Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

Gustywind · #82 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:

Nice loop Cycloneye

Any link for this loop :wink:

?

#83 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:30 pm

Latest visible

Aric Dunn · #84 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:36 pm

I think after looking at everything today and the trends I would wager a little money on this developing quicker than expected.

Aric Dunn · #85 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:41 pm

This general area. looks to have the greatest vorticity and angular momentum and best chance to develop a LLC

#86 Postby **psyclone** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:42 pm

this one sure does have that look. even if it doesn't develop it serves as an indication that the heart of the season is close at hand.

Aric Dunn · #87 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:45 pm

psyclone wrote:this one sure does have that look. even if it doesn't develop it serves as an indication that the heart of the season is close at hand.

the low latitude give it a good chance. the area I circled should see a decent convective burst tonight and tomorrow and if it hold we will see a TC probably the following day.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #88 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
psyclone wrote:this one sure does have that look. even if it doesn't develop it serves as an indication that the heart of the season is close at hand.

the low latitude give it a good chance. the area I circled should see a decent convective burst tonight and tomorrow and if it hold we will see a TC probably the following day.

Saturday? That may be a little too early...I'm thinking more along the lines of Sunday-Tuesday.

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:49 pm

IMO,NHC may start to mention it on the 8 PM TWO,followed by 91L being up overnight or Friday morning. All that,if trends continue like they are now.

Aric Dunn · #90 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:IMO,NHC may start to mention it on the 8 PM TWO,followed by 91L being up overnight or Friday morning. All that,if trends continue like they are now.

Right you would think so at least... but with what we just saw with 90L ... who knows.. lol

Florida1118 · #91 Postby **Florida1118** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:50 pm

This season is going to suck alot more than 2010. Ya probably a 8pm mention of "some slow development is possible over the next fews days...20%" and gets Invested soon after IMO

Aric Dunn · #92 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:55 pm

RammB has Floater on it

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #93 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:55 pm

I'm surprised that the NHC hasn't mentioned it already. They rely heavily on model support, and this wave has a lot of it. We'll see it mentioned soon, and it will be declared an invest soon.

#94 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:57 pm

Florida1118 wrote:This season is going to suck alot more than 2010. Ya probably a 8pm mention of "some slow development is possible over the next fews days...20%" and gets Invested soon after IMO

What do you mean the season will suck a lot more than 2010? Do you mean that in terms of a lot of recurves or because you think more landfalls will happen?

Florida1118 · #95 Postby **Florida1118** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:58 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:This season is going to suck alot more than 2010. Ya probably a 8pm mention of "some slow development is possible over the next fews days...20%" and gets Invested soon after IMO

What do you mean the season will suck a lot more than 2010? Do you mean that in terms of a lot of recurves or because you think more landfalls will happen?

Im thinking more landfalls. I'd love if 2010 happened over and over.

HurricaneWarning92 · #96 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:07 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:This season is going to suck alot more than 2010. Ya probably a 8pm mention of "some slow development is possible over the next fews days...20%" and gets Invested soon after IMO

What do you mean the season will suck a lot more than 2010? Do you mean that in terms of a lot of recurves or because you think more landfalls will happen?

I think he meant that there will be more landfalls. i read an article around May or June i believe on accuweather and they said that this season is expected to have more landfalling storms because the weather patterns are different than last years. Last year there was a huge trough that basically acted like a shield and "protected" the entire Southeastern coast. They dont expect that feature to be there this year, or at least not as strong.

#97 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:10 pm

Interesting. Does anybody have links to models that show what the upcoming patterns will look like for August? Correct me if I am wrong but the last couple of months or so have seen this huge ridge of high pressure near the east coast and very little dips in the jet stream. Will the pattern change to have more troughing in the East Coast?

#98 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:11 pm

This system looks like it will face similar issues that 90L had when it was in that same area.

Notice all of the dry air over the MDR (orange shading in image below) - again typical of July.

WV image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

Model support is there though, but none of them really deepen this system at all through 168 hours.

They just keep the system as a closed off low with the CMC as usual the most agressive.

I would say that some slow development is possible, but its going to be a long process again mostly because of the dry air it is going to face.

Then later on, one would expect there to be at least one TUTT somewhere in the Caribbean that may help further prevent development. In fact the GFS drops it at the end because of hostile upper-level conditions in the Central Caribbean.

Still about 2-3 weeks early for development in the MDR but we are getting closer and that dry air should move out over the next few weeks.

Aric Dunn · #99 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:13 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Interesting. Does anybody have links to models that show what the upcoming patterns will look like for August? Correct me if I am wrong but the last couple of months or so have seen this huge ridge of high pressure near the east coast and very little dips in the jet stream. Will the pattern change to have more troughing in the East Coast?

Actually its been troughy on the east coast and strong ridge in the central us ( hence the heat ) the pattern is in the process of changing as the ridge as slid to east coast now.

Aric Dunn · #100 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:This system looks like it will face similar issues that 90L had when it was in that same area.

Notice all of the dry air over the MDR - again typical of July.

Model support is there though, but none of them really deepen this system at all through 168 hours.

They just keep the system as a closed off low with the CMC as usual the most agressive.

I would say that some slow development is possible, but its going to be a long process again mostly because of the dry air it is going to face:

WV image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

you have to watch out for that.. thats upper level water vapor. and the TPW is quite high. Also this system has much more pronuced circulation and high vorticity. its also large and will draw in large amounts of moisture. I should have a higher chance to develop than 90L before the islands.

Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

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