Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

What Aric was pointing about. Look at how high the moisture envelope this has.

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting. Does anybody have links to models that show what the upcoming patterns will look like for August? Correct me if I am wrong but the last couple of months or so have seen this huge ridge of high pressure near the east coast and very little dips in the jet stream. Will the pattern change to have more troughing in the East Coast?

Actually its been troughy on the east coast and strong ridge in the central us ( hence the heat ) the pattern is in the process of changing as the ridge as slid to east coast now.

Aric,

Do you think that is one of the reasons that many people are worried that this year will be worse than 2011 in terms of landfalls? If the ridge slides to the east coast as you say does that mean that we could have an increased threat to the east coast including Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting. Does anybody have links to models that show what the upcoming patterns will look like for August? Correct me if I am wrong but the last couple of months or so have seen this huge ridge of high pressure near the east coast and very little dips in the jet stream. Will the pattern change to have more troughing in the East Coast?

Actually its been troughy on the east coast and strong ridge in the central us ( hence the heat ) the pattern is in the process of changing as the ridge as slid to east coast now.

Aric,

Do you think that is the reason that many people are worried that this year will be worse than 2011 in terms of landfalls? If the ridge slides to the east coast as you say does that mean that we could have an increased threat to the east coast including Florida?

That is the General thinking. A little more too it but basically the brumuda High is expected to be stronger and farther west.

[KWT]

Think this is a very good chance for eventual development and will probably track south of where the models aren currently expecting, just like 90L did before it.

Think it's got a better chance then 90L pre-Caribbean but we'll have to see, we've seen plenty of systems form west of say 50W at this point of the season, so no reason to think it can't happen again.

Think this one will be Emily down the line...and 91L sooner rather then later...Probably a 20% warning coming in the next 12hrs due to what some models do with it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The MJO will be entering our area of the world soon...This will moisten the area in the central Atlantic up soon, and give pre-91L a better chance at development than what 90L had.

[ronjon]

Agree, KWT, this has a rather large cyclonic twist and plenty of moisture within it. CMC, UKMET, ECM and GFS all support development down the road. This could be our first large storm of the season that barrels west just south of the greater antilles.

[cycloneye]

The low goes down to 1008 mbs on the 18z surface analysis made by TAFB.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Aric Dunn]

GFS initializes 1008 mb low

[KWT]

That convection will probably help the low to detach away from the immeditate ITCZ. system does look good, another 12hrs and I'd not be all that surprised if we get 91L...

[Aric Dunn]

That convection will probably help the low to detach away from the immeditate ITCZ. system does look good, another 12hrs and I'd not be all that surprised if we get 91L...

well technically the convection started yesterday afternoon so its been 24hrs and typically if something persists for 24hrs we normally get an invest. especially with model support.

[Javlin]

Well if this stays low and starts something it may remind me of Ivan some but Ivan was a long tracker.

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS run is a bit stronger as it moves thru the Lesser Antilles.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[HurricaneWarning92]

Again, it looks like the Atlantic High is way too strong that it will push every storm to the south. At least in the short term. Unless, of course it is expected to weaken somewhat.

[KWT]

well technically the convection started yesterday afternoon so its been 24hrs and typically if something persists for 24hrs we normally get an invest. especially with model support.

Yeah but its only really been propping up good convection for the last 12hrs or so, it was a little weak before then...still I get your drift, I think investment isn't at all far off for this system.

[Wx_Warrior]

I have little faith in the GFS

[KWT]

To be fair, the ECM does almost identical thing, just further north...both develop this...

[cycloneye]

20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH

[ConvergenceZone]

20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH

Woot! Game on! Here we go!!!

[KWT]

20%, as expected really given model support...

Expect invest anytime from now, usually 20% is enough to do it with model support.

[ConvergenceZone]

20%, as expected really given model support...

Expect invest anytime from now, usually 20% is enough to do it with model support.

Yep, looking forward to another long tracker Invest... What do you think KWT. Think the invest will be here by tomorrow morning?