ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 290004
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 25 20110728
235430 2523N 09117W 7527 02557 0089 +149 +113 123024 024 030 000 00
235500 2525N 09117W 7528 02556 0092 +146 +111 118024 025 030 001 00
235530 2527N 09117W 7528 02557 0091 +149 +102 117027 028 030 000 00
235600 2530N 09117W 7528 02559 0088 +155 +102 115029 030 030 000 00
235630 2532N 09117W 7529 02558 0083 +161 +096 116031 031 028 000 00
235700 2534N 09117W 7529 02559 0085 +160 +098 119033 034 029 001 00
235730 2536N 09116W 7528 02559 0087 +159 +099 118034 034 029 000 00
235800 2538N 09116W 7529 02562 0088 +158 +102 118035 035 029 000 00
235830 2541N 09115W 7529 02561 0091 +155 +103 117034 035 026 002 00
235900 2543N 09115W 7528 02562 0094 +152 +104 118033 034 026 002 00
235930 2545N 09114W 7529 02563 0096 +151 +106 121030 032 027 001 00
000000 2547N 09113W 7528 02564 0096 +152 +107 120029 029 029 001 00
000030 2549N 09112W 7528 02564 0096 +153 +102 119028 029 029 002 00
000100 2551N 09111W 7528 02565 0099 +151 +098 119028 028 028 001 00
000130 2553N 09110W 7527 02567 0102 +150 +095 117029 029 028 000 00
000200 2555N 09109W 7528 02566 0104 +148 +099 116028 028 029 001 00
000230 2557N 09108W 7528 02568 0105 +147 +102 114028 029 026 000 00
000300 2559N 09107W 7528 02567 0106 +145 +101 115029 029 027 000 00
000330 2600N 09106W 7525 02571 0107 +145 +101 116029 029 025 001 03
000400 2601N 09104W 7532 02564 0108 +145 +099 119028 028 029 000 00

[CypressMike]

Umm recon just measured 996 mb.... and I see a warm spot on his-res IR imagery. Beginnings of an eye maybe?

I don't think that dark spot you see is a warm spot...it's a cold spot, representing the highest cloud tops. Don isn't capable of creating an eye at this point.

I'm using Weathertap IR imagery and it's definitely a warm spot. Not saying its necessarily an eye.

I'm not trying to be difficult, but I stand by my assertion that it is a cold spot, not a warm spot. Any pro mets care to weigh in?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I agree with some of you, a hurricane watch is needed at 11PM AST. I'm skeptical about that 996 mb. reading, maybe 998/999 mb. At any rate, Don is doing a lot better than what he was earlier, and he kind of surprised me. Every time I leave, something surprising happens with the storm. Maybe I need to stop leaving.

[plasticup]

I see a warm spot on his-res IR imagery. Beginnings of an eye maybe?

Can you show us a picture? I can't see that in my imagery, but I am curious.

[RL3AO]

Probably talking about this.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's not impossible for a storm to drop pressure that fast in a few hours if it's undergoing rapid intensification. We'll have to wait until the correct pressure reading is verified.

[SouthDadeFish]

Probably talking about this.

Thank you! Btw I'm studying meteorology in college. I know cold spots from warm spots

[Dave]

460
URNT15 KNHC 290011
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 15 20110729
000200 2447N 09134W 8430 01550 0057 +197 +166 133030 030 034 002 00
000230 2446N 09135W 8429 01550 0053 +199 +167 131030 030 033 003 00
000300 2444N 09136W 8428 01550 0054 +197 +169 129030 030 034 002 00
000330 2443N 09137W 8428 01547 0052 +197 +170 128031 031 036 003 00
000400 2442N 09138W 8431 01544 0049 +197 +178 127034 034 036 004 00
000430 2440N 09139W 8426 01544 0044 +199 +185 125032 033 038 003 00
000500 2439N 09140W 8432 01535 0038 +202 +186 126030 032 039 001 00
000530 2437N 09141W 8434 01533 0032 +212 +167 129030 030 036 002 00
000600 2436N 09142W 8433 01530 0031 +212 +162 131035 036 036 003 00
000630 2435N 09143W 8429 01533 0028 +212 +153 136034 035 040 001 00
000700 2433N 09143W 8430 01528 0021 +212 +164 138039 043 041 003 03
000730 2432N 09145W 8429 01520 0003 +229 +158 135041 041 043 001 00
000800 2431N 09146W 8431 01514 9992 +239 +173 139034 039 041 002 00
000830 2430N 09147W 8425 01514 9975 +259 +152 127022 027 037 004 00
000900 2428N 09148W 8424 01511 9967 +269 +151 139018 019 018 003 03
000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03
001000 2426N 09150W 8428 01505 9975 +250 +166 269007 016 041 003 03
001030 2424N 09151W 8425 01513 0002 +208 +184 264024 026 041 005 00
001100 2423N 09152W 8430 01518 0024 +187 //// 283026 028 036 005 01
001130 2421N 09153W 8429 01529 0034 +191 +173 281021 022 034 005 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03

Um...995.4 from AF.

