ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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Janie2006
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3001 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:29 pm

I dunno, maybe he should call it the AFM model, keep all the credit for himself and stuff like that. :lol:
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Re: Re:

#3002 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.


That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL :-)



LOL AFM, I never doubted you for a minute. You are the BEST when it comes to the tropics, and I don't know how we would survive around here at Storm2k without you. Thanks so much for all you do.
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Re: Re:

#3003 Postby shortwave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.


That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL :-)


I had confidence, but you left out to many details :P
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#3004 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:29 pm

AF307 VDM

000
URNT12 KNHC 290026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/00:09:50Z
B. 24 deg 26 min N
091 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1424 m
D. 43 kt
E. 042 deg 6 nm
F. 138 deg 42 kt
G. 044 deg 8 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 22 C / 1524 m
J. 28 C / 1515 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0404A DON OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NE QUAD 00:07:10Z
;
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#3005 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:30 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 290024
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 27 20110729
001430 2600N 09018W 7529 02577 0127 +142 +051 134033 033 023 001 00
001500 2600N 09015W 7528 02580 0127 +140 +077 133032 032 021 001 00
001530 2600N 09013W 7526 02580 0129 +135 +107 132031 032 021 000 00
001600 2600N 09011W 7529 02579 0127 +139 +103 133030 030 021 000 00
001630 2600N 09009W 7529 02577 0129 +138 +095 135029 029 021 000 00
001700 2600N 09007W 7528 02580 0126 +141 +099 133030 032 018 001 00
001730 2600N 09004W 7527 02582 0132 +137 +088 135032 033 020 001 00
001800 2600N 09002W 7528 02581 0133 +134 +104 132030 031 019 000 00
001830 2600N 09000W 7528 02581 0131 +137 +093 133030 030 019 000 00
001900 2600N 08958W 7527 02581 0131 +140 +075 135030 031 019 001 00
001930 2600N 08956W 7529 02580 0130 +138 +096 138026 027 021 002 00
002000 2600N 08953W 7528 02581 0131 +138 +093 137027 028 017 001 00
002030 2600N 08951W 7528 02582 0129 +142 +072 141027 028 019 000 00
002100 2600N 08949W 7528 02581 0132 +140 +063 141027 028 019 000 00
002130 2600N 08947W 7527 02582 0134 +137 +076 139026 027 022 000 00
002200 2600N 08944W 7528 02582 0135 +136 +079 137026 027 024 000 00
002230 2600N 08942W 7528 02581 0131 +138 +078 135027 027 024 000 00
002300 2600N 08940W 7528 02579 0128 +140 +076 135027 028 024 000 00
002330 2600N 08938W 7421 02700 0129 +133 +071 140027 027 025 000 00
002400 2600N 08935W 7215 02939 0132 +119 +042 139026 026 024 000 00
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3006 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:30 pm

RL3AO wrote:000800 2431N 09146W 8431 01514 9992 +239 +173 139034 039 041 002 00
000830 2430N 09147W 8425 01514 9975 +259 +152 127022 027 037 004 00
000900 2428N 09148W 8424 01511 9967 +269 +151 139018 019 018 003 03
000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03
001000 2426N 09150W 8428 01505 9975 +250 +166 269007 016 041 003 03
001030 2424N 09151W 8425 01513 0002 +208 +184 264024 026 041 005 00

Look how warm the center is now. Up to 28C.


We might be seeing the beginnings of an eye after all...
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#3007 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:31 pm

NOAA2 DROP #10

000
UZNT13 KWBC 290025
XXAA 78228 99252 70902 08250 99010 28250 14027 00091 27450 14030
92777 21826 16031 85509 18031 14040 88999 77999
31313 09608 82132
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 10
62626 REL 2515N09024W 213255 SPG 2518N09026W 213657 WL150 14030 0
85 DLM WND 14534 010751 MBL WND 14530=
XXBB 78228 99252 70902 08250 00010 28250 11007 28056 22936 22422
33916 21633 44905 21850 55852 18032 66840 18235 77781 15436 88766
156// 99751 14229
21212 00010 14027 11003 14031 22959 15029 33911 16033 44895 14532
55844 14042 66751 13533
31313 09608 82132
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 10
62626 REL 2515N09024W 213255 SPG 2518N09026W 213657 WL150 14030 0
85 DLM WND 14534 010751 MBL WND 14530=
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#3008 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:31 pm

VDM had 999mb as a pressure. May have been some wind in there so it might be a tad lower.
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Re: ATL: DON - Recon

#3009 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:33 pm

Image

AF307
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3010 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:33 pm

one of the last visuals of the day. mighty fine

Image
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3011 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:33 pm

It looks to me like the NW motion has resumed. Does anyone else see this?
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#3012 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:33 pm

NOAA mission is done.
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#3013 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:34 pm

