ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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SunnyThoughts
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Re:

#2661 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:30 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Don's mid-level and low-level centers are decoupling...Shear is really doing a number on the system. Additionally, the lowest pressure recon just found was 1005 mb. Not looking good for Don or Texas.


154800 2417N 09018W 8427 01534 0020 +235 +083 131021 027 028 000 00


1002 was the lowest pressure found that pass.
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Re: ATL: DON - Models

#2662 Postby TexWx » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:30 am

I thought i was seeing that....

Nice knowing you...
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2663 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:31 am

Unfortanately this isnt looking like a drought buster for centel Texas. Looks like south of a Corpus to Austin to Kerrville line could get a few inches but nothing spectacular. College station toward Midland misses out. Of course this must have something to do with it sucking in dry air from the high or something, because these storms usually come in this time of year pretty soupy and soggy. Of course its small size and relatively weak core doesnt help the rain prospects. Towards the panhandle is still going to get nothing . ON the bright side some moisture will get entrained into the monsoon which will eventually find its way toward el paso, and parts of NM and southern colorado, which can always use the rain. heres hoping it comes in wetter than it looks.
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#2664 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:31 am

Looking at 12Z GFS forecast, it shows the 500mb circulation decoupling from the rest of the storm and heading due west. That might not be all that unreasonable...
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#2665 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:31 am

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Re:

#2666 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:36 am

Well to my eyes in "looks" like Don's circulation is still headed NW even though the some of the convection is moving westward.

SouthDadeFish wrote:Looking at 12Z GFS forecast, it shows the 500mb circulation decoupling from the rest of the storm and heading due west. That might not be all that unreasonable...
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Re: Re:

#2667 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:37 am

KWT wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Those outflow boundaries are also telling us there's still dry air getting into the system at mid-levels. That could remain an issue all the way to the coast, although lower levels have moistened nicely - you guys posted 23-25C dewpoints at flight level from RECON.


Yep and if I remember what Derek Ortt used to say correctly, thats nearly always related to some form of mid level shear occuring which allows the dry air to drive into the core of the system.


Good old Derek. :D Yes, you need something to "inject" that drier air into the mid levels, and there's nothing like shear to do it.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2668 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:37 am

Sanibel wrote:Sometimes there tends to be a "stage-clearer" like Bonnie in 2004 followed by a better developed system. I thought Don was going to muscle-up. Anyway, I fear this won't deliver much moisture.



Yea Sanibel, conditions just aren't that great in the gulf right now. It should still maintain it's tropical storm or tropical depression status by the time it hits land. I just hope the rain event is still there.
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#2669 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:39 am

212
URNT15 KNHC 281637
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 40 20110728
162800 2327N 09020W 8427 01572 0100 +170 +071 221016 016 /// /// 03
162830 2327N 09018W 8434 01566 0100 +174 +073 220015 016 /// /// 03
162900 2327N 09016W 8432 01568 0099 +174 +075 220016 016 /// /// 03
162930 2327N 09015W 8425 01575 0099 +175 +077 216016 016 /// /// 03
163000 2327N 09013W 8433 01567 0099 +177 +077 209016 016 /// /// 03
163030 2328N 09011W 8430 01573 0102 +178 +078 209015 016 /// /// 03
163100 2328N 09009W 8431 01573 0102 +177 +078 203014 015 /// /// 03
163130 2328N 09008W 8428 01575 0104 +172 +077 197013 014 032 001 03
163200 2328N 09006W 8430 01574 0107 +171 +077 193016 017 033 000 03
163230 2328N 09004W 8430 01575 0106 +173 +075 190019 020 033 000 03
163300 2329N 09002W 8430 01575 0109 +170 +074 188020 021 033 000 03
163330 2329N 09001W 8430 01577 0111 +170 +074 187019 020 033 000 00
163400 2329N 08959W 8432 01575 0112 +169 +072 189022 022 034 000 03
163430 2329N 08957W 8431 01579 0115 +170 +071 194019 021 034 000 03
163500 2329N 08956W 8429 01582 0115 +170 +069 190018 018 034 000 03
163530 2329N 08954W 8431 01579 0115 +170 +068 186016 017 034 000 00
163600 2330N 08952W 8432 01580 0117 +170 +067 183016 016 034 000 03
163630 2330N 08950W 8430 01583 0117 +172 +066 182017 017 035 000 03
163700 2330N 08949W 8431 01586 0118 +175 +065 184020 022 035 000 00
163730 2330N 08947W 8430 01586 0122 +171 +066 180025 026 035 001 00
$$
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#2670 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:39 am

His circulation still is, but that is in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. The mid-level circulation is slowly getting tilted with height due to wind shear.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2671 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:40 am

Please observe the visible, zoomed out a bit.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

See the shear (sw cloud movement) behind the system compared to the lack of appreciable shear in front of the system? Also keep in mind that when shear abates systems tend to to some reorganization as convection moves around. I have no idea what Don will do but I do know shear forecasts are almost always wrong, so keep that in mind. :)

If you follow the shear maps over time:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Don seems to be moving in unison with the shear, so if it gets out ahead it may have a chance to strengthen.
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2672 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:41 am

