ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[lebron23]

Also does the center relocation to the south mean that Don will make landfall south of Corpus Christi

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282224
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 15 20110728
221430 2332N 09245W 7511 02563 0095 +129 +099 344015 016 022 000 00
221500 2331N 09247W 7511 02564 0095 +130 +096 342015 015 020 001 00
221530 2330N 09249W 7511 02565 0094 +133 +092 344014 015 021 000 00
221600 2329N 09251W 7511 02564 0092 +135 +084 338015 015 022 001 00
221630 2328N 09253W 7511 02566 0094 +136 +074 338014 014 021 000 00
221700 2327N 09255W 7510 02566 0094 +139 +048 340013 013 019 000 00
221730 2326N 09257W 7512 02565 0095 +139 +043 348013 013 019 000 00
221800 2325N 09259W 7512 02565 0094 +141 +033 349013 013 019 000 00
221830 2324N 09301W 7511 02567 0098 +138 +032 347013 013 019 000 00
221900 2322N 09302W 7509 02570 0098 +138 +033 351013 014 /// /// 03
221930 2321N 09303W 7513 02565 0099 +136 +036 348013 014 /// /// 03
222000 2319N 09301W 7514 02564 0099 +138 +041 342013 014 015 001 00
222030 2318N 09259W 7512 02566 0096 +140 +028 341013 014 018 000 00
222100 2317N 09257W 7512 02566 0096 +140 +035 338013 013 019 000 00
222130 2316N 09255W 7511 02568 0100 +136 +038 337013 013 020 000 00
222200 2315N 09253W 7511 02568 0099 +138 +027 335013 014 019 001 00
222230 2314N 09251W 7510 02568 0101 +133 +050 330014 014 019 001 00
222300 2313N 09249W 7512 02566 0096 +140 +030 332013 013 020 000 00
222330 2312N 09247W 7510 02570 0099 +136 +045 328013 013 018 000 00
222400 2311N 09245W 7511 02567 0102 +132 +056 327014 014 019 001 00

[Air Force Met]

AFM, Do you agree with 1-2 inches of rain here in Sugar Land, Fort bend county?

Not as a widespread amount. It is possible you could get a passing shower and get that...but this system is going to go too far south...and be too small to bring organized precip of that amount....especially if it tightens. We might not get anything.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

If you look at a water vapor loop of the Gulf...he is actually starting to take the shape of a tropical cyclone for the first time in his life...if you can ignore all the garbage north of him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

It is indeed, it did start to look decent before the shear increased and the convection decayed, but once again it seems like its bursting...have to see if it holds it this time, thus far no sign of any Outflow boundaries.

[hurricaneCW]

Is it possible that Don makes landfall in Mexico, especially considering the center has relocated further south?

[KWT]

Yep looks like the center is a good deal south of where it was before, relocated southwards towards the deep convection.

[ozonepete]

Center is also very close to the hot tower as well...looks like the circulation has relocated right into the center of the convection, shear does seem to have eased off for now, just as it goes over the higher heat content.

No denying its on another strengthening phase.

This is about where and when I expected this to start happening. This afternoon...as it approached 25N near that eddy of higher TCHP.

If you look at a water vapor loop of the Gulf...he is actually starting to take the shape of a tropical cyclone for the first time in his life...if you can ignore all the garbage north of him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Looks like all of the necessary positive factors have sarted to come into play at the same time. As you said, it looks like a real TC now; there's considerable symmetry and the ouflow is getting very impressive.

BTW, that 63 knots on SMFR could have been from a thunderstorm gust under that hot tower.

[plasticup]

Even if this system does slide south and miss most of the drought areas, it is a good precedent. The season is only beginning and you are bound to get some systems as things pick up.

[expat2carib]

Highly recommended,

Daily weather "tidbits" on youtube. I'm subscribed to them and very happy for them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5mmVcNYOQA&feature=uploademail

[KWT]

Is it possible that Don makes landfall in Mexico, especially considering the center has relocated further south?

not impossible, but S.Texas is still the more likely outcome for this system at the moment. Could end up being a closer call then some thought though.

[Air Force Met]

Even if this system does slide south and miss most of the drought areas, it is a good precedent. The season is only beginning and you are bound to get some systems as things pick up.

That is what I have been telling my people: The pattern seems set...ridge is steering everything west. We still have August and September to go...and we are already on #4.

[lester]

215330 2413N 09124W 7501 02549 //// +140 //// 271011 012 066 046 25

Is that 66kt flight winds?

Doesn't count since it's contaminated

- לסטר

[tropicwatch]

It still looks like the convection is building even more.



