvergenceZone · #70 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:37 pm

KWT wrote:FWIW I would not be the least bit surprised if it tries to form west of say 50-55W, the same area Don flared up, howev er I'm not convinced conditions in the E.Caribbean are going to be any better then they were for pre-Don.

Yea, that's July for ya. I can only imagine that once we get to August, these struggling systems that develop will no longer
be struggling.

#71 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:55 pm

2 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N38W TO 14N33W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSING ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 07N38W. AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 30W-38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN
33W-39W.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #72 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:16 pm

Strong model support for TS Emily out of this...Could be a USA threat-er or a OTS storm.

#73 Postby **BigA** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:24 pm

12Z Euro closes if off east of the Lesser Antilles...lets see if it holds on to it.

#74 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:42 pm

12z EURO near PR as a closed entity.

#75 Postby **MississippiWx** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:08 pm

Sea surface temperatures have warmed significantly in the past couple of weeks. The water along this wave's path is between 28-30C. With light shear, the only obstacle is going to be any dry air that's around:

caneseddy · #76 Postby **caneseddy** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:10 pm

12z Euro eventually curves it out to sea east of Bahamas

Florida1118 · #77 Postby **Florida1118** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:10 pm

Well it seems were going to get Emily, but at what point/timeframe?

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #78 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:15 pm

Florida1118 wrote:Well it seems were going to get Emily, but at what point/timeframe?

Most models develop it east of the antilles, so by the weekend or early next week.

Aric Dunn · #79 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:17 pm

IT is looking quite impressive this afternoon. vorticity is increasing along with deep semi-organized convection building. would be very surprised if at the 8pm NHC does not say anything..

Aric Dunn · #80 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:19 pm

Watch the southern portion around 39w below 10n. convergence is high and the vorticity good. would be the likely area for a more defined LLC to develop over the next day or two

Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch P10L SW of CV islands - It has a Low Pressure

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Re:

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Re: Pouch P10L with low SW of CV islands

Who is online