ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

AF307 VDM

000
URNT12 KNHC 290220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/01:54:10Z
B. 24 deg 33 min N
092 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 40 kt
E. 125 deg 18 nm
F. 192 deg 27 kt
G. 129 deg 37 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 27 C / 1518 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0404A DON OB 10
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NE QUAD 00:07:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 33 KT NW QUAD 01:57:00Z

[ozonepete]

Don't think shear is much of an issue anymore but dry air still could be.

[Snow Deprived365]

Recon thread showing 9995
go look

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111254&start=240

For all of us lurking newbies can you tell us what 9995 means? Thanks.

[Dave]

534
URNT15 KNHC 290221
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 28 20110729
021200 2515N 09255W 8429 01575 0087 +193 +157 069025 026 022 000 00
021230 2516N 09256W 8433 01572 0088 +191 +158 071025 026 021 001 00
021300 2517N 09258W 8428 01578 0091 +186 +164 070026 026 019 002 00
021330 2518N 09259W 8432 01574 0092 +188 +165 070026 027 021 001 00
021400 2520N 09300W 8429 01577 0092 +187 +164 070026 026 019 000 00
021430 2521N 09302W 8427 01579 0093 +187 +163 068026 026 019 001 00
021500 2522N 09303W 8433 01574 0091 +191 +156 067025 026 018 002 00
021530 2523N 09304W 8430 01577 0093 +190 +151 069027 027 019 001 00
021600 2525N 09306W 8429 01579 0093 +190 +150 069027 028 018 001 00
021630 2526N 09307W 8430 01578 0094 +190 +156 070028 028 018 001 00
021700 2527N 09309W 8430 01579 0094 +190 +159 072027 028 018 001 00
021730 2528N 09310W 8431 01578 0095 +189 +161 075025 026 012 002 00
021800 2530N 09311W 8433 01577 0094 +192 +156 075024 025 016 002 00
021830 2531N 09313W 8432 01578 0094 +193 +156 074023 023 013 003 00
021900 2532N 09314W 8430 01579 0096 +191 +146 069023 023 011 003 00
021930 2533N 09315W 8426 01584 0098 +188 +148 069022 023 014 001 00
022000 2534N 09317W 8429 01581 0099 +186 +157 071022 022 013 001 00
022030 2536N 09318W 8430 01581 0101 +182 +164 071022 022 015 001 00
022100 2537N 09319W 8431 01579 0101 +182 +162 068022 022 013 002 00
022130 2538N 09321W 8434 01577 0103 +180 +162 071022 022 012 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 02:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:54:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°33'N 92°08'W (24.55N 92.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 348 miles (560 km) to the ESE (106°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (125°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 192° at 27kts (From the SSW at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 0:07:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:57:00Z

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon thread showing 9995
go look

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111254&start=240

For all of us lurking newbies can you tell us what 9995 means? Thanks.

Pressure rose again to 999.5 millibars. Convection also somewhat waning and shrinking. Maybe dry air entrainment?

[South Texas Storms]

I think Don is starting to weaken again based on satellite and the pressure has risen from 999mb to 1003mb.

[midnight8]

Recon thread showing 9995
go look

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111254&start=240

For all of us lurking newbies can you tell us what 9995 means? Thanks.

999.5 min pressure in the center last pass of the airplane through the storm

[hipshot]

I believe it is the barometric pressure in millibars without the decimal point, ie.
9995 equals 999.5 millibars but I am not met.

[ozonepete]

Recon thread showing 9995
go look

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111254&start=240

For all of us lurking newbies can you tell us what 9995 means? Thanks.

999.5 mb, which is the pressure. Earlier we were seeing 996 or so which was a lot lower. If it's really 999 that's higher and a sign the cyclone is not as strong. but remember that the NOAA planes take many readings. That was just one and shouldn't be counted as critical yet.

[Bocadude85]

The convection is starting to wane again....

[SouthDadeFish]

The convection is starting to wane again....

Yup but I see signs that we might see another burst close to the center location again over the next few hours. I definitely believe we saw dry air entrained into the storm and that collapsed the convection somewhat and the central pressure rose. However, it could go back down with another burst.

[ozonepete]

The convection is starting to wane again....

Yeah. Dry air maybe. That could be temporary but it's difficult to tell.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, not quite as symmetrical, but still much better than earlier in the day for sure.

[Dave]

AF307 Drop

000
UZNT13 KNHC 290227
XXAA 79028 99245 70921 08242 99003 28005 26533 00024 27805 26532
92717 25001 28526 85462 21600 30519 88999 77999
31313 09608 80154
61616 AF307 0404A DON OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2454N09213W 0156 MBL WND 28027 AEV 20802 DLM WND 28
525 002843 WL150 27034 084 REL 2455N09215W 015427 SPG 2454N09212W
015620 =
XXBB 79028 99245 70921 08242 00003 28005 11850 21600 22843 21000
21212 00003 26533 11985 28035 22975 29025 33959 28021 44898 27526
55879 28526 66843 31018
31313 09608 80154
61616 AF307 0404A DON OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2454N09213W 0156 MBL WND 28027 AEV 20802 DLM WND 28
525 002843 WL150 27034 084 REL 2455N09215W 015427 SPG 2454N09212W
015620 =
;

[HURAKAN]

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm pretty sure it's dry air. I don't any signs of shear increasing as cirrus outflow still looks pretty good.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...DON HEADING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE TEXAS COAST. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD
JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE
IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY
NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998
RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE
DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY
BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES.
SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND
NOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE
SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.6N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 27.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 28.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Dave]

301
URNT15 KNHC 290231
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 29 20110729
022200 2539N 09322W 8429 01583 0102 +183 +159 074022 023 014 001 00
022230 2541N 09323W 8428 01584 0104 +178 +165 075023 024 013 001 00
022300 2542N 09325W 8430 01581 0105 +176 +164 070023 024 013 002 00
022330 2543N 09326W 8429 01583 0104 +180 +164 073021 022 014 002 00
022400 2544N 09328W 8430 01583 0105 +180 +166 073021 022 010 001 00
022430 2546N 09329W 8430 01584 0104 +185 +159 067021 021 010 001 00
022500 2547N 09330W 8428 01586 0105 +183 +160 067022 023 008 002 00
022530 2548N 09332W 8432 01584 0105 +181 +162 068022 023 011 001 00
022600 2549N 09333W 8429 01586 0107 +179 +165 072022 023 009 002 00
022630 2550N 09334W 8433 01581 0106 +179 +168 071022 023 003 003 03
022700 2550N 09336W 8432 01584 0107 +177 +172 056018 018 /// /// 03
022730 2548N 09336W 8436 01579 0107 +181 +164 055017 017 007 002 00
022800 2546N 09336W 8429 01586 0108 +180 +162 051017 017 014 000 00
022830 2545N 09337W 8430 01585 0105 +182 +161 049016 016 009 002 00
022900 2543N 09337W 8430 01585 0105 +183 +164 052018 018 010 002 00
022930 2541N 09337W 8429 01584 0104 +184 +163 053019 019 012 002 00
023000 2539N 09337W 8429 01585 0104 +181 +167 048020 020 011 002 00
023030 2538N 09337W 8432 01581 0103 +180 +169 048020 020 012 002 00
023100 2536N 09337W 8429 01584 0103 +183 +169 045021 021 016 001 00
023130 2534N 09338W 8430 01583 0102 +183 +169 047021 021 015 001 00
$$
;

[Tireman4]

[quote="SunnyThoughts"]Yeah, not quite as symmetrical, but still much better than earlier in the day for sure.

An Annular Tropical Storm...woo hoo