WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#101 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:42 am

JTWC looks like has it as well coming very close to Okinawa in 5 days..but we all know that is an eternity for a storm...alot can happend
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#102 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:45 am

Nice blow up of convection over the past 9-12hrs, thats exactly what was needed to kick this system into gear. JWTC track looks close to the GFS, though perhaps a little further west.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ejeraldmc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:27 pm
Location: Batangas

#103 Postby ejeraldmc » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:45 am

It keeps moving west. Uh oh....
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#104 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:09 pm

12z ECM has another very interesting track, taking the system WNW, then near due north followed by a big bend to the west and in China, just north of Taiwan.

Very strong looking system on this run as well.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#105 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:11 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 12.4N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 15.0N 131.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 301800UTC 17.1N 130.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 311800UTC 19.5N 130.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
0 likes   

User avatar
ManilaTC
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 593
Age: 47
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:56 pm

Still moving west and is approaching 130E.
0 likes   
The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.

WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC

User avatar
climateconcern23
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 35
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2011 4:38 am
Location: Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby climateconcern23 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:09 pm

It seems that high pressure located south of japan blocking this system.

hope it wont turn more west and hit our dear country.

:l
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:55 pm

deep convection continuing to increase

i would place the intensity at 50 knots in the next jtwc warning. let's see what they have to say
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:23 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 280408
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
208 PM CHST THU JUL 28 2011

PMZ161-171-290400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
208 PM CHST THU JUL 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM 11W MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM YAP AND PALAU...

AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 11W WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.6 DEGREES EAST.
11W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 MPH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL STORM 11W...REFER TO
BULLETINS ISSUED BY NWS GUAM UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM AND
BULLETINS ISSUED BY JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPN32 PGTW.

SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF 11W ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER BOTH PALAU AND YAP
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRIGGER MUDSLIDES AT PALAU TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MUDSLIDES ARE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ON STEEP SLOPES MADE OF
CLAY AND ALONG ROADS CUT THROUGH THE HILLS OF BABELDAOB. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR SHOWERS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.

COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ARE
ADVISED TO MONITOR WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM THE LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...LOCAL DISASTER OFFICES AND LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND UPDATE STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

$$

M. AYDLETT/ZIOBRO

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 282143
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112011
800 AM CHST FRI JUL 29 2011

...TROPICAL STORM MUIFA SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...

THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MUIFA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.5 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 375 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 365 MILES NORTH
OF KOROR PALAU.

TROPICAL STORM MUIFA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH....AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MUIFA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...12.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
133.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


TXPQ29 KNES 290306
TCSWNP

A. 11W (MUIFA)

B. 29/0232Z

C. 12.9N

D. 133.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/SCATT

H. REMARKS... 5/10 WHITE BANDING FOR DT=3.0. MET AND PT=3.5. FT IS
BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/2335Z 12.6N 134.3E SSMIS
28/2344Z 13.0N 133.9E SSMIS
29/0028Z 12.9N 133.8E SCATT


...SALEMI
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:27 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.4N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.9N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.7N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.7N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.4N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 133.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2858
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#111 Postby supercane » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:32 pm

