ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282044
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 05 20110728
203430 2701N 08529W 5969 04529 0156 +029 -070 137023 023 020 000 00
203500 2701N 08532W 5968 04530 0159 +028 -085 136022 023 018 000 00
203530 2700N 08535W 5969 04528 0154 +029 -062 137023 023 022 000 00
203600 2659N 08538W 5968 04529 0151 +030 -053 141023 023 022 000 00
203630 2658N 08541W 5969 04528 0153 +028 -047 141023 023 023 000 00
203700 2657N 08543W 5969 04526 0153 +028 -054 143023 023 022 000 00
203730 2656N 08546W 5969 04528 0156 +027 -058 151022 023 020 000 00
203800 2656N 08549W 5968 04529 0157 +025 -035 151022 022 018 000 00
203830 2655N 08551W 5968 04529 0157 +025 -029 148022 022 020 000 00
203900 2654N 08554W 5969 04529 0157 +026 -031 152021 021 021 000 00
203930 2653N 08557W 5969 04529 0158 +025 -032 153022 023 021 000 00
204000 2652N 08559W 5970 04525 0154 +027 -031 155022 023 021 000 00
204030 2651N 08602W 5968 04528 0156 +026 -033 157022 022 021 000 00
204100 2650N 08604W 5969 04527 0159 +024 -027 155022 022 020 000 00
204130 2649N 08607W 5969 04527 0160 +022 -024 156022 022 022 000 00
204200 2648N 08610W 5969 04525 0160 +021 -023 154022 023 023 000 00
204230 2647N 08612W 5969 04525 0158 +022 -020 153022 022 021 000 00
204300 2646N 08615W 5969 04525 0161 +021 -027 155023 023 019 000 00
204330 2645N 08618W 5970 04525 0160 +022 -026 153022 022 019 000 00
204400 2644N 08620W 5970 04524 0161 +021 -024 150022 022 021 000 00

[KWT]

Yeah I suspect we'll see a slightly stronger Don this time round, say 45-50kts...

[BobHarlem]

5PMs are out and the NHC is mentioning the shear, I don't think it will recover much. If it shears all the convection to the south Don won't even bring all that much rain to the central parts of Texas that it needs.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

5PMs are out and the NHC is mentioning the shear, I don't think it will recover much. If it shears all the convection to the south Don won't even bring all that much rain to the central parts of Texas that it needs.

Agreed. This doesn't seem to be the big rainmaker that we were all hoping about,

[KWT]

5PMs are out and the NHC is mentioning the shear, I don't think it will recover much. If it shears all the convection to the south Don won't even bring all that much rain to the central parts of Texas that it needs.

Whilst true, much also depends on the track after landfall, for example if it lifts up enough to the north it'll still dragging in a more unstable flow for a couple of days which will enhance rain risks.

[wxman57]

5PMs are out and the NHC is mentioning the shear, I don't think it will recover much. If it shears all the convection to the south Don won't even bring all that much rain to the central parts of Texas that it needs.

Agreed. This doesn't seem to be the big rainmaker that we were all hoping about,

Sure it does, take a look at all the deep moisture now streaming toward Texas:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[Tireman4]

5PMs are out and the NHC is mentioning the shear, I don't think it will recover much. If it shears all the convection to the south Don won't even bring all that much rain to the central parts of Texas that it needs.

Agreed. This doesn't seem to be the big rainmaker that we were all hoping about,

But but but, it will moisten the atmosphere and that might give them a better chance at rain than they might have not had before....think positive

[JGrin87]

Don looks to be doing a LOT better. Any thoughts as to why it seems to be doing so much better now?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, good rain heading for Texas. Wind won't be a factor, but the rain will be sooo nice. Just a summer rainstorm heading your way.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282054
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 06 20110728
204430 2643N 08623W 5969 04522 0159 +020 -022 148022 022 022 000 00
204500 2642N 08626W 5969 04522 0156 +021 -022 148022 022 023 000 00
204530 2641N 08628W 5969 04523 0151 +025 -027 149022 023 022 000 03
204600 2640N 08631W 5969 04523 0148 +027 -028 148022 022 022 000 00
204630 2639N 08634W 5969 04521 0154 +022 -019 140022 022 021 000 00
204700 2638N 08636W 5969 04521 0160 +018 -013 134022 022 020 000 00
204730 2637N 08639W 5968 04521 0156 +019 -013 134021 022 020 000 00
204800 2636N 08642W 5968 04521 0156 +020 -014 135020 020 019 000 00
204830 2635N 08644W 5969 04519 0156 +019 -012 135021 021 020 000 00
204900 2634N 08647W 5968 04519 0156 +019 -013 137020 020 020 000 00
204930 2633N 08650W 5969 04517 0158 +017 -018 134021 021 018 000 03
205000 2632N 08652W 5968 04518 0156 +019 -020 135021 022 018 000 00
205030 2631N 08655W 5968 04518 0154 +020 -015 136020 021 018 000 00
205100 2630N 08658W 5969 04519 0155 +019 -012 134020 020 019 000 00
205130 2629N 08700W 5969 04517 0153 +019 -013 137021 022 019 000 00
205200 2628N 08703W 5968 04517 0152 +020 -017 137021 021 019 000 00
205230 2627N 08706W 5969 04517 0150 +022 -019 138022 022 018 000 00
205300 2626N 08708W 5969 04517 0147 +023 -019 136021 022 019 000 00
205330 2625N 08711W 5969 04517 0145 +023 -019 133021 022 018 000 00
205400 2624N 08714W 5969 04516 0145 +023 -018 129021 021 020 000 00

