ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
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invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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201107290409
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

Thread that was at Talking Tropics forum about this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111267

[SouthDadeFish]

Nice, just in time for August. The peak of the season is approaching and this should kick it off nicely.

[jhpigott]

Here we go . . .

Supposed to go out of town starting next Thrusday for a week. I hope I don't have any suprise vistors while I'm gone.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290412
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0412 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110729 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110729  0000   110729  1200   110730  0000   110730  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.3N  39.5W    8.8N  41.2W    9.9N  43.2W   11.2N  46.0W
BAMD     8.3N  39.5W    9.0N  41.3W   10.1N  43.1W   11.4N  45.1W
BAMM     8.3N  39.5W    8.8N  41.3W    9.9N  43.0W   11.2N  44.9W
LBAR     8.3N  39.5W    8.8N  42.3W    9.9N  45.2W   11.0N  48.2W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110731  0000   110801  0000   110802  0000   110803  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  49.3W   14.9N  55.9W   16.2N  62.6W   17.3N  68.4W
BAMD    12.7N  47.1W   14.7N  51.3W   16.1N  55.1W   18.0N  57.6W
BAMM    12.5N  47.1W   14.2N  52.0W   15.4N  57.1W   17.4N  61.8W
LBAR    12.6N  51.0W   14.9N  56.0W   15.9N  60.1W   14.5N  66.2W
SHIP        48KTS          63KTS          72KTS          76KTS
DSHP        48KTS          63KTS          72KTS          76KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.3N LONCUR =  39.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =   8.0N LONM12 =  36.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =   7.8N LONM24 =  32.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[blp]

00z GFS out 102hrs stronger.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfstropical850mbVortSLP102.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

SHIPS is forecasting Hurricane Emily. Not sure why GFS is dropping it.

Edit: Just saw the 00Z GFS. I guess it came to reality.

[NDG]

Crap, my aggressive forecast a month ago of 3 named storms for July is going to bust if SHIPS is right

[cycloneye]

[TexasF6]

About time!!! 91L has been looking good for a awhile....IMO...

[cycloneye]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

[TheDreamTraveler]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

It seems a bit early to get prepared, because for all we know the storm might not even form. And even so, it might miss the islands completely. Still, it's good to be well prepared.

[HURAKAN]

up in NRL

[artist]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

It seems a bit early to get prepared, because for all we know the storm might not even form. And even so, it might miss the islands completely. Still, it's good to be well prepared.

Always better safe than sorry. By June 1st you should have most prep done, and then when you see an invest possibly headed your way, double check and get those last minute things ready.

[Nikki]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

It is never too early to be prepared! Way to look out for your friends!!

[Ptarmigan]

I rather be prepared than unprepared. I think 91L could be Emily and our first major hurricane of the season.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS loop until 174 hours. It crashes against Hispanola.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go, didn't expect to see this tonight! Buckle up folks we're in for a long ride the new few months.

[HurricaneBrain]

I wonder how much of a factor South America will be on this system.

[AJC3]

I wonder how much of a factor South America will be on this system.

From all model indications thus far, none.

[NDG]

First threat, the Leeward Islands at least, if tonight's SHIPS intensity model is correct. It is in a low latitude that with even the weakness forecasted in the Atlantic over the next few days by the models it could possibly not gain enough latitude to avoid the Islands.
I don't see any reason to discard how aggressive the SHIPS is with 91L, I don't see any shear over the next few days in its path.
As for a forecast track after the Windward and or Leeward Islands, it is past a 5-7 day range and even the euro struggles with getting a sypnotic set up right past that range. So it would be not accurate to say that it would be an East Coast or Gulf Coast threat, etc, at this time, if we have a system to track in that time period.