ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Here is Accuweather's take on the future of 91L.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... n-bull.asp

[KWT]

Yep, I think what is more concerning is the threat to the NE Caribbean, I think there is a real threat of a strengthening 2/3 through that region, and given the conditions aloft, I could well see a top end 3/4 as a peak strength.

[theweatherwatch]

Here is Accuweather's take on the future of 91L.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... n-bull.asp

I know this is a little off topic but can we post links to our own blogs with our thoughts about systems or do links have to be from well respect professional mets? If so I am planning on doing a full write up later this afternoon about 91L that I will post a link to when I am done.

[KWT]

I think whilst I'd have raised it to 40%, right now I'm not sure its going to organise too rapidly given its size...

As Frank said, its no more organised then it was earlier today, the LLC is just more obvious now because the convection decayed...

[shaggy]

Yep, I think what is more concerning is the threat to the NE Caribbean, I think there is a real threat of a strengthening 2/3 through that region, and given the conditions aloft, I could well see a top end 3/4 as a peak strength.

Yeah the islands are staring at one of their biggest threats in a few years. While convection is lacking at the moment the organization and tightening up seems to be improving. I think at this point with most models showing some sort of hurricane in the NE islands if I lived there I would be going over my hurricane plan.

[cheezyWXguy]

Im beginning to think the NHC is going to raise development chances at the next TWO. Someone just mentioned not too long ago about such a well formed LLC with an absence of deep convection. Well as of the latest frame, a new burst has just formed over the direct center. It is small now, since it just popped up, but already has red on IR imagery. If this burst holds up and continues to expand, we may very well see a further increase in organization.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater
42W, S of 10N

[Ivanhater]

I think whilst I'd have raised it to 40%, right now I'm not sure its going to organise too rapidly given its size...

As Frank said, its no more organised then it was earlier today, the LLC is just more obvious now because the convection decayed...

All that means is a greater threat to the U.S mainland down the road with it staying weaker in the short term. I think we are all aware this is going to develop imo. Also, the Euro ensemble does not steer us wrong most of the time and there are many hints that more ridging is down the pike.

[theweatherwatch]

I think whilst I'd have raised it to 40%, right now I'm not sure its going to organise too rapidly given its size...

As Frank said, its no more organised then it was earlier today, the LLC is just more obvious now because the convection decayed...

lol The LLC I see popped out of no where... A Completely Connectionless area turned into a LLC right before my eyes... Maybe there are several LLCs in the wave but the one I am tracking just developed an hour or so ago.

[Aric Dunn]

I find it weird to see such a vigorous LLC without any convection overhead. I'm growing more and more concerned about this thing once it develops. Very impressive tropical wave.

Its a bit unusual, maybe some dry air is wafting around this system, its such a large circulation thats pretty reasonable...

Still the patttern of the system suggests once it pulls together it could blow up...not sure it's going to be too rapid to start with, it reminds me of a WPAC system...

Once it strengthens into a TS, expect it to start getting a motion close to NW...till then I think broadly WNW after its seperated from the ITCZ.

The convection was present all day yesterday and last night.. the LLC developed then and when it collapsed we could see the LLC .

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro through 72 is on the weak side heading west

[KWT]

All that means is a greater threat to the U.S mainland down the road with it staying weaker in the short term. I think we are all aware this is going to develop imo. Also, the Euro ensemble does not steer us wrong most of the time and there are many hints that more ridging is down the pike.

Yeah thats the fear, my biggest fear for now though is a track like Hugo's, its too far south IMO for there to be much chance of it missing the islands...I suspect a track close to Earl's, but further west is probable...which is probably bad news for the east coast if that comes off...

ECM does very little with this ssytem out to 48hrs, keeps it elongated mush and weakens the whole lot...though I think the ECM probably has lot the plot with this one as it seperates the vort and tries to develop two areas...which I don't think is likely...

[theweatherwatch]

Aric could you post a sat. image of where the LLC your tracking is? The one I am tracking just developed from a completely connectionless area.

[shaggy]

12z Euro through 72 is on the weak side heading west

With such good conditions in front of this system why is the euro keeping it weak?

[KWT]

The convection was present all day yesterday and last night.. the LLC developed then and when it collapsed we could see the LLC .

Looks to me like the system has several little circulations along the elongated broader circulation...I see at least two circulations turning with this one.

Does increase the threat down the line...

[KWT]

Because it splits the energy between two different areas, which IMO is wrong, and its something I've seen models do before.#

That being said, the circulation is very elongated so its not impossible that another area ppinches off and competes...see it all the time with the SW Caribbean systems from the Monsoonal trough, this appears to be behaving in a similar way...

To bne honest, thats probably not good news for the US IF it does stay weaker for longer...

[cheezyWXguy]

Aric could you post a sat. image of where the LLC your tracking is? The one I am tracking just developed from a completely connectionless area.

I see what you're talking about, thats the center Im following as well. That has actually been there the whole day, its just the sun angle in the previous hours has made it difficult to see low level clouds, until just recently. Notice how throughout the whole image, no low level clouds can be seen, only deeper convection.

[Aric Dunn]

The convection was present all day yesterday and last night.. the LLC developed then and when it collapsed we could see the LLC .

Looks to me like the system has several little circulations along the elongated broader circulation...I see at least two circulations turning with this one.

Does increase the threat down the line...

yes. there was such a large circulation yesterday and several pockets of deep convection we had several swirls rotating around a mean center.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 96 hours...getting stronger, deep in the Caribbean



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

Aric could you post a sat. image of where the LLC your tracking is? The one I am tracking just developed from a completely connectionless area.

I see what you're talking about, thats the center Im following as well. That has actually been there the whole day, its just the sun angle in the previous hours has made it difficult to see low level clouds, until just recently. Notice how throughout the whole image, no low level clouds can be seen, only deeper convection.

yeah that swirl was just lacking the clouds with it and the sun angle played a role as well.

[KWT]

From the sounds of things...12z GFDL is MUCH weaker and close to the ECM...