[JGrin87]

5PMs are out and the NHC is mentioning the shear, I don't think it will recover much. If it shears all the convection to the south Don won't even bring all that much rain to the central parts of Texas that it needs.

Agreed. This doesn't seem to be the big rainmaker that we were all hoping about,

Sure it does, take a look at all the deep moisture now streaming toward Texas:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

cool link. Watch it suck all that moisture up from the southern gulf of mexico. It is perfectly correlated with Don's most recent flare up

[KWT]

A shame I'm going to have to stay up till silly hours to be able to watch this system make landfall...

Anyway another burst present over the past 2hrs with convection re-spreading over the LLC, but still got a sheared presentation.

[TwisterFanatic]

Don is actually streaming moisture up into Arkansas and Oklahoma this afternoon, which I will enjoy if I can get some rain out of it.

[plasticup]

Don looks to be doing a LOT better.

How so? It is still sheared and is quickly running out of ocean.

[hurricanejustin]

Looks like Bastardi called this one...on another note, wxman57, your optimism about the chances of rain here in Houston take a little of the sting out of this thing missing us all together

[ConvergenceZone]

A shame I'm going to have to stay up till silly hours to be able to watch this system make landfall...

Anyway another burst present over the past 2hrs with convection re-spreading over the LLC, but still got a sheared presentation.

KWT, at this point I don't think Don will be worth staying up late for, lol...
It will probably just be a breeezy large rainstorm.

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

I'm looking due north of the storm and can't see any appreciable shear. Cloud tops slowly making it further north. It's going to be a battle all the way till the end. Recon will tell us if Don is making any progress or not. I'm rooting for a rainmaker for Texas.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282104
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 07 20110728
205430 2623N 08717W 5968 04516 0143 +023 -015 132020 020 020 000 00
205500 2622N 08719W 5969 04514 0140 +025 -016 133021 022 020 000 00
205530 2621N 08722W 5968 04516 0139 +026 -018 133021 021 021 000 00
205600 2620N 08725W 5968 04514 0139 +025 -011 131020 021 020 000 00
205630 2619N 08727W 5968 04513 0138 +024 -010 131019 020 021 000 00
205700 2618N 08730W 5968 04513 0139 +024 -018 132020 020 021 000 00
205730 2617N 08733W 5968 04512 0140 +024 -024 133020 020 021 000 00
205800 2616N 08735W 5969 04511 0137 +025 -025 131021 021 022 000 00
205830 2615N 08738W 5968 04511 0134 +026 -025 130021 021 021 000 00
205900 2614N 08741W 5968 04511 0134 +026 -026 130020 020 021 000 00
205930 2613N 08743W 5969 04508 0128 +028 -013 126021 021 022 000 00
210000 2612N 08746W 5969 04509 0128 +028 -013 125021 021 021 000 00
210030 2611N 08749W 5969 04508 0125 +030 -017 123021 022 023 000 00
210100 2610N 08752W 5968 04509 0128 +028 -023 129020 021 023 000 00
210130 2609N 08754W 5969 04508 0129 +027 -016 129020 020 024 000 00
210200 2608N 08757W 5968 04508 0128 +027 -017 125020 020 024 000 00
210230 2607N 08800W 5969 04506 0128 +027 -019 124020 020 023 000 00
210300 2606N 08802W 5969 04506 0125 +028 -019 120020 021 025 000 00
210330 2604N 08805W 5969 04507 0126 +028 -020 123021 021 025 000 00
210400 2603N 08807W 5968 04508 0124 +030 -028 120021 022 020 000 00

[KWT]

Its behaving like a classic sheared storm ,bursting then weakening followed quickly by another big burst. If shear even lets off for just 6hrs, Don could easily go to 50-60kts in that period of time, seen it happen many times before...so dont rule out this system getting a bit stronger then expected...even if it does remain sheared.

[TwisterFanatic]

Don looks to be doing a LOT better.

How so? It is still sheared and is quickly running out of ocean.

It's entering a more favorable environment, which is apparent on Satellite imagery.