ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Maybe the folks in Texas will get the best of both worlds, not a lot of high winds...and the much needed rain they need. (keeping fingers crossed for both)

[Lane]

On the last frame of the IR loop, looks like the COC relocated more to the center of Don.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

what a difference a few hours makes. Really starting to get its act together. Need to keep an eye on this one tonight. Get the popcorn ready!

[ozonepete]

Hey there KWT. Notice there are no more (significant and thick) outflow boundaries coming out. So quite possibly, in ref to what we said before, the shear that was delivering dry air into the mid-levels has dropped off quite a bit. If the shear stays low, the dry air may not be an issue much now. I for one have such little faith in shear forecasts, and even "current" analyses of shear are often wrong anyway. When you add in the fact that this storm is so small in area, it's no wonder that the models can't get a good handle on where the shear is or where it's waxing/waning.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282144
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 11 20110728
213430 2506N 09021W 7505 02580 0089 +145 +109 135035 035 031 000 00
213500 2505N 09023W 7504 02578 0095 +137 +111 137035 036 031 000 00
213530 2504N 09025W 7505 02578 0098 +133 +112 137034 034 030 000 00
213600 2502N 09027W 7504 02576 0093 +137 +109 136032 033 030 000 00
213630 2501N 09030W 7504 02576 0096 +133 +115 133027 028 030 000 00
213700 2500N 09032W 7504 02576 0095 +134 +115 131025 025 030 000 00
213730 2459N 09034W 7504 02576 0091 +137 +110 128024 025 031 000 00
213800 2458N 09036W 7505 02574 0089 +139 +111 128025 026 030 001 00
213830 2457N 09038W 7504 02575 0086 +142 +115 128024 026 031 001 00
213900 2456N 09040W 7504 02575 0082 +144 +118 129025 026 030 000 00
213930 2455N 09042W 7508 02568 0079 +145 +117 130026 027 031 000 00
214000 2453N 09044W 7503 02572 0073 +150 +114 130026 028 032 000 00
214030 2451N 09045W 7505 02570 0073 +149 +121 134027 029 033 000 00
214100 2450N 09047W 7505 02570 0071 +150 +121 131025 026 033 000 00
214130 2448N 09048W 7505 02569 0072 +149 +122 130027 028 033 000 00
214200 2446N 09050W 7506 02569 0065 +156 +117 135025 026 034 000 00
214230 2445N 09051W 7505 02570 0065 +157 +117 133025 025 036 000 00
214300 2443N 09053W 7506 02566 0062 +156 +123 135022 022 035 000 00
214330 2441N 09054W 7507 02565 0060 +157 +121 134020 021 035 000 03
214400 2440N 09056W 7508 02563 0063 +153 +123 129017 018 035 000 03

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

I agree about Don looking better than earlier today. The convection has increased, the LLC is now under the convection not under the strongest convection but at least is not exposed, the outflow has improved, it seems that some banding is developing, the size is larger and there are less arc clouds/outflow boundaries. But we have to wait to see if it is not just a short term improvement as KWT said.

[lebron23]

Don also looks to be expanding in size a little bit

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282154
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 12 20110728
214430 2438N 09057W 7508 02561 0064 +150 +130 126018 019 036 000 03
214500 2437N 09059W 7508 02561 0062 +150 +138 126017 017 036 001 00
214530 2435N 09100W 7506 02561 0057 +153 +139 132017 018 037 000 00
214600 2434N 09101W 7508 02558 0057 +152 +137 127018 019 038 000 00
214630 2432N 09103W 7507 02556 0052 +155 +139 124017 018 038 000 00
214700 2431N 09104W 7507 02556 0050 +157 +135 123018 020 037 000 00
214730 2429N 09106W 7505 02556 0048 +159 +127 126021 021 038 000 00
214800 2427N 09107W 7506 02555 0046 +159 +132 126022 022 039 000 00
214830 2426N 09108W 7505 02555 0047 +155 +135 142020 022 039 001 00
214900 2424N 09110W 7515 02543 0050 +152 +139 145022 023 038 000 00
214930 2423N 09111W 7520 02536 0048 +154 +136 142025 027 038 000 00
215000 2422N 09113W 7531 02526 0049 +155 +136 142026 027 038 000 00
215030 2420N 09115W 7519 02537 0048 +153 +141 153025 025 039 001 00
215100 2419N 09116W 7511 02544 0046 +152 +140 158029 031 042 003 00
215130 2418N 09118W 7512 02543 0049 +147 +152 154025 025 048 016 00
215200 2417N 09120W 7513 02539 //// +145 //// 158017 024 054 024 21
215230 2415N 09121W 7512 02539 //// +143 //// 154011 012 058 032 21
215300 2414N 09123W 7517 02533 //// +141 //// 211004 006 063 037 21
215330 2413N 09124W 7501 02549 //// +140 //// 271011 012 066 046 25
215400 2412N 09126W 7499 02548 //// +134 //// 285009 019 063 050 25

[tolakram]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Blobs here and there. I guess overall it looks better, I can't really decide.

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR just reported unflagged 63 knot winds.

But the rest of the reading was flagged so I'm not sure. Weird. Flight level winds were nil. I think its faulty.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

SDF, yep its almost certainly faulty, notice how high the rainfall was at the time as well, 50+, which nearly always screws surface estimates over.

[SunnyThoughts]

215330 2413N 09124W 7501 02549 //// +140 //// 271011 012 066 046 25

Is that 66kt flight winds?

[tolakram]

They might have missed the center but if not that is way south.

[South Texas Storms]

Is it still moving NW? And where do yall think it will make landfall?

[SouthDadeFish]

SDF, yep its almost certainly faulty, notice how high the rainfall was at the time as well, 50+, which nearly always screws surface estimates over.

Yeah you have to be right. Still got SFMR readings of 48 knots before rain rates got too high though.

[StormClouds63]

Last night the debate was the 2 different solutions to the track (Upper Texas vs. S/Central Texas) ... it's becoming very obvious which one was correct.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the center relocated south some, deeper into the convection.