ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

AF307 VDM #10 CCA

000
URNT12 KNHC 290231 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/01:54:10Z
B. 24 deg 33 min N
092 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 40 kt
E. 125 deg 18 nm
F. 192 deg 27 kt
G. 129 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 27 C / 1518 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0404A DON OB 10 CCA
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NE QUAD 00:07:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 33 KT NW QUAD 01:57:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

[Annie Oakley]

Wow! Dave doing Recon obs graciously posted this
DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 02:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:54:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°33'N 92°08'W (24.55N 92.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 348 miles (560 km) to the ESE (106°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (125°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 192° at 27kts (From the SSW at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 0:07:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:57:00Z


te
Dave

[SunnyThoughts]

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

[Annie Oakley]

Oops! This preceded the above....sorry

AF307 VDM

000
URNT12 KNHC 290220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/01:54:10Z
B. 24 deg 33 min N
092 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 40 kt
E. 125 deg 18 nm
F. 192 deg 27 kt
G. 129 deg 37 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 27 C / 1518 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0404A DON OB 10
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NE QUAD 00:07:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 33 KT NW QUAD 01:57:00Z

[TheDreamTraveler]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_04.gif

[Dave]

775
URNT15 KNHC 290241
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 30 20110729
023200 2532N 09338W 8432 01581 0102 +183 +166 055021 021 016 001 00
023230 2530N 09338W 8430 01583 0100 +185 +167 057020 020 016 001 00
023300 2529N 09338W 8429 01584 0101 +185 +165 055018 019 018 000 00
023330 2527N 09338W 8430 01581 0099 +186 +167 055018 019 016 001 00
023400 2525N 09338W 8428 01586 0099 +190 +164 055019 019 017 001 00
023430 2524N 09339W 8432 01583 0101 +187 +161 052017 018 012 002 00
023500 2522N 09339W 8429 01584 0100 +185 +175 043018 018 014 001 00
023530 2520N 09339W 8429 01584 0100 +186 +176 038019 019 012 002 00
023600 2518N 09339W 8428 01584 0102 +181 +172 036019 019 017 002 00
023630 2516N 09339W 8429 01584 0101 +183 +168 025018 018 019 001 00
023700 2515N 09339W 8429 01584 0103 +180 +174 021018 019 014 001 00
023730 2513N 09340W 8430 01583 0103 +181 +169 022018 019 014 001 00
023800 2511N 09340W 8430 01583 0103 +182 +163 024018 019 014 001 03
023830 2509N 09340W 8430 01583 0102 +184 +152 019017 017 014 001 00
023900 2507N 09340W 8430 01581 0101 +185 +152 017017 018 012 001 00
023930 2506N 09340W 8429 01584 0104 +185 +151 017018 019 011 000 00
024000 2504N 09340W 8432 01581 0104 +183 +152 015017 017 010 002 00
024030 2502N 09341W 8429 01584 0104 +180 +153 013017 017 011 001 00
024100 2500N 09341W 8429 01584 0103 +181 +155 012018 018 012 001 00
024130 2458N 09341W 8430 01581 0103 +185 +148 015017 017 012 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Annie Oakley]

H. EXTRAP 1002 mb

[HurricaneBrain]

Great job by meteorologist Greg Bostwick of KFDM news in Beaumont on his bold prediction of a near Brownsville landfall. He made the prediction yesterday morning when models were trending north toward the Galveston area.

[ozonepete]

Still has a lot of ground to cover before landfall, but symmetry is not impressive at all right now.

[ozonepete]

Great job by meteorologist Greg Bostwick of KFDM news in Beaumont on his bold prediction of a near Brownsville landfall. He made the prediction yesterday morning when models were trending north toward the Galveston area.

If that bears out, he was smart for realizing the killer ridge wouldn't budge enough.

Right now I'd say landfall just a tad north of Brownsville.

[Tireman4]

Great job by meteorologist Greg Bostwick of KFDM news in Beaumont on his bold prediction of a near Brownsville landfall. He made the prediction yesterday morning when models were trending north toward the Galveston area.

