ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Frank2]

The GFS is very reliable at the mid latitudes and continues to show the ridge being pushed off to the east in several days - whatever forms from 91L - if anything does form - is more likely to move northward towards the weakness forecast to form east of the US east coast...

Of course never say never, but right now that's what it looks like might happen...

Frank

[PTrackerLA]

Honestly not all that impressed with 91L at this point, I definitely think it will develop but will also take some time. We'll see how this evolves but for those in the islands please watch closely!

[EyELeSs1]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 231145.GIF

In my opinion, looks like there's a LLC

Hurakan I totally agree with you... you can also see they adjusted this floater eastward behind the ball of convection they were following earlier to an exposed semi-well defined low level circ.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL912011&starting_image=2011AL91_1KMSRVIS_201104231145.GIF

Seems to be getting better defined as well. Let's see if some convection start firing nearer to this area



PS. watching very closely from Antigua

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec6vis04

Another good loop to look at this system

[cycloneye]

To our friends in the Eastern Caribbean,we have the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean weather forum,where you can post about preparations and observations in your area.The link is at my signature below. Welcome back EyELeSs1.

[Bocadude85]

The GFS is very reliable at the mid latitudes and continues to show the ridge being pushed off to the east in several days - whatever forms from 91L - if anything does form - is more likely to move northward towards the weakness forecast to form east of the US east coast...

Of course never say never, but right now that's what it looks like might happen...

Frank

Yes but the system could also get trapped under a building ridge and turn back W Towards the US Coast.. Andrew and Jeanne are a couple of examples. I am not saying that this is what will happen but just pointing out that it is a possibility. The NWS in Miami is calling for winds to veer from northerly to easterly here next Friday which is usually indicative of some sort of ridging. But of course this is all just speculation until something actually develops.

[ConvergenceZone]

The GFS is very reliable at the mid latitudes and continues to show the ridge being pushed off to the east in several days - whatever forms from 91L - if anything does form - is more likely to move northward towards the weakness forecast to form east of the US east coast...

Of course never say never, but right now that's what it looks like might happen...

Frank

Well, even though a recurve is the likely scenerio, I still think the East Coast Should kep an eye on the weather
just in case, because ya never know. Stranger things have happened.....

[EyELeSs1]

To our friends in the Eastern Caribbean,we have the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean weather forum,where you can post about preparations and observations in your area.The link is at my signature below. Welcome back EyELeSs1.

Thanks cycloneye. It's been a while seems like we have to really keep an eye on this one

[capepoint]

The GFS is very reliable at the mid latitudes and continues to show the ridge being pushed off to the east in several days - whatever forms from 91L - if anything does form - is more likely to move northward towards the weakness forecast to form east of the US east coast...

Of course never say never, but right now that's what it looks like might happen...

Frank

Agreed. However, we are talking at least a week or so away from US, and the diffence of 300 miles or so in track then could be the difference between a strike and a total fish for the EC or Bermuda, so it does not take too much of a change in the models as far as timing and location of the weakness to make it an eye-opener or a good nap. Just too far out to try to even guess at anything about where it goes past the islands, and even what islands may be affected, if any at all.
Those in the islands need to watch this carefully now. The rest of us on the EC and along the gulf need to wish them luck and keep an uneasy eye on it for a few days, we may need the islanders to return the luck wish next week.

[carpe vinum]

off topic: apologies, didn't see a related thread for the ?.

But why is the disturbance just N of Panama not getting more attention? ~12N 81W
Thanks

[northjaxpro]

The GFS is very reliable at the mid latitudes and continues to show the ridge being pushed off to the east in several days - whatever forms from 91L - if anything does form - is more likely to move northward towards the weakness forecast to form east of the US east coast...

Of course never say never, but right now that's what it looks like might happen...

Frank

Yes but the system could also get trapped under a building ridge and turn back W Towards the US Coast.. Andrew and Jeanne are a couple of examples. I am not saying that this is what will happen but just pointing out that it is a possibility. The NWS in Miami is calling for winds to veer from northerly to easterly here next Friday which is usually indicative of some sort of ridging. But of course this is all just speculation until something actually develops.

Good observations. It is far too early at this point to know how 91L will evolve. All we can do is watch and wait. Yes, we can examine the models, but until the system truly is established in the coming days, it is all speculation as to what 91L will do. The only certainty at this point is that our neighbors down in the islands need to be very vigilant by early next week of a possible real threat to be impacted by 91L.

[AHS2011]

Does anyone know when the model runs come out?

[cycloneye]

You can see the small LLC in the middle of the big envelope.

[cycloneye]

GFS tracks thru NE Caribbean,then to near the Bahamas.

12z GFS until 162 hours

[ConvergenceZone]

In addition to the Northern Carib Islands, I also don't want to forget our friends in Bermuda. Bermuda really needs to keep an eye on this one if it develops.

[shaggy]

This could certainly be an interesting storm for the islands as it appears likely that it will affect them in one way or another. Its a much bigger question mark when we start talking about what happens after that. Got plenty of time in the states to watch this but you guys in the islands should be watching VERY closlely.

[theweatherwatch]

Nice LLC developing now!

[lebron23]

East coast? Fish? Or florida straits into gulf?

[artist]

off topic: apologies, didn't see a related thread for the ?.

But why is the disturbance just N of Panama not getting more attention? ~12N 81W
Thanks

Welcome to s2k!
It is a monsoon trough according to the NHC - here is a link to the image where it is designated as such -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
and here is their discussion of it at this point in time -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1201.shtml?

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 18N
TO 23N11W 15N17W TO 13N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N24W TO
9N38W 8N42W...INTO NORTH CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO
10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO
THE WEST OF 40W.

and if you read that page, you can scroll down to their discussion of the Caribbean Sea to get a little more info about it. Hope this helps.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah clearly we have a LLC convection should increase once again over the next few hours. Depending on how much convection can persist over night and through the day tomorrow... we could see a TD by 5pm tomorrow or 11