413
URNT15 KNHC 290032
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 17 20110729
002200 2356N 09220W 8430 01550 0075 +165 //// 337022 024 026 008 01
002230 2355N 09222W 8429 01551 0077 +165 //// 330022 022 027 008 01
002300 2354N 09223W 8429 01553 0078 +165 //// 328020 022 026 007 01
002330 2353N 09224W 8430 01552 0078 +167 //// 327020 021 026 006 01
002400 2352N 09226W 8430 01554 0081 +165 //// 325021 021 026 008 01
002430 2350N 09227W 8429 01556 0083 +163 //// 323021 022 027 008 01
002500 2349N 09228W 8430 01557 0089 +160 //// 324021 021 028 008 01
002530 2348N 09230W 8430 01557 0090 +157 //// 326021 021 029 009 01
002600 2347N 09231W 8430 01557 0093 +152 //// 327021 022 031 011 01
002630 2346N 09232W 8432 01556 0094 +151 //// 330020 021 032 012 01
002700 2345N 09234W 8428 01562 0091 +158 //// 330019 020 028 009 01
002730 2343N 09235W 8428 01562 0089 +163 +163 331020 021 023 007 00
002800 2342N 09236W 8432 01558 0088 +165 +157 332021 022 020 005 00
002830 2341N 09237W 8430 01561 0087 +169 +151 329021 022 018 005 00
002900 2340N 09239W 8430 01559 0089 +165 +162 327020 021 015 006 00
002930 2339N 09240W 8429 01562 0089 +164 +164 329019 020 021 004 00
003000 2338N 09241W 8430 01562 0087 +169 +159 330020 020 019 003 00
003030 2336N 09243W 8426 01567 0085 +175 +152 335021 022 014 004 00
003100 2335N 09244W 8437 01556 0086 +173 +149 326019 020 017 005 00
003130 2334N 09245W 8427 01567 0089 +170 +152 331020 021 018 004 00
$$
;
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#3014 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:35 pm

538
UZNT13 KNHC 290031
XXAA 79008 99244 70918 08241 99999 28812 25029 00505 ///// /////
92690 27240 25026 85440 25257 27008 88999 77999
31313 09608 80010
61616 AF307 0404A DON OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2443N09183W 0011 MBL WND 25526 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
023 999843 WL150 25525 083 REL 2443N09184W 001002 SPG 2443N09183W
001128 =
XXBB 79008 99244 70918 08241 00999 28812 11957 26412 22937 27235
33893 27859 44850 25257 55843 25058
21212 00999 25029 11979 25521 22961 25025 33947 24533 44931 25026
55898 24028 66877 25521 77860 24012 88843 30007
31313 09608 80010
61616 AF307 0404A DON OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2443N09183W 0011 MBL WND 25526 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
023 999843 WL150 25525 083 REL 2443N09184W 001002 SPG 2443N09183W
001128 =
;

Center drop. 999mb with 29kt wind.
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#3015 Postby Dave » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:35 pm

AF307 DROP

000
UZNT13 KNHC 290031
XXAA 79008 99244 70918 08241 99999 28812 25029 00505 ///// /////
92690 27240 25026 85440 25257 27008 88999 77999
31313 09608 80010
61616 AF307 0404A DON OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2443N09183W 0011 MBL WND 25526 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
023 999843 WL150 25525 083 REL 2443N09184W 001002 SPG 2443N09183W
001128 =
XXBB 79008 99244 70918 08241 00999 28812 11957 26412 22937 27235
33893 27859 44850 25257 55843 25058
21212 00999 25029 11979 25521 22961 25025 33947 24533 44931 25026
55898 24028 66877 25521 77860 24012 88843 30007
31313 09608 80010
61616 AF307 0404A DON OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2443N09183W 0011 MBL WND 25526 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
023 999843 WL150 25525 083 REL 2443N09184W 001002 SPG 2443N09183W
001128 =
;
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#3016 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:37 pm

999/29 kt wind in drop. Pressure likely 997mb right now.
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#3017 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:37 pm

The 999mb dropsonde measured 29 knots of wind at the surface. Pressure is lower than that... This suggests though that the mid and lower level circulations are still slightly tilted.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3018 Postby Javlin » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:37 pm

Well if you go look at the WV loop you can see high cloud movement NNW at the TX/LA border being created in part I think by the ULL in Mexico/part of TX.Then we may have a strengthing storm more poleward movement possible coming from that you got to start wondering if Mid/N TX come back into play?just wondering.

here: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
Last edited by Javlin on Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3019 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:37 pm

Anybody have any past storms this size as where they have maxed out, not saying this one will do anything real crazy.
My guess is 80mph near Victoria.
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Re:

#3020 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:39 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:The 999mb dropsonde measured 29 knots of wind at the surface. Pressure is lower than that... This suggests though that the mid and lower level circulations are still slightly tilted.


That supports a 997mb pressure.
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