ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has hurricane close to northern Leewards,but going away without making landfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[shaggy]

From the sounds of things...12z GFDL is MUCH weaker and close to the ECM...

This would allow for a more westward option for the system but at what point would it curve north if it does or would it be a caribbean cruiser at that point. Certainly some model spread showing up which is to be expected this far out.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian 180 hours...trough is lifting out with ridging building in

[HURAKAN]

very close look into 91L

[KWT]

I think the HWRF is too far north with this system, I think its going to be a fair bit south of where that model thinks its going...

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 120 hours....Caribbean cruiser

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[KWT]

Ivanhater, from experience thats a recurver there, there is a pathetic ridge trying to move in but the next upper trough is already deepening and developing, all that ridge will do is prevent total recurve till the next upper trough comes along...very close to Earl actually in terms of the modelled set-up...

Think its a moot point anyway myself...even though the 12z CMc is the solution that I'd go for, I wouldn't be surprised if the models have to shift southwards.

[wxman57]

06z GFS smacks PR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126s.gif

If I'm correct. Would that not put a cat 2 or so in the Hebert Box? Just an observation.

Note that the Hebert Box theory only states that most tropical cyclones that eventually hit Florida from the east passed through the Hebert Box. However, the reverse is not true. That is, it does NOT state that if a storm moves through the Hebert Box that it's likely to hit Florida.

In this case, it's not looking like the ridge to the north will be strong enough to push it to the U.S.

[Steve H.]

Yeah its down the road yet, but don't see any strong troughing in the east. Getting into the heart of summer up north.



THE GEFS MEAN IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE POLAR JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DAYS 6/7 THU/FRI. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE FORECAST
INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BY THEN...BUT OVERALL ITS HOLDING
ONTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LATITUDE RIDGING UNDERNEATH OVER THE
LOWER 48 THAN THE GEFS SEEMS A BETTER BET CONSIDERING AMBIENT
RIDGE STRENGTH. WE SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON TO ADJUST HPC
CONTINUITY MUCH FOR DAYS 4-7 TUE-FRI AFTER CONSIDERATION OF LATEST
12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

[KWT]

Very cool image, you can clearly see the elongated LLC there, will be interesting to see whether it tries to develop some more convection soon, it kinda needs it to get more consolidated, its on the broad side for now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is a classic western Pacific set-up...Very large, broad tropical waves. But once they get going, they become very strong typhoons (hurricanes).

[theweatherwatch]

Aric could you post a sat. image of where the LLC your tracking is? The one I am tracking just developed from a completely connectionless area.

I see what you're talking about, thats the center Im following as well. That has actually been there the whole day, its just the sun angle in the previous hours has made it difficult to see low level clouds, until just recently. Notice how throughout the whole image, no low level clouds can be seen, only deeper convection.

yeah that swirl was just lacking the clouds with it and the sun angle played a role as well.

So Aric is that the same LLC your looking at?

[KWT]

144hrs weakens the low again and heads deep into the Caribbean, probably heading towards central America on this run....but we'll see...

Note, the leftovers seeem to be strengthening by 144hrs over the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 91, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 416W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[sunnyday]

Recurves are so boring. Over and over again, that happened last year. I read an article recently stating reasons why the storms would not recurve so much this year. Looks like the article was wrong....

[MississippiWx]

For the possible trof to recurve 91L fully, it's going to have to persist longer than the other recent ones have done. Don was supposed to recurve as well, but the trof lifted out to the north too quickly. This is going to be a similar setup. This wave is much farther south than Don was, so it's going to come down to timing/strength of both trof and possible cyclone. This is far from any sort of guaranteed recurve.

[Texas Snowman]

Here is Accuweather's take on the future of 91L.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... n-bull.asp

Interesting that they show it tracking south of Puerto Rico...

[KWT]

12z ECM does nearly nothing with this system, strengthens it a little but then weakens it again in the Caribbean, like a slightly stronger version of pre-Don FWIW...

Anyway decent little low pressure with this system and it does indeed look like a WPAC system to me!

Just wondering if we were all a little bullish in what we thought of its chances

[theweatherwatch]

Recurves are so boring. Over and over again, that happened last year. I read an article recently stating reasons why the storms would not recurve so much this year. Looks like the article was wrong....

This one still may not recurve... Even if it does there is still a very good chance the Islands will get hit with future Emily...

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP intensifies to Tropical Storm Emily in 24 hours. IMO,I dont think it will be that fast,but who knows.

Code: Select all

353
WHXX01 KWBC 291836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110729 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110729  1800   110730  0600   110730  1800   110731  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.5N  41.6W   10.4N  43.9W   11.4N  46.6W   12.3N  49.3W
BAMD     9.5N  41.6W   10.3N  43.8W   11.3N  46.1W   12.1N  48.4W
BAMM     9.5N  41.6W   10.4N  43.7W   11.3N  45.9W   12.1N  48.1W
LBAR     9.5N  41.6W   10.4N  43.7W   11.7N  46.4W   12.9N  48.9W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110731  1800   110801  1800   110802  1800   110803  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  51.8W   14.1N  56.6W   15.6N  61.5W   17.2N  66.4W
BAMD    12.9N  50.7W   14.0N  55.0W   15.4N  58.8W   17.8N  62.7W
BAMM    12.7N  50.2W   13.6N  54.5W   15.3N  59.2W   17.6N  63.8W
LBAR    14.2N  51.6W   15.9N  56.2W   18.4N  59.7W   17.1N  64.3W
SHIP        50KTS          64KTS          73KTS          71KTS
DSHP        50KTS          64KTS          73KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.5N LONCUR =  41.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =   8.8N LONM12 =  39.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =   8.2N LONM24 =  37.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM