ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 06:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 5:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°59'N 92°56'W (24.9833N 92.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 292 miles (469 km) to the ESE (103°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,455m (4,774ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 81° at 34kts (From the E at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:56:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:56:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

[ROCK]

0z Euro takes it north of Corpus Christi.

needs to find the edge of the ridge if its going to do that...slow down and make the turn....not sure the EURO is seeing this for what it is....and I am a EURO hugger.....

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah appears don is headed for NE Mexico/ South texas...

yep game over....ridge building in nicely...funny my neighbor left for a family vacation at South Padre and told me to take care of his house.....ha.....

Rock our drought is a joke now. This is getting more than ridiculous. When will it end? Can you please share a xanex with me? My goodness....

[Dave]

[Dave]

834
URNT15 KNHC 290612
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 51 20110729
060200 2532N 09207W 8433 01574 0101 +174 +166 155042 043 029 001 00
060230 2534N 09206W 8428 01580 0103 +174 +155 155043 044 030 001 00
060300 2535N 09205W 8433 01575 0102 +178 +156 154042 043 031 000 00
060330 2536N 09204W 8429 01580 0101 +182 +147 154043 044 030 001 00
060400 2538N 09203W 8430 01580 0101 +186 +137 151043 044 030 000 00
060430 2539N 09201W 8432 01580 0100 +190 +122 149043 044 028 001 00
060500 2541N 09200W 8429 01584 0104 +188 +115 151044 044 028 002 00
060530 2542N 09159W 8430 01584 0108 +182 +133 151042 042 027 000 00
060600 2543N 09158W 8429 01586 0109 +180 +122 152043 043 026 002 00
060630 2545N 09157W 8428 01589 0109 +181 +137 150042 042 027 000 00
060700 2546N 09156W 8430 01586 0107 +185 +130 146041 042 028 000 00
060730 2547N 09154W 8429 01586 0109 +184 +123 148041 042 027 000 00
060800 2549N 09153W 8426 01590 0107 +188 +114 150043 044 027 000 00
060830 2550N 09152W 8430 01585 0108 +187 +113 150044 044 025 001 00
060900 2551N 09151W 8429 01589 0111 +184 +114 150044 044 027 000 00
060930 2553N 09150W 8426 01591 0112 +183 +110 149044 044 026 000 00
061000 2554N 09149W 8433 01584 0113 +184 +106 148044 044 024 000 00
061030 2555N 09147W 8429 01589 0116 +180 +105 148043 043 022 001 00
061100 2557N 09146W 8429 01590 0116 +180 +101 150042 043 023 001 00
061130 2558N 09145W 8430 01589 0114 +182 +108 150042 042 020 001 00
$$
;

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro takes it north of Corpus Christi.

needs to find the edge of the ridge if its going to do that...slow down and make the turn....not sure the EURO is seeing this for what it is....and I am a EURO hugger.....

Agreed. I'm pessimistic.

[ROCK]

Don is blowing up attm....looks better than I have seen since coming off the Yucatan..that aint saying much...Probably in the 990MB range now and deepening....those are some cold tops....

[Dave]

[South Texas Storms]

The latest HPC QPF forecast for Don is a joke for us in south central/SE TX. Earlier today they were forecasting an inch for Houston and 2-5 inches for Austin/SA. Now it's down to less than .25 inches for all of us. What a heart breaker you are Don.

[TwisterFanatic]

0z Euro takes it north of Corpus Christi.

It's got some work to do then if the EURO wants to verify.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 290619
97779 06164 61262 91500 15200 15037 1910/ /2524
RMK AF307 0404A DON OB 20
SWS = 21 KTS
LAST REPORT


Heading to the barn...mission over.

[TwisterFanatic]

The latest HPC QPF forecast for Don is a joke for us in south central/SE TX. Earlier today they were forecasting an inch for Houston and 2-5 inches for Austin/SA. Now it's down to less than .25 inches for all of us. What a heart breaker you are Don.

If this start of the season is any indication, there will be MANY more chances.

[TwisterFanatic]

Steering currents

[South Texas Storms]

The latest HPC QPF forecast for Don is a joke for us in south central/SE TX. Earlier today they were forecasting an inch for Houston and 2-5 inches for Austin/SA. Now it's down to less than .25 inches for all of us. What a heart breaker you are Don.

If this start of the season is any indication, there will be MANY more chances.

Yeah but it makes me really sad to think just earlier today I was forecasted to get over 3 inches of rain and now it's down to less than .25 inch.

[TwisterFanatic]

The latest HPC QPF forecast for Don is a joke for us in south central/SE TX. Earlier today they were forecasting an inch for Houston and 2-5 inches for Austin/SA. Now it's down to less than .25 inches for all of us. What a heart breaker you are Don.

If this start of the season is any indication, there will be MANY more chances.

Yeah but it makes me really sad to think just earlier today I was forecasted to get over 3 inches of rain and now it's down to less than .25 inch.

I feel your pain, bud. I'm living and dying by popcorn daytime heating Thunderstorms up here in Oklahoma.

[hriverajr]

Well it is showing up on brownsville radar now

[WxEnthus]

Continuing to burst and looking much healthier in the last few frames on WV and IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[KWT]

Looks like its keeping that bursting pattern, I did think it may have been on its way last night but looking like things aren't quite condusive enough overall...

[Sanibel]

Black IR bursts.

[KWT]

Its quite impressive how well its been bursting despite nearly always keeping that sheared presentation for allbut maybe 3-6hrs last night.