Still have the overnight to go. Not a complete certianty yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave]

840
URNT15 KNHC 290252
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 31 20110729
024200 2457N 09341W 8432 01579 0102 +183 +151 014017 017 009 002 00
024230 2455N 09341W 8430 01581 0103 +180 +151 017018 018 013 002 00
024300 2453N 09342W 8429 01583 0102 +180 +151 014018 018 011 001 00
024330 2451N 09342W 8432 01580 0100 +185 +149 012017 017 013 001 00
024400 2449N 09342W 8429 01583 0102 +183 +153 014018 020 013 001 00
024430 2448N 09342W 8431 01581 0105 +180 +155 013019 019 014 001 00
024500 2446N 09342W 8428 01584 0103 +181 +151 013018 018 011 002 00
024530 2444N 09342W 8432 01579 0103 +180 +165 012018 018 016 001 00
024600 2442N 09343W 8428 01584 0101 +182 +159 008017 017 012 002 03
024630 2440N 09343W 8432 01578 0099 +185 +151 006018 018 015 001 00
024700 2439N 09343W 8432 01580 0099 +185 +151 009019 019 013 001 00
024730 2437N 09343W 8428 01583 0098 +187 +151 007019 019 012 001 00
024800 2435N 09343W 8432 01579 0101 +185 +151 008018 019 016 001 00
024830 2433N 09343W 8429 01583 0103 +185 +151 006018 018 010 001 00
024900 2431N 09344W 8429 01584 0103 +185 +151 005018 018 010 002 00
024930 2429N 09344W 8432 01579 0102 +180 +165 000017 018 008 001 00
025000 2428N 09344W 8428 01584 0102 +179 +172 002016 017 011 001 03
025030 2426N 09344W 8427 01585 0101 +183 +161 002016 016 006 002 00
025100 2424N 09344W 8430 01580 0100 +185 +161 357016 017 007 002 00
025130 2422N 09344W 8431 01580 0100 +186 +145 354014 014 009 002 00
$$
;

[HurricaneBrain]

Of course nothing is set in stone, but props to him as he made a very bold statement (that has a good chance of verifying) at the time our area was targeted by many models.

[HurricaneBrain]

A bold statement that wasn't even considered yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

549
URNT15 KNHC 290301
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 32 20110729
025200 2421N 09345W 8430 01583 0100 +185 +144 352014 016 009 001 00
025230 2419N 09345W 8429 01583 0100 +186 +145 353015 015 009 001 00
025300 2417N 09345W 8427 01585 0101 +185 +150 349015 015 008 001 00
025330 2415N 09345W 8428 01583 0099 +185 +152 350015 015 005 002 00
025400 2413N 09345W 8432 01575 0097 +185 +152 351016 016 004 002 00
025430 2412N 09345W 8432 01575 0097 +184 +154 353015 016 007 002 00
025500 2410N 09346W 8430 01578 0097 +182 +152 353016 016 003 002 03
025530 2408N 09346W 8430 01578 0098 +180 +156 352015 015 004 001 03
025600 2406N 09346W 8430 01578 0099 +180 +154 346015 015 004 003 03
025630 2405N 09346W 8430 01578 0099 +180 +151 343014 014 002 003 03
025700 2403N 09346W 8429 01579 0098 +182 +157 346014 014 004 002 03
025730 2401N 09346W 8429 01578 0097 +180 +158 348012 013 003 001 00
025800 2359N 09347W 8433 01575 0101 +178 +143 342012 012 004 002 00
025830 2357N 09347W 8429 01578 0100 +180 +136 344012 013 002 002 03
025900 2356N 09347W 8429 01578 0101 +180 +141 341011 012 003 002 03
025930 2354N 09347W 8429 01579 0101 +177 +150 333011 012 004 001 00
030000 2352N 09347W 8429 01579 0102 +177 +155 337011 011 002 001 03
030030 2350N 09347W 8432 01578 0102 +180 +145 338010 010 005 001 00
030100 2349N 09348W 8431 01578 0101 +180 +140 337010 010 004 001 03
030130 2347N 09348W 8429 01580 0103 +180 +142 338011 012 003 002 03
$$
;


Anyone want to take over for awhile? My eyes could use a break.

[HURAKAN]

Dave, I can finish the mission ... thanks a lot!!

[Dave]

All yours HURAKAN....will be ready for more missions. Think I'll actually eat supper now too..missed it earlier.

[Annie Oakley]

Bravo Dave and Hurakan