Tropicwatch

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282234
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 16 20110728
222430 2310N 09243W 7511 02568 0102 +130 +065 325014 014 016 000 00
222500 2309N 09241W 7511 02566 0103 +129 +072 327014 015 016 000 00
222530 2308N 09239W 7511 02567 0102 +130 +074 319013 013 017 000 00
222600 2307N 09237W 7511 02566 0103 +129 +069 319012 012 018 000 00
222630 2306N 09235W 7511 02566 0102 +131 +064 317012 012 017 001 00
222700 2305N 09233W 7512 02565 0101 +132 +063 315011 011 017 000 00
222730 2303N 09231W 7513 02565 0098 +135 +054 314011 012 016 000 00
222800 2302N 09229W 7512 02567 0098 +137 +040 311011 011 017 000 00
222830 2301N 09227W 7511 02565 0095 +138 +037 311011 012 017 000 00
222900 2300N 09225W 7512 02565 0095 +136 +063 316009 010 019 000 00
222930 2259N 09223W 7512 02565 0091 +139 +077 319009 009 020 001 00
223000 2258N 09221W 7512 02566 0091 +140 +073 321009 009 019 001 00
223030 2257N 09219W 7510 02568 0093 +140 +060 319008 008 021 000 00
223100 2256N 09217W 7513 02565 0092 +141 +059 303008 009 024 000 00
223130 2255N 09215W 7511 02566 0089 +145 +044 280006 007 025 001 00
223200 2254N 09213W 7513 02565 0092 +142 +050 276009 010 026 006 00
223230 2253N 09211W 7514 02563 0099 +133 +072 270009 010 026 006 00
223300 2252N 09209W 7511 02567 0098 +136 +062 269010 010 022 005 00
223330 2251N 09207W 7513 02566 0098 +135 +088 268011 012 025 005 00
223400 2250N 09205W 7511 02568 0098 +135 +090 279014 014 025 005 00

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like banding maybe setting up.

[Dave]

USAF AF307 took off from Keesler a little while ago...

788
URNT15 KNHC 282232
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 05 20110728
222200 3006N 08908W 7261 02895 0161 +103 +080 186012 012 026 002 00
222230 3005N 08909W 7083 03087 0143 +098 +061 181011 012 029 000 03
222300 3003N 08911W 6998 03202 0155 +090 +051 176010 010 034 001 00
222330 3001N 08912W 6994 03209 0156 +090 +048 180009 009 036 002 03
222400 3000N 08913W 6996 03205 0159 +090 +053 177008 009 029 001 03
222430 2958N 08914W 6996 03205 0158 +090 +062 181008 009 035 000 03
222500 2956N 08916W 6998 03204 0157 +090 +054 173008 008 /// /// 03
222530 2954N 08917W 6945 03253 0144 +088 +049 175008 009 031 001 03
222600 2952N 08918W 6709 03538 0130 +077 +030 178007 008 065 002 03
222630 2950N 08919W 6486 03816 0129 +060 +021 178006 006 074 011 03
222700 2948N 08921W 6297 04060 0123 +049 +014 169004 005 /// /// 03
222730 2946N 08922W 6127 04281 0122 +036 +007 161005 006 030 000 03
222800 2945N 08923W 5959 04509 0112 +026 -001 186007 008 025 001 00
222830 2943N 08924W 5788 04743 0112 +012 -008 197006 007 040 002 03
222900 2941N 08924W 5641 04952 0112 -001 -011 194003 004 049 009 03
222930 2939N 08925W 5493 05163 0289 -012 -023 181002 003 026 000 00
223000 2937N 08925W 5355 05366 0302 -022 -038 159004 004 026 000 00
223030 2935N 08926W 5229 05557 0314 -029 -048 108006 008 027 001 00
223100 2933N 08926W 5113 05737 0329 -039 -061 102007 007 028 001 00
223130 2931N 08927W 5028 05873 0341 -049 -066 091008 008 029 000 00
$$
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[Dave]

I've got AF307 for awhile, but will hold the graphics down because we've got a noaa plane in the region at the same time. If anyone else wants to pull graphics or give The European a break (check with him), go ahead.

[SunnyThoughts]

Air Force plane on its way now also. We'll have 2 planes inside the storm for a while. Should get a good idea of how strong Don has become with both inside at the same time.

[Dave]

650
URNT15 KNHC 282242
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 06 20110728
223200 2929N 08927W 5011 05901 0345 -050 -072 089009 009 026 000 00
223230 2926N 08928W 5015 05897 0347 -050 -074 085009 010 027 000 00
223300 2924N 08929W 5016 05898 0350 -049 -079 088009 010 /// /// 03
223330 2921N 08930W 5021 05896 0354 -048 -085 107010 011 /// /// 03
223400 2919N 08930W 5020 05897 0354 -047 -084 140006 008 /// /// 03
223430 2916N 08930W 5018 05901 0354 -046 -082 167007 008 /// /// 03
223500 2914N 08930W 5019 05899 0353 -049 -078 165007 007 /// /// 03
223530 2911N 08930W 5017 05899 0353 -049 -077 123007 009 034 000 03
223600 2909N 08929W 5021 05893 0352 -050 -082 113010 010 030 000 03
223630 2906N 08929W 5017 05899 0353 -050 -082 106008 009 028 000 00
223700 2904N 08930W 5021 05893 0351 -050 -083 096008 008 029 000 03
223730 2901N 08930W 5016 05903 0353 -050 -082 092009 010 031 000 00
223800 2859N 08931W 5020 05893 0351 -050 -080 083009 010 032 000 00
223830 2857N 08932W 5019 05897 0352 -050 -086 079009 009 031 000 00
223900 2854N 08933W 5019 05896 0352 -048 -085 078008 009 029 000 00
223930 2852N 08934W 5023 05893 0351 -050 -075 081009 010 029 000 00
224000 2849N 08935W 5017 05900 0352 -054 -071 077009 009 029 000 00
224030 2847N 08936W 5027 05883 0349 -050 -063 072005 008 030 001 00
224100 2845N 08937W 5011 05907 0349 -050 -067 118004 007 030 003 00
224130 2842N 08938W 5018 05899 0351 -049 -062 120012 014 031 005 00
$$
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