ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

#2981 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:21 pm

x-y-no wrote:Air force recon just had extrap 995.4mb

Gotta say this is not a surprise given the satellite presentation, especially the CHANGE in it over the last few hours.Outflow at the top, improving inflow, dropping shear. And we know it's moving over higher heat content water.

lebron23 · #2982 Postby **lebron23** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:21 pm

Talked to Frank B from KPRC. He said for houston it was actually better if it strengthened a little, for a chance to see a feeder band

#2983 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:21 pm

AF307

#2984 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:21 pm

RI is very possible in such a small storm.

Wren · #2985 Postby **Wren** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Wren wrote:
RL3AO wrote:000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03

Um...995.4 from AF.

Maybe skip the hurricane watch and go straight to the warning?

I agree. At the very least they need to get out a preliminary hurricane warning for the zone area.

I'm still hoping to catch some rain from Don in Austin. Of course all of Texas is scorched. Just hope now this goes into Kennedy County in TX.

I'm sure the 400 souls that live there aren't wishing for that though!

True that, but the fewer people at risk, the better.

#2986 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:22 pm

NOAA .. leaving?

#2987 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:23 pm

TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL :-)

#2988 Postby **Dave** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:23 pm

NOAA2 DROP

000
UZNT13 KWBC 290018
XXAA 78218 99256 70894 08159 99013 27214 17518 00114 26415 16020
92801 22206 13525 85536 19007 15032 88999 77999
31313 09608 82120
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 09
62626 REL 2557N08941W 212058 SPG 2559N08943W 212523 WL150 16519 0
85 DLM WND 14527 012751 MBL WND 15522=
XXBB 78218 99256 70894 08159 00013 27214 11003 26615 22972 25008
33935 23004 44893 20405 55880 20805 66773 140// 77758 146// 88751
14660
21212 00013 17518 11007 16516 22003 16520 33959 14527 44902 12525
55896 13530 66891 14028 77888 14532 88884 14026 99881 14031 11864
15027 22853 15533 33847 15030 44844 16523 55840 15026 66757 14532
77753 13029 88751 14032
31313 09608 82120
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 09
62626 REL 2557N08941W 212058 SPG 2559N08943W 212523 WL150 16519 0
85 DLM WND 14527 012751 MBL WND 15522=

Janie2006 · #2989 Postby **Janie2006** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:24 pm

x-y-no wrote:Air force recon just had extrap 995.4mb

Not a good sign. Plenty of time for Don to respond to the lowering pressure...if this verifies.

#2990 Postby **Dave** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:24 pm

790
URNT15 KNHC 290022
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 16 20110729
001200 2420N 09154W 8430 01527 0031 +199 +170 291018 019 035 004 03
001230 2419N 09155W 8432 01534 0039 +194 +179 300019 020 033 006 00
001300 2418N 09156W 8430 01537 0045 +190 +179 298020 022 037 017 00
001330 2417N 09157W 8432 01541 0046 +197 +172 305023 025 037 019 00
001400 2416N 09159W 8429 01539 0056 +170 //// 321027 030 036 021 01
001430 2414N 09200W 8420 01548 0061 +167 //// 330028 031 042 013 01
001500 2413N 09201W 8442 01527 0054 +181 +176 324024 025 039 012 00
001530 2412N 09203W 8429 01539 0042 +200 +165 331022 022 040 012 00
001600 2411N 09204W 8430 01542 0046 +202 +153 332018 021 040 012 00
001630 2410N 09205W 8433 01537 0045 +205 +164 343015 016 043 012 00
001700 2408N 09207W 8424 01551 0049 +198 +171 341020 021 040 010 00
001730 2407N 09208W 8429 01546 0048 +202 +166 344022 023 037 010 00
001800 2406N 09210W 8430 01541 0045 +200 +163 337024 025 037 007 00
001830 2405N 09211W 8430 01541 0047 +197 +166 342025 026 035 008 00
001900 2404N 09212W 8430 01542 0054 +187 +169 337025 025 035 009 00
001930 2402N 09214W 8429 01545 0057 +183 +169 335027 028 035 010 00
002000 2401N 09215W 8429 01548 0062 +181 +169 334026 026 040 017 00
002030 2400N 09216W 8433 01544 0070 +167 //// 340024 025 042 020 01
002100 2359N 09218W 8428 01550 0070 +170 //// 337025 026 031 009 01
002130 2358N 09219W 8431 01548 0076 +162 //// 336025 026 028 010 01
$$
;

#2991 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:24 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL

Hahahaha that's funny AFM.. Great call by you though. :wink:

#2992 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:24 pm

What to set the intensity at is a question. The NE quad had an SFMR of 43 kt. The NOAA plane had numerous wild estimates. Based on the pressure and assumption that stronger winds exist in the NW quad (right-front), I would go 50 kt right now.

Javlin · #2993 Postby **Javlin** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:25 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL

mf_dolphin · #2994 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:26 pm

Air Force Met wrote:....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL

Sorry but my mind just won't go there :-)

#2995 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:26 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL

Maybe you should develop a model and name it S2K met model, cause the other models are missing on this one.

#2996 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What to set the intensity at is a question. The NE quad had an SFMR of 43 kt. The NOAA plane had numerous wild estimates. Based on the pressure and assumption that stronger winds exist in the NW quad (right-front), I would go 50 kt right now.

00z Best Track

They went with 45kts.

AL, 04, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 246N, 919W, 45, 998, TS

#2997 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:27 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL

I always thought you were right and said so before. Just chickened out on saying it myself. I've stuck my neck out here before and had my head chopped off enough times. :lol:

#2998 Postby **TexasF6** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:28 pm

Who needs the euro when we have AFM???? I'm just sayin!!!!

#2999 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:28 pm

Why only 998 mb on best track? I guess dropsondes aren't verifying extrapolation fully. Probably hard to drop one right in the middle of the small center.

#3000 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:28 pm

000800 2431N 09146W 8431 01514 9992 +239 +173 139034 039 041 002 00
000830 2430N 09147W 8425 01514 9975 +259 +152 127022 027 037 004 00
000900 2428N 09148W 8424 01511 9967 +269 +151 139018 019 018 003 03
000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03
001000 2426N 09150W 8428 01505 9975 +250 +166 269007 016 041 003 03
001030 2424N 09151W 8425 01513 0002 +208 +184 264024 026 041 005 00

Look how warm the center is now. Up to 28C.

ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Who is online