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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2673 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:42 am

tolakram wrote:Please observe the visible, zoomed out a bit.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

See the shear (sw cloud movement) behind the system compared to the lack of appreciable shear in front of the system? Also keep in mind that when shear abates systems tend to to some reorganization as convection moves around. I have no idea what Don will do but I do know shear forecasts are almost always wrong, so keep that in mind. :)


Look at how many outflow boundaries shoot out to the N. That's a lot of collapsing convection.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2674 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:43 am

tolakram wrote:Please observe the visible, zoomed out a bit.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

See the shear (sw cloud movement) behind the system compared to the lack of appreciable shear in front of the system? Also keep in mind that when shear abates systems tend to to some reorganization as convection moves around. I have no idea what Don will do but I do know shear forecasts are almost always wrong, so keep that in mind. :)


Totally agree. It's a major reason why the models (and thus a lot of us) still often can't forecast strength well at all.
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#2675 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:50 am

101
URNT15 KNHC 281647
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 41 20110728
163800 2330N 08945W 8429 01585 0120 +170 +066 179026 026 035 000 03
163830 2331N 08944W 8429 01586 0121 +170 +065 183026 026 036 000 03
163900 2331N 08942W 8432 01586 0124 +170 +064 182025 026 035 000 00
163930 2331N 08940W 8426 01591 0126 +166 +064 185026 027 034 000 00
164000 2331N 08939W 8429 01586 0126 +167 +063 182024 024 027 001 03
164030 2333N 08938W 8434 01583 0129 +161 +063 177024 025 /// /// 03
164100 2334N 08940W 8431 01586 0127 +165 +062 169020 021 033 000 00
164130 2335N 08941W 8430 01585 0122 +170 +061 162019 020 036 000 03
164200 2336N 08942W 8430 01586 0126 +165 +059 160020 021 037 001 00
164230 2337N 08944W 8429 01589 0125 +166 +057 159019 021 037 002 00
164300 2339N 08945W 8429 01586 0122 +168 +055 161019 019 038 002 00
164330 2340N 08946W 8429 01586 0123 +168 +055 167020 020 038 001 03
164400 2341N 08948W 8431 01583 0120 +170 +056 175020 020 038 000 03
164430 2342N 08949W 8429 01583 0117 +170 +057 174019 020 038 001 00
164500 2343N 08950W 8432 01577 0114 +168 +059 173019 019 038 000 03
164530 2345N 08951W 8427 01582 0113 +171 +059 170017 017 039 001 03
164600 2346N 08953W 8430 01577 0108 +177 +059 175019 019 039 000 03
164630 2347N 08954W 8433 01576 0109 +178 +060 177021 022 038 000 03
164700 2348N 08955W 8429 01580 0111 +173 +061 175023 023 039 002 00
164730 2349N 08957W 8430 01578 0114 +170 +062 176023 023 040 003 00
$$
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#2676 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:56 am

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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2677 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:56 am

Remember an exposed Don moves differently than a deeply layered Don...

More southerly low level flow means Don moves further N as a weaker system...
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#2678 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:59 am

695
URNT15 KNHC 281657
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 42 20110728
164800 2351N 08958W 8432 01574 0109 +174 +060 176022 022 040 003 00
164830 2352N 08959W 8432 01573 0108 +174 +059 175022 023 040 003 00
164900 2353N 09000W 8430 01574 0109 +170 +059 178023 024 039 001 00
164930 2354N 09002W 8429 01576 0109 +170 +059 184021 021 038 001 00
165000 2355N 09003W 8429 01579 0113 +170 +059 186018 019 038 001 00
165030 2357N 09004W 8429 01578 0110 +171 +058 185018 019 038 001 03
165100 2358N 09006W 8432 01573 0107 +173 +059 188021 022 038 000 03
165130 2359N 09007W 8428 01578 0106 +176 +060 188023 023 038 000 03
165200 2359N 09007W 8428 01578 0103 +172 +063 178024 025 037 001 03
165230 2401N 09009W 8433 01571 0104 +172 +064 171026 026 040 000 03
165300 2403N 09011W 8426 01574 0109 +163 +064 176029 030 041 005 00
165330 2404N 09012W 8435 01563 0108 +160 +063 179022 024 040 005 00
165400 2405N 09013W 8424 01572 0099 +171 +059 167019 020 039 001 00
165430 2406N 09015W 8430 01568 0094 +180 +056 164016 018 039 001 00
165500 2407N 09016W 8425 01572 0094 +179 +057 165016 018 039 000 00
165530 2409N 09017W 8424 01571 0097 +170 +060 166018 019 037 002 00
165600 2410N 09019W 8429 01566 0098 +168 +061 179017 018 038 003 00
165630 2411N 09020W 8428 01566 0091 +174 +061 178016 016 039 002 00
165700 2412N 09021W 8424 01566 0088 +176 +060 183018 019 040 003 00
165730 2413N 09022W 8430 01561 0091 +172 +061 181015 017 039 000 03
$$
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#2679 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:01 pm

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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2680 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:05 pm

Don is looking pretty pitiful but the shear appears to be calming down some. Will have to wait and see if Don regains some of its organization.

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