ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Raininfyr]

Sitting here in BTR and it is raining cats and dogs. Rain came up from the south. A little unusual for us, usually comes barreling at us from the northwest. Hoping that the dry areas in Texas get them some rain from this event. Strange little storm, hard to tell where it is going to end up!

[lebron23]

Wow, lol, this storm is WEIRD. the dirty side seems to be the south of the center?

[KWT]

Shame the shear couldn't have come up from the south as its actually quite a convectivly active system...

[Dave]

954
URNT15 KNHC 291703
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 44 20110729
165400 2655N 09543W 8432 01586 0111 +190 +048 064027 028 029 001 00
165430 2653N 09542W 8428 01589 0109 +192 +049 063024 025 029 000 03
165500 2652N 09541W 8426 01589 0105 +196 +049 064024 024 030 000 00
165530 2651N 09540W 8432 01582 0099 +202 +050 071023 023 031 000 03
165600 2650N 09538W 8428 01583 0093 +208 +052 072021 022 031 001 03
165630 2649N 09537W 8429 01578 0086 +214 +055 071023 024 031 000 00
165700 2648N 09536W 8430 01575 0082 +215 +058 072026 027 031 000 03
165730 2647N 09535W 8429 01574 0076 +219 +061 073028 029 031 001 03
165800 2646N 09534W 8428 01571 0072 +220 +064 070031 033 030 000 00
165830 2644N 09533W 8429 01570 0073 +215 +067 081033 034 029 000 03
165900 2643N 09533W 8429 01566 0070 +215 +069 082035 036 030 000 00
165930 2641N 09532W 8429 01563 0067 +216 +069 076035 035 030 001 03
170000 2640N 09532W 8426 01565 0064 +218 +071 069033 033 031 000 00
170030 2638N 09532W 8429 01563 0066 +215 +071 063032 032 031 000 00
170100 2636N 09531W 8429 01560 0069 +203 +072 056030 031 032 001 03
170130 2635N 09530W 8429 01555 0066 +201 +071 049029 030 028 000 03
170200 2634N 09529W 8429 01553 0055 +214 +069 050031 033 027 000 00
170230 2632N 09528W 8429 01552 0043 +232 +070 056033 034 028 000 00
170300 2631N 09527W 8430 01548 0041 +233 +072 053030 032 029 000 00
170330 2630N 09526W 8424 01555 0040 +234 +076 061019 024 030 000 00
$$
;

[lebron23]

Pretty nice rain bands into Houston...Sky got VERY dark with some Heavy Rain / Wind and Thunder.

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

494
URNT15 KNHC 291713
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 45 20110729
170400 2628N 09525W 8433 01546 0043 +228 +079 099009 010 027 000 03
170430 2627N 09524W 8426 01550 0049 +217 +082 102007 008 028 001 00
170500 2626N 09523W 8429 01549 0057 +207 +083 041005 006 029 001 00
170530 2624N 09522W 8430 01550 0061 +198 +081 323004 005 030 000 00
170600 2623N 09521W 8423 01556 0066 +192 +077 315007 008 028 000 03
170630 2623N 09519W 8436 01553 0079 +184 +070 079009 012 /// /// 03
170700 2624N 09518W 8431 01552 0065 +203 +065 114012 013 026 001 03
170730 2625N 09517W 8432 01552 0061 +209 +063 128024 028 025 000 03
170800 2626N 09516W 8429 01552 0051 +221 +065 128028 029 021 000 00
170830 2627N 09515W 8417 01561 0048 +224 +069 120029 029 025 002 00
170900 2629N 09513W 8410 01572 0053 +220 +075 125032 034 029 000 03
170930 2630N 09512W 8420 01565 0056 +218 +079 131039 044 031 000 03
171000 2632N 09510W 8433 01553 0053 +228 +083 131047 050 034 000 03
171030 2633N 09509W 8417 01574 0058 +225 +086 137049 050 039 000 03
171100 2635N 09507W 8429 01564 0056 +233 +087 136052 054 042 001 03
171130 2636N 09505W 8419 01576 0061 +227 +089 135052 053 044 000 00
171200 2637N 09504W 8423 01577 0072 +221 +089 138048 050 046 000 03
171230 2639N 09502W 8416 01588 0079 +213 +088 141048 049 044 000 03
171300 2640N 09501W 8419 01587 0083 +210 +085 142054 056 044 000 03
171330 2642N 09459W 8427 01581 0091 +207 +083 139050 053 044 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