Maybe skip the hurricane watch and go straight to the warning?

[SouthDadeFish]

We have a rapidly intensifying system a day away from landfall. Not cool.

And this is why you never quit paying attention to a storm when you're in the potential track...

[CypressMike]

Umm recon just measured 996 mb.... and I see a warm spot on his-res IR imagery. Beginnings of an eye maybe?

I don't think that dark spot you see is a warm spot...it's a cold spot, representing the highest cloud tops. Don isn't capable of creating an eye at this point.

I'm using Weathertap IR imagery and it's definitely a warm spot. Not saying its necessarily an eye.

Nice. The image I was looking at was not updated yet. In the latest image I see what you're looking at.

[x-y-no]

Air force recon just had extrap 995.4mb

[Hurricaneman]

this is exploding right befor our eyes, looks like maybe a possible eye forming in that warm spot in the middle

[CrazyC83]

Winds haven't shown up yet on the AF flight, but maybe the NOAA estimates aren't too far off? I would guess 50 kt right now.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 290014
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 26 20110729
000430 2601N 09101W 7529 02568 0109 +145 +096 120027 028 028 001 00
000500 2601N 09059W 7528 02568 0111 +144 +090 124028 028 028 000 00
000530 2600N 09057W 7529 02569 0111 +146 +089 128028 029 029 000 00
000600 2600N 09055W 7528 02570 0111 +145 +093 131029 029 029 001 00
000630 2600N 09053W 7528 02570 0110 +145 +102 134030 030 028 000 00
000700 2600N 09051W 7528 02570 0110 +146 +106 137031 031 029 000 00
000730 2600N 09048W 7528 02569 0108 +146 +104 137031 031 028 000 00
000800 2600N 09046W 7528 02569 0109 +144 +109 138030 030 029 000 00
000830 2600N 09044W 7528 02570 0112 +144 +097 136030 031 028 000 00
000900 2600N 09042W 7526 02574 0114 +144 +088 137033 033 028 000 00
000930 2600N 09040W 7527 02571 0112 +147 +074 137033 033 027 001 00
001000 2600N 09037W 7527 02571 0112 +149 +061 137033 034 027 000 00
001030 2600N 09035W 7527 02574 0113 +149 +061 138034 034 027 000 00
001100 2600N 09033W 7527 02576 0116 +149 +058 137035 035 026 000 00
001130 2600N 09031W 7528 02575 0115 +150 +056 136034 034 025 001 00
001200 2600N 09029W 7527 02574 0114 +149 +070 136033 033 027 001 00
001230 2600N 09026W 7528 02574 0118 +144 +091 133031 032 026 000 00
001300 2600N 09024W 7528 02575 0120 +143 +091 133032 033 025 000 00
001330 2600N 09022W 7528 02577 0125 +140 +087 132032 033 025 001 00
001400 2600N 09020W 7528 02578 0126 +140 +079 132033 033 025 000 00

[Wren]

000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03

Um...995.4 from AF.

Maybe skip the hurricane watch and go straight to the warning?

I agree. At the very least they need to get out a preliminary hurricane warning for the zone area.

I'm still hoping to catch some rain from Don in Austin. Of course all of Texas is scorched. Just hope now this goes into Kennedy County in TX.

Long time lurker here.

[CrazyC83]

000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03

Um...995.4 from AF.

Maybe skip the hurricane watch and go straight to the warning?

I agree. At the very least they need to get out a preliminary hurricane warning for the zone area.

I'm still hoping to catch some rain from Don in Austin. Of course all of Texas is scorched. Just hope now this goes into Kennedy County in TX.

I'm sure the 400 souls that live there aren't wishing for that though!

[CypressMike]

We have a rapidly intensifying system a day away from landfall. Not cool.

At least it's a small storm. Actually, that's not such a good thing...we need the rain so bad here in Texas that we'll take the wind as long as we get a good soaking rain. I'm afraid those of us in SE Texas won't get much of anything from Don.

[SouthDadeFish]

A microwave pass right about now would be very useful....

[RL3AO]

A microwave pass right about now would be very useful....

Yeah. I keep checking NRL every few minutes.