ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bocadude85]

East coast? Fish? Or florida straits into gulf?

Heads out to sea after grazing the SE Bahamas

[shaggy]

12z GFS splits the uprights clearing the east coast and going west of Bermuda so right now until we see some models showing a real threat to the SE coast this appears to be a larger threat for the Islands than anyone else.

[weatherwindow]

luis.....isnt the "rule" 15/50 for the northeastern carib and pr?....anyway, IMHO..IF 91L tracks south of 290deg, i believe, given the potential size of the system, the bvi's, st croix and northeastern pr may be in for a close approach...i am sure everyone will give this one close attention...rich

[lebron23]

So the high wont push this into the gulf?

[SouthFLTropics]

Personally I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable here in FLA if the models were pointing right at us right now. At 160+ hours we know they will change and trend in different directions. When the target is painted on you at such a long distance I'd feel safe...On the other hand, with it showing us in the clear at such a long distance...Makes me a bit nervous!

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

Personally I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable here in FLA if the models were pointing right at us right now. At 160+ hours we know they will change and trend in different directions. When the target is painted on you at such a long distance I'd feel safe...On the other hand, with it showing us in the clear at such a long distance...Makes me a bit nervous!

SFT

[shaggy]

So the high wont push this into the gulf?

Not according to the GFS. The GFS carries this thing a few hundred miles east of the US east coast so it would take a monumnetal shift in the models to get this one into the Gulf. Of course these runs are pre-formation and could change quite a bit once an actual center is being ingested by the models.

[KWT]

GFS and the models in general nearly all go through the Ne Caribbean and then out towards the sea after maybe a brief flirt with the Bahamas.

Far too early for us to be too sure of this set-up however strongly the models agree...

Whilst a totally different kettle of fish, 90L was meant to go and recurve east of the Bahamas on some models...its making landfall in S.Texas/Mexico...

[KWT]

Yeah clearly we have a LLC convection should increase once again over the next few hours. Depending on how much convection can persist over night and through the day tomorrow... we could see a TD by 5pm tomorrow or 11

What concerns me is whilst the circulation is broad for now, once it does tighten up it'll explode, its got good conditions aloft.

Enough present with this system to suggest the E.Caribbean keep a very close eye on it...I find it VERY likely that it'll come north up through the Caribbean...I don't see it going north of the islands at the moment, obviously not impossible though.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS splits the uprights clearing the east coast and going west of Bermuda so right now until we see some models showing a real threat to the SE coast this appears to be a larger threat for the Islands than anyone else.

Its to early to make that call. While the GFS has been consistant on Bahamas/recurve for a couple runs now, it has been off its game. I would say that this far out, this could impact anyone from texas to the east coast. Not probable but sure possible.

[shaggy]

12z GFS splits the uprights clearing the east coast and going west of Bermuda so right now until we see some models showing a real threat to the SE coast this appears to be a larger threat for the Islands than anyone else.

Its to early to make that call. While the GFS has been consistant on Bahamas/recurve for a couple runs now, it has been off its game. I would say that this far out, this could impact anyone from texas to the east coast. Not probable but sure possible.

Was just noting that right now there is NO model support for this to go into the GOM .Thats why I said "until some models showing a real threat to the SE coast this appears to be a larger threat for the islands than anyone else".......This implies that if the models do in fact start showing a bigger threat to the SE coast then thats a game changer. Earl was a classic example of this last year on how the models had to constantly shift westward with him.

[Evil Jeremy]

91L is developing some really healthy inflow. There is no reason for this not to become a TC IMO. I say 40% from NHC at 2, but personally I think 50%

[Florida1118]

91L is developing some really healthy inflow. There is no reason for this not to become a TC IMO. I say 40% from NHC at 2, but personally I think 50%

I think they go 60-70%, in 48hrs I dont think this will still be 91L...

[KWT]

Yeah, the size of the system is probably a slight negative for now but typically these sorts of systems go on to become major hurricanes...

[SouthDadeFish]

I find it weird to see such a vigorous LLC without any convection overhead. I'm growing more and more concerned about this thing once it develops. Very impressive tropical wave.

[KWT]

12z GFS splits the uprights clearing the east coast and going west of Bermuda so right now until we see some models showing a real threat to the SE coast this appears to be a larger threat for the Islands than anyone else.

Its to early to make that call. While the GFS has been consistant on Bahamas/recurve for a couple runs now, it has been off its game. I would say that this far out, this could impact anyone from texas to the east coast. Not probable but sure possible.

to be fair pretty much all of the models do suggest some sort of recurve occuring, I think it'll be a clsoe call for at least the Bahamas and I think, like Earl last year, the east coast may have to watch...

[Ivanhater]

I've been away less than a day and we have a potential major threat on our hands...oh boy

[theweatherwatch]

Yeah clearly we have a LLC convection should increase once again over the next few hours. Depending on how much convection can persist over night and through the day tomorrow... we could see a TD by 5pm tomorrow or 11

What concerns me is whilst the circulation is broad for now, once it does tighten up it'll explode, its got good conditions aloft.

Enough present with this system to suggest the E.Caribbean keep a very close eye on it...I find it VERY likely that it'll come north up through the Caribbean...I don't see it going north of the islands at the moment, obviously not impossible though.

the LLC is tiny compared to the overall size of the wave.

[cycloneye]

Twitter from Joe Bastardi

Joe Bastardi
Since Don has come up short, System in central Atlantic should be seasons 1st hurricane. Problem for PR next week (windwards before)

[KWT]

Yeah, the GFDL is pretty severe, and its actually IMO a fairly reasonable suggestion as well. Should lift out at NW somewhere between 60-65W looking at the models, HWRF is really the only model other then the ECM (which messes up its development of the system IMO) to miss the islands...