ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[JPmia]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

Have to agree.. hard to see a storm at that low latitude not impacting the islands in some fashion.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Watching closely here in SE North Carolina for 91L...Looks to be the first hurricane, and even major hurricane, of the season.

[ronjon]

0z ECM ensemble model shows mid-level ridging quickly building back in after 144 hrs.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances that this system makes landfall along the Eastern Seaboard?

To early to tell at this point. First area to be concerned about is the Islands. After that there will be time to worry about a possible US landfall where ever that may be. Appears at this point though that the Bermuda High will shift east allowing 91L to recurve out to sea with out making a Main land US landfall. We shall see though. Still plenty of time for us to track 91L!

If it shifts too much, could it turn back west towards Florida and the Gulf though?

[CrazyC83]

With those kind of steering currents, looks to be a Gulf storm.

[jdray]

The timing of that ridge building back in should be interesting for quite a few folks on the east coast. Probably still recurve, but ridges are fun to watch.

[theweatherwatch]

What are the chances that this system makes landfall along the Eastern Seaboard?

To early to tell at this point. First area to be concerned about is the Islands. After that there will be time to worry about a possible US landfall where ever that may be. Appears at this point though that the Bermuda High will shift east allowing 91L to recurve out to sea with out making a Main land US landfall. We shall see though. Still plenty of time for us to track 91L!

If it shifts too much, could it turn back west towards Florida and the Gulf though?

If it doesn't shift east as much as forecast by the models then it could hit the US. This early out there are so many what ifs that could play out over the coming weeks. At this point it's best to just focus on the Islands which will be affected first of all. Still a long ways away from any potential US landfall.

EDIT: Or if the High builds back in quickly like I just saw that the models are forecasting from the 91L Discussion thread. I hadn't checked the longer range models.

-- Please note that I am in no way a professional Met. Everything I say are my own thoughts and ideas based on the models. Please see the information provided by the NHC when making life or death choices! --

[ddad040]

06z GFS smacks PR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126s.gif

If I'm correct. Would that not put a cat 2 or so in the Hebert Box? Just an observation.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 231145.GIF

In my opinion, looks like there's a LLC

[cycloneye]

Still some easterly shear

[theweatherwatch]

06z GFS smacks PR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126s.gif

If I'm correct. Would that not put a cat 2 or so in the Herbert Box? Just an observation.

Some of the models have a cat 3 at that point... Right there however I am not sure if that would be a cat 2 or 3.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

12z Surface Analysis by TAFB:



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[DisasterMagnet]

I'm a lurker for the most part, but from the season's start, it felt like 1995 to me. That year was fishy, but I don't think we'll see as many recurve as last year.

With the models trending towards a VI/PR hit, it brings back memories of Luis and Marilyn. The islands were so focused on Luis that Marilyn was a big suprise. 91L will start getting a lot of attention, I'm sure.

NOTE: I have no meteorlogical expertise whatsoever, just a layperson's interest in tropical systems. Please do not interpret anything I post as anything other than my own opinion.

[Sanibel]

Another dry system. The season is starting to force development in the hurricane belt.

[ConvergenceZone]

The timing of that ridge building back in should be interesting for quite a few folks on the east coast. Probably still recurve, but ridges are fun to watch.

Yea, I still think there is a slight chance that this won't recurve, if the timing is perfect and the high just happens to build it just in time to allow it to not to recurve. But as Derek Ortt the Meteorologist has said before, only a small percentage of storms forming this far out in the Atlantic, don't recurve. Recurve is the Norm, but sometimes the
timing is such where recurve doesn't happen. I think that's why I always default to recurve unless conditions
are telling me otherwise.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[cycloneye]

Another dry system. The season is starting to force development in the hurricane belt.

This one has a big moisture envelope.

[SFLcane]

Couple of trofs in time will take a swip at this as it approaches the SE . Looks like a serious threat to the NE islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I would guess that 91l will be either out to sea or a Carolina threat. East coast trough setting up. From what I remember reading. You need a trough to evacuate the tropics to sort of like a restart. I think I read something like that on JB site when he was with Accuweather.

Way too early to make that call, lets give it 4 or 5 days and i think we will have a much better handle on 91L.

Exactly, besides the other usual long range issues involving steering patterns, there isn't even a well defined centre for the models to latch onto yet. Right now, it is just a wait and see type situation.