Image
ZCZC 383
WTPQ51 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 12.5N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 14.9N 131.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 310000UTC 17.1N 130.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 010000UTC 19.3N 130.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 020000UTC 21.7N 129.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 030000UTC 24.1N 129.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =
NNNN
Image
WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ON THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 28/2021Z 37 GHZ SSMIS SHOWS A MORE DISCERNABLE LLCC, AND A
91 GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME TIME SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. A 28/0012Z
AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES CURVED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 50 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST SOUTH OF A
WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TS 11W HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS BEGUN RETREATING
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. 11W
IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 11W WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN INVOLVING
MANY COMPONENTS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALL EXHIBITING
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DEGREE OF INFLUENCE. AS TS 11W RESPONDS TO
THE WESTERLY RETREAT OF THE STR DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS,
STEERING WILL BECOME WEAK, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD NORTHWARD, AND TS 11W WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AS 11W GAINS LATITUDE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WILL RELAX, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH, AND
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
C. AFTER TAU 48, 11W WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY A BUILDING
STR TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
JAPAN. 11W WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO TYPHOON INTENSITY AND BEGIN A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 96 AS THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES
MERGE AND BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 120
THIS STR WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON 11W AND NUDGE THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
POOR AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AS OF THE LATEST RUNS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH RESOLVING THE TIMING ON EACH
OF THE STEERING MECHANISMS. WBAR AND EGRR ARE NOW FAVORING A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AND ARE CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTION. BY TAU 120
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OVER 300 NM AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF 11W. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR CONSENSUS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
NNNN
Image
TPPN11 PGTW 290016
A. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA)
B. 28/2332Z
C. 12.8N
D. 133.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/2021Z 12.7N 133.9E SSMS
QUAST
Image
Image
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:44 pm

it looks like muifa and 96W might become one storm. if that happens, i think muifa has a chance to rapidly intensify sooner rather than later due to its ever improving large outflow.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:52 am

I think there is some disparity going on about Muifa's location.

JMA:
TS 1109 (MUIFA)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 29 July 2011

<Analyses at 29/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S460km(250NM)
N370km(200NM)

JTWC latest satfix:
TPPN11 PGTW 290340

A. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA)

B. 29/0232Z

C. 12.8N

D. 133.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/2144Z 12.8N 133.9E SSMS


BELMONDO

CIMSS Real-time ADT:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUL 2011 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 12:56:33 N Lon : 133:30:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.8mb/ 55.0kt
*these ADT coordinates should be read in degrees, by the way.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ManilaTC
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 593
Age: 47
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:11 am

Its now either moving Northeast-ENE, executing a loop, drifting or merging with 96W
0 likes   
The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.

WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#115 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:52 am

It looks very good right now, looks like its really trying to wrap itself up at the moment.

ECM identical to its alst few runs in that strong bend back west and still becoming a very strong system, probably a 4/5...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

cebuboy
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:29 am
Location: Cebu, Philippines

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby cebuboy » Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:56 am

This is one thing I would NOT like to happen..I mean I live in Cebu and right now the weather is getting darker.. A lot of Cebuanos are either living near the shoreline or some in the mountain. Even our big cities are beside the sea. I will pray it will move straight north starting this evening or tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#117 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:02 am

GFS doesn't bend it nearly as far west and then goes back NW by 180hrs. One thing to note is it BOMBS Muifa out, and becomes a very powerful system, no doubtd about it translating as a 5 if the GFS was right...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#118 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:39 am

Still going right over Okinawa...wow...Monday MAY be a loong day of starting to prepare if it stays on the same course....
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1221
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Tokyo
Contact:

Re:

#119 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:48 am

StormingB81 wrote:Still going right over Okinawa...wow...Monday MAY be a loong day of starting to prepare if it stays on the same course....


Which model are you referring to?

ECMWF trend continues and that GFS run does indeed spawn a monster. UKMET also develops a strong system too!

JMA 5 days track has Okinawa right in the bullseye but with a large cone of error anywhere from Taiwan to Kyushu needs to watch this closely still! Going to be a really interesting one to track!
0 likes   
James - Documenting tropical cyclones...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

Re: Re:

#120 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:04 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Still going right over Okinawa...wow...Monday MAY be a loong day of starting to prepare if it stays on the same course....


Which model are you referring to?

ECMWF trend continues and that GFS run does indeed spawn a monster. UKMET also develops a strong system too!

JMA 5 days track has Okinawa right in the bullseye but with a large cone of error anywhere from Taiwan to Kyushu needs to watch this closely still! Going to be a really interesting one to track!


Sorry I was looking at the ECMWF! Yes one to watch from Japan to Tawain and China...this one looks to be a monster in the making...
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests