ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

CORPUS CHRISTI- Don continues to move quickly along at 15 MPH toward the middle Texas Coast with expected landfall Friday night around midnight (subject to change in forward speed) It is still expected to be a tropical storm NOT a hurricane at landfall. Wind currently 45 mph less than 500 miles (More)

http://www.kristv.com/home/

[JGrin87]

Don looks to be doing a LOT better.

How so? It is still sheared and is quickly running out of ocean.

relative to what it was looking like a couple of hours ago. At least there is some concentrated convection.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282114
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 08 20110728
210430 2601N 08809W 6049 04396 0127 +033 -013 123022 023 023 000 00
210500 2600N 08811W 6164 04243 0126 +043 -002 134023 023 /// /// 03
210530 2600N 08814W 6285 04087 0130 +052 +005 134023 023 024 000 03
210600 2600N 08817W 6507 03800 0134 +065 +022 134024 025 025 000 00
210630 2559N 08819W 6694 03566 0133 +080 +036 138025 025 025 000 00
210700 2558N 08822W 6856 03366 0137 +087 +054 140026 027 024 000 00
210730 2557N 08824W 7013 03177 0137 +098 +062 139026 026 025 000 00
210800 2557N 08826W 7164 03000 0141 +107 +069 143027 028 025 000 00
210830 2556N 08828W 7315 02825 0143 +117 +052 143030 030 026 000 00
210900 2555N 08831W 7431 02693 0143 +126 +049 140030 030 026 000 00
210930 2554N 08833W 7502 02614 0143 +129 +077 143030 031 025 000 00
211000 2554N 08835W 7504 02613 0146 +127 +092 144029 029 026 000 00
211030 2553N 08837W 7505 02610 0146 +125 +094 143028 029 025 000 00
211100 2552N 08839W 7505 02610 0146 +124 +100 141028 028 025 000 00
211130 2551N 08841W 7503 02609 0142 +127 +096 141029 029 026 000 00
211200 2550N 08843W 7503 02609 0141 +126 +098 143029 030 027 000 00
211230 2549N 08845W 7505 02609 0144 +125 +098 143029 029 027 000 00
211300 2548N 08847W 7504 02607 0138 +130 +082 141028 029 027 000 00
211330 2547N 08850W 7505 02607 0140 +128 +086 141029 029 027 000 00
211400 2547N 08852W 7503 02607 0139 +128 +086 144028 028 025 000 00

[petit_bois]

Surf's Up !
Dawn patrol in the morning.

[Stormcenter]

Yes Don looks much better this afternoon seems to be moving in a more westerly direction at a pretty decent speed.

[lebron23]

Whats up with all the hate on Don? Don is looking better this afternoon and WILL bring heavy rain to the texas coast. Courpus area should get 3-5 with isolated 7. Houston area could receive 1-2 with isolated 3-4 more southwest. ( Toward wharton county)

[ozonepete]

Don looks to be doing a LOT better.

How so? It is still sheared and is quickly running out of ocean.

relative to what it was looking like a couple of hours ago. At least there is some concentrated convection.

It's looking a WHOLE lot better. The convection now completely covers the LLC because, as you can see, and as others (Mark I think) said, from the satellite presentation that the shear to the north has died off. In fact, the shearing northerly winds have now turned NW, and that's helping to vent the system. Dry air will be the only issue for the time being, and since there are no new arc clouds spitting out from the center it looks like that may not affect it either for a while. Sure looks like a notable strenghtening is beginning. BTW it is also getting fully away from land influence now and getting a nice moisture feed from the south.

[lebron23]

AFM did say once it hits 25N that this thing would get a lot better organized.

[lrak]

yep yep

[ozonepete]

AFM is one of the best on here.

[lebron23]

And as far as the houston area getting rain. Tropical Storm Erin in 2007 hit about the same spot where Don will be hitting

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ainblk.gif

[TheEuropean]

at operational height and nearing the storm

000
URNT15 KWBC 282124
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 09 20110728
211430 2546N 08855W 7504 02609 0139 +129 +093 147027 028 026 000 00
211500 2545N 08857W 7504 02608 0140 +126 +093 144027 027 027 000 00
211530 2544N 08859W 7503 02606 0135 +129 +094 145028 029 027 000 00
211600 2543N 08902W 7503 02605 0134 +130 +091 144028 029 027 000 00
211630 2542N 08904W 7502 02605 0130 +133 +079 142028 028 026 000 00
211700 2541N 08907W 7503 02604 0129 +136 +061 144027 028 027 000 00
211730 2541N 08909W 7503 02604 0127 +138 +055 143029 030 027 000 00
211800 2540N 08912W 7505 02602 0128 +136 +060 143028 029 027 000 00
211830 2539N 08914W 7505 02602 0127 +138 +053 143029 030 027 000 00
211900 2538N 08916W 7507 02598 0126 +137 +062 140031 031 026 000 00
211930 2537N 08918W 7506 02598 0125 +137 +057 139030 030 025 000 00
212000 2536N 08920W 7506 02596 0121 +139 +053 139031 031 026 000 00
212030 2535N 08922W 7506 02594 0117 +142 +044 139032 032 026 000 00
212100 2534N 08925W 7507 02593 0117 +143 +037 140032 033 026 001 00
212130 2533N 08927W 7505 02597 0123 +136 +055 144031 033 022 000 00
212200 2532N 08929W 7507 02591 0121 +135 +068 145031 033 023 000 00
212230 2531N 08931W 7504 02594 0115 +139 +074 145032 033 022 000 00
212300 2530N 08933W 7507 02592 0117 +138 +078 143031 032 022 000 00
212330 2529N 08935W 7508 02591 0118 +138 +066 142033 034 022 000 00
212400 2528N 08937W 7507 02592 0126 +130 +058 141032 034 023 000 00

[lebron23]

That's a pretty good model consensus! All have shifted south! I think central to upper TX coast can go ahead write this one off! Corpus to Brownsville it is!


-----------
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Really still looks like Just south or Corpus to Matagorda to me.

[South Texas Storms]

It is looking much better on satellite imagery right now compared to earlier today.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Have to wait and see whether its a long term thing or whether its justn a short term burst before it weakens again, but it does look abit better right now and deeper convection is developing and it is trying to arch into the northern quadrant...right in time for recon!

[ConvergenceZone]

Whats up with all the hate on Don? Don is looking better this afternoon and WILL bring heavy rain to the texas coast. Courpus area should get 3-5 with isolated 7. Houston area could receive 1-2 with isolated 3-4 more southwest. ( Toward wharton county)

No hating at all! In fact I couldn't be happpier for the Texas residents. Hopefully it won't rain too much in 1 location, but all the rain couldn't be better news... Don is the best weather news Texas has had in a long time!

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282134
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 10 20110728
212430 2527N 08939W 7507 02591 0126 +127 +086 140032 034 024 000 00
212500 2526N 08941W 7506 02591 0122 +127 +101 140031 031 024 000 00
212530 2525N 08943W 7505 02592 0119 +131 +092 140033 033 025 000 00
212600 2524N 08945W 7506 02589 0121 +125 +106 138033 033 025 000 00
212630 2523N 08947W 7505 02589 0113 +133 +104 139032 032 025 000 00
212700 2522N 08949W 7505 02588 0110 +135 +102 138032 032 026 000 00
212730 2521N 08951W 7506 02588 0107 +139 +092 138032 033 027 000 00
212800 2520N 08953W 7506 02587 0104 +142 +090 137032 032 028 000 00
212830 2518N 08955W 7505 02588 0103 +141 +102 136031 031 029 000 00
212900 2517N 08958W 7505 02586 0102 +141 +096 139031 032 028 000 00
212930 2516N 09000W 7504 02587 0101 +143 +093 139030 030 028 000 00
213000 2515N 09002W 7505 02586 0098 +145 +093 138029 030 028 000 00
213030 2514N 09004W 7504 02586 0096 +146 +096 136028 029 029 001 00
213100 2513N 09006W 7505 02585 0097 +144 +101 135029 030 030 000 00
213130 2512N 09008W 7504 02585 0100 +139 +107 137031 031 030 000 00
213200 2511N 09010W 7504 02582 0097 +140 +109 136032 033 031 000 00
213230 2510N 09012W 7505 02583 0096 +141 +111 135032 033 031 000 00
213300 2509N 09015W 7505 02582 0094 +143 +112 134033 034 032 000 00
213330 2508N 09017W 7505 02580 0089 +146 +112 132035 036 031 000 00
213400 2507N 09019W 7505 02578 0090 +144 +112 134035 035 032 000 00

[lebron23]

I think Erin was a bigger storm than don was ...But i found this

http://marathi.wunderground.com/data/st ... ndfall.gif

Images from TS Erin in 07

http://community.weatherbug.com/deskwx/ ... 479449.jpg

[KWT]

Recon not all that far off from the system now, maybe the next 2-3 sets will give a pretty clear indication of where it is regarding any possible strengthening.

I do expect a slightly stronger system, maybe 45-50kts, though I think this strengthening trend will at least continue for a little while and be enough to ramp it upto the 55-60kts. Heat content is still increasing from here on and the loop current is helping as well now, as evidenced by the much deeper convection going up.