ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[JGrin87]

Any chance the area to the NE of the center gets pulled into the circulation?

+1

[Portastorm]

The primary cloud area barely covers the greater houston metroplex area in size!

I'll laugh to keep from crying ... geez.

[red herring]

That's a pretty good model consensus! All have shifted south! I think central to upper TX coast can go ahead write this one off! Corpus to Brownsville it is!




-----------
eryThe following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wouldn't be so sure of that....Don is very dynamic

[SunnyThoughts]

Got some of those white cold cloud tops starting to fire.


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[SunnyThoughts]

oh well, can't seem to get my images to load anymore. I promise the white cloud tops are there though! lol

[Florida1118]

oh well, can't seem to get my images to load anymore. I promise the white cloud tops are there though! lol

Its okay, alot of us probably have 5 tabs of loops running anyway

[plasticup]

And to think that I was berated just 36 hours ago for pointing out that this storm was facing heavy shear and stable, dry air. Huh.

With over 100 pages of discussion for a minimal ts, how many pages will show up if a major hurricane (heaven forbid) shows up?

Oh, they get huge. Even if the storm doesn't make landfall, the threads become enormous. At peak times, you get a whole page of posts every 1-2 minutes.

[cycloneye]

And to think that I was berated just 36 hours ago for pointing out that this storm was facing heavy shear and stable, dry air. Huh.

With over 100 pages of discussion for a minimal ts, how many pages will show up if a major hurricane (heaven forbid) shows up?

Oh, they get huge. Even if the storm doesn't make landfall, the threads become enormous. At peak times, you get a whole page of posts every 1-2 minutes.

Off topic=Sunnyday,you can visit the archieves forum and see how big many threads of systems were.

viewforum.php?f=54

[Snow Deprived365]

Houston....We have a problem.

[Swimdude]

The primary cloud area barely covers the greater houston metroplex area in size!

But remember--anything can happen as far as size of the storm after landfall. Take Hurricane Dolly (2008) for example. Landfall just North of Brownsville. No rain in Houston on that day--not a drop. The next two days (as Dolly made her way through deep South Texas, Houston got a BUNCH of rain from feeder bands. You never know until it's over and done with!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah im hoping that the fact that a low pressure is in the arrea with all of the heat that some storms will fire up. Thats our best bet if this storm doesnt become much larger

[KWT]

As others have said, model consensus has swung back southwards, enough for the NHC to adjust a little southwards closer to the consensus track.

[JonathanBelles]

Kermits up and flying in from MacDill.

[TwisterFanatic]

Not dead by a long shot.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, at least Don doesn't look quite as bad as it did earlier as recon was leaving.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...DON MOVING BRISKLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON
SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

DON HAS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE STORM. IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF
ARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION. DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 1005 MB...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WINDS
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14. DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND
LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL. THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY
AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A
HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY
THE 72 HR POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 24.9N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.8N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 27.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 28.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 30.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Well its bursting quite nicely at the moment, structucally it still isn't the best but the heat content is really helping this systwem to fire up deep convection and so I think some strengthening is likely soon then later, I think it'll get to 50-55kts with this latest burst.

[SunnyThoughts]

Not looking too bad at all right now. NOAA plane in the air headed that way too apparently.

[artist]

Little off topic.. but I always wondered. What determines when Satellite goes into Rapid Scan mode? Seems sometimes that it is completely random.

from this document put out by the NHC
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/downloa ... 684,48,New GOES-East Hurricane Rapid Scan Sector

[TheEuropean]

Next mission on the way to Don:

000
URNT15 KWBC 282034
NOAA2 0304E DON HDOB 04 20110728
202430 2721N 08436W 5970 04533 0169 +024 -040 136021 023 026 000 03
202500 2721N 08439W 5969 04535 0161 +029 -053 132020 020 021 000 00
202530 2720N 08442W 5969 04535 0167 +025 -050 136021 022 021 000 00
202600 2719N 08444W 5969 04536 0175 +021 -036 136022 022 020 000 00
202630 2718N 08447W 5970 04535 0170 +024 -049 133021 022 020 000 00
202700 2717N 08450W 5969 04535 0167 +026 -055 131020 020 021 000 00
202730 2716N 08453W 5969 04534 0165 +026 -055 129020 020 021 000 03
202800 2715N 08455W 5970 04534 0164 +027 -058 131020 020 025 000 03
202830 2714N 08458W 5970 04533 0161 +029 -072 129020 020 024 000 03
202900 2713N 08501W 5969 04535 0164 +028 -061 131019 019 027 000 00
202930 2712N 08503W 5969 04533 0163 +026 -053 133020 020 023 000 00
203000 2711N 08506W 5969 04533 0163 +026 -057 133019 020 021 000 00
203030 2710N 08509W 5970 04533 0164 +026 -060 133019 020 021 000 03
203100 2708N 08511W 5969 04532 0162 +026 -055 135021 022 021 000 03
203130 2707N 08514W 5969 04530 0159 +028 -053 134023 023 022 000 03
203200 2706N 08516W 5969 04529 0157 +028 -057 134023 023 022 000 00
203230 2704N 08518W 5969 04530 0158 +027 -051 134022 022 022 000 00
203300 2703N 08521W 5969 04528 0158 +027 -053 136021 022 023 001 03
203330 2702N 08523W 5969 04530 0156 +029 -062 134021 021 021 000 03
203400 2701N 08526W 5969 04533 0161 +027 -064 135022 023 023 000 00