296
URNT15 KNHC 291723
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 46 20110729
171400 2643N 09458W 8424 01588 0098 +197 +080 144052 053 039 000 03
171430 2645N 09456W 8423 01592 0105 +191 +077 146053 055 040 000 03
171500 2646N 09454W 8429 01585 0111 +181 +074 149051 052 040 000 03
171530 2648N 09453W 8422 01592 0111 +184 +070 151049 050 037 000 03
171600 2649N 09451W 8425 01592 0113 +184 +067 151050 052 034 000 03
171630 2651N 09449W 8424 01598 0120 +181 +065 151050 052 033 000 03
171700 2652N 09448W 8419 01604 0120 +184 +063 151047 048 033 000 03
171730 2654N 09446W 8420 01604 0123 +182 +062 151046 047 032 000 03
171800 2656N 09444W 8429 01598 0126 +181 +060 149045 046 033 000 03
171830 2657N 09443W 8418 01610 0127 +180 +059 147043 044 031 000 03
171900 2659N 09441W 8417 01610 0126 +181 +059 147041 042 031 000 03
171930 2700N 09440W 8423 01604 0125 +187 +058 144040 040 032 000 03
172000 2702N 09438W 8420 01610 0126 +188 +059 139038 038 033 000 03
172030 2703N 09436W 8425 01604 0128 +183 +061 138037 037 032 000 03
172100 2704N 09435W 8421 01609 0131 +180 +063 138036 036 034 000 03
172130 2706N 09433W 8422 01610 0135 +179 +062 143038 039 034 000 03
172200 2707N 09432W 8422 01613 0138 +175 +061 140038 038 033 000 03
172230 2709N 09430W 8422 01611 0141 +173 +059 140038 039 033 000 03
172300 2710N 09429W 8425 01610 0144 +170 +058 137038 039 034 000 03
172330 2712N 09427W 8420 01616 0145 +167 +056 136037 038 035 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

plane should be heading back to base now

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/17:05:10Z
B. 26 deg 25 min N
095 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1479 m
D. 32 kt
E. 324 deg 12 nm
F. 079 deg 36 kt
G. 330 deg 18 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C / 1524 m
J. 24 C / 1529 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0504A DON OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 17:14:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX OUTBOUND SFMR WIND 46KTS AT 29/1712Z
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 17:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 17:05:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°25'N 95°23'W (26.4167N 95.3833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 135 miles (217 km) to the ENE (76°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,479m (4,852ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 36kts (From between the ENE and E at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:14:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum SFMR Estimated Surface Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the quadrant at 17:12Z on the 29th day of the month

[Dave]

336
URNT15 KNHC 291733
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 47 20110729
172400 2713N 09425W 8423 01613 0146 +168 +054 138037 038 033 000 00
172430 2715N 09424W 8431 01606 0149 +168 +052 142037 038 034 000 03
172500 2716N 09422W 8423 01620 0153 +164 +049 144038 039 036 001 03
172530 2718N 09421W 8420 01622 0151 +172 +047 141040 041 032 000 03
172600 2719N 09419W 8423 01621 0153 +170 +047 143039 039 031 000 03
172630 2721N 09417W 8421 01624 0155 +166 +050 144038 039 030 000 03
172700 2722N 09416W 8423 01621 0154 +170 +053 139037 038 030 000 03
172730 2724N 09414W 8420 01624 0155 +170 +055 143036 038 030 000 00
172800 2725N 09413W 8422 01624 0154 +171 +057 142035 035 029 000 03
172830 2727N 09411W 8421 01626 0157 +169 +059 143035 035 027 000 03
172900 2728N 09409W 8425 01624 0158 +169 +060 142035 036 027 000 03
172930 2729N 09408W 8423 01624 0163 +160 +061 145037 037 029 000 03
173000 2731N 09406W 8422 01626 0163 +163 +060 146035 036 028 000 00
173030 2732N 09405W 8422 01626 0164 +163 +059 144036 037 030 002 03
173100 2734N 09403W 8422 01630 0155 +179 +059 143038 039 029 000 03
173130 2735N 09401W 8422 01630 0157 +179 +059 138035 037 030 000 03
173200 2737N 09400W 8424 01628 0157 +180 +060 139033 033 030 000 03
173230 2738N 09358W 8419 01635 0159 +179 +062 138030 030 027 000 03
173300 2739N 09356W 8356 01683 0148 +170 +063 138030 031 030 000 03
173330 2740N 09354W 8009 02047 0142 +154 +062 143034 034 029 000 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Plane ascending. Thanks to European, Meso and Dave for another successful mission!!!

[Dave]

Plane ascending. Thanks to European, Meso and Dave for another successful mission!!!

Thanks for your work too!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS DON STILL HAS WINDS NEAR
50 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 95.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO MATAGORDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...
WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

[thetruesms]

I was poking around Brian Tang's website (does he still post here?) and found a couple interesting verification graphics for model performance on Don:


Root Mean Square Error for tracks of various models


Model bias for various model tracks


Mean Absolute Error for intensity


Intensity bias

[lebron23]

The core of don is producing 6 inches of rain PER HOUR.