ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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JtSmarts
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Re: Re:

#261 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:37 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
KWT wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
All that means is a greater threat to the U.S mainland down the road with it staying weaker in the short term. I think we are all aware this is going to develop imo. Also, the Euro ensemble does not steer us wrong most of the time and there are many hints that more ridging is down the pike.


Yeah thats the fear, my biggest fear for now though is a track like Hugo's, its too far south IMO for there to be much chance of it missing the islands...I suspect a track close to Earl's, but further west is probable...which is probably bad news for the east coast if that comes off...



Interesting you bought this up. The location where 91L is currently is about where Hugo was born as well in '89. Of course, we all know the trrack of Hugo and what a monster it became. Like you KWT, I think the Hugo-like track would be the worst case scenario for the U.S. Mainland for sure. I definitely do not want to look far ahead. It's far too early to speculate for the U.S. Mainland, but the folks in the Leeward Islands, The U.S. & British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico really need to focus on preparing potentially for the potential



Please no Hugo like tracks, :eek: unless Emily is a weak tropical storm that can bring some needed rain. :D
Last edited by JtSmarts on Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#262 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:38 pm

YESTERDAY:

Image

TODAY:

Image
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Re:

#263 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Anyone else notice how the circulation has completely disrupted the ITCZ and altered the flow all the way down to 0N lol... its pretty crazy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html


Yep its pretty impressive, i'm also having a hard time seeing reasons for this not to develop, its going to be a slow process though...IMO probably won't form till Sunday...

Small risk that it really struggles to ever get going due to competing vorticies...its not common but I've seen it happen before and really throw the models a wobbler...sometimes with such a broad circulation too good conditions sometimes enourages messy situations.

PS: Yep two circulations are present right next to each other, western one is stronger for now though...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#264 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:42 pm

Not discounting the EURO again as I did with Don....this is low lat system...got to be a deep trof to pull this up...plus it aint in any hurry right now....need to see tonights EURO run...I will stay up with Ivan.... :lol:
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Re: Re:

#265 Postby shaggy » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:44 pm

KWT wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Anyone else notice how the circulation has completely disrupted the ITCZ and altered the flow all the way down to 0N lol... its pretty crazy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html


Yep its pretty impressive, i'm also having a hard time seeing reasons for this not to develop, its going to be a slow process though...IMO probably won't form till Sunday...

Small risk that it really struggles to ever get going due to competing vorticies...its not common but I've seen it happen before and really throw the models a wobbler...sometimes with such a broad circulation too good conditions sometimes enourages messy situations.



I think the models that are seeing less development may be off a bit. I think we are seeing better development today without many storms but the structure is clearly improving. A nice sustained flareup overnight and we could see this one go quickly with the conditions it has out front.

I am also watching with biased eyes as I have made a gutsy call of a SE landfall on another forum based on North Carolina tornado data that I researched earlier this summer.


It seems some G-IV missions on gonna be flown soon also?
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#266 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:52 pm

Image

close up to the center, near 10ºN and in the right of the image
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#267 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:53 pm

It had more convection yesterday, but today, it just has that "look" so imo it is getting better organized in some way.
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Re: Re:

#268 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:53 pm

shaggy wrote:
KWT wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Anyone else notice how the circulation has completely disrupted the ITCZ and altered the flow all the way down to 0N lol... its pretty crazy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html


Yep its pretty impressive, i'm also having a hard time seeing reasons for this not to develop, its going to be a slow process though...IMO probably won't form till Sunday...

Small risk that it really struggles to ever get going due to competing vorticies...its not common but I've seen it happen before and really throw the models a wobbler...sometimes with such a broad circulation too good conditions sometimes enourages messy situations.



I think the models that are seeing less development may be off a bit. I think we are seeing better development today without many storms but the structure is clearly improving. A nice sustained flareup overnight and we could see this one go quickly with the conditions it has out front.

I am also watching with biased eyes as I have made a gutsy call of a SE landfall on another forum based on North Carolina tornado data that I researched earlier this summer.


It seems some G-IV missions on gonna be flown soon also?


All we need is some decent convection and this is a TD. Im still sticking with late tomorrow for upgrade because it is moving into a much more favorable environment too support organized convection. the multiple vorts will not be a problem if enough convection build. IT will consolidate very quick.
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#269 Postby Frank2 » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:54 pm

There are many differing opinions here but per wxman57's quote it does seem the most likely scenario will be a recurve because of the well-advertised trough that is forceast to deepen off the EC in the next 3-5 days...

True, 91L could remain weak and move westward, but looking at it this afternoon it does seem to be evolving at an average rate, so possible in 2 or 3 days it will be at TD status and begin to feel the weakness to it's north...

Frank
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#270 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:57 pm

hmmm... 12z Euro shifted from recurve to carrib runner..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#271 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:58 pm

The Heat Content increases after 50W.

Image

The Anomalies are toasty.

Image
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#272 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:58 pm

The convection should really begin to explode. the conditions appear favorable..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#273 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:10 pm

Here is another graphic of the 18z tracks.Notice that the TVCN NHC model,curves to the NNW north of the islands.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#274 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:25 pm

Glad to see that young Ivan has woke up & smelt the EURO (ha)...Rock, still disappointed in you.
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Re:

#275 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:33 pm

Frank2 wrote:There are many differing opinions here but per wxman57's quote it does seem the most likely scenario will be a recurve because of the well-advertised trough that is forceast to deepen off the EC in the next 3-5 days...


I do agree BUT...I think its going to slam right through the islands first...and I'd not be the least bit surprised if the models peg that trough back a little as well, they have a habit of being a little overzealous, esp considering its still July...hardly late September...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#276 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:35 pm

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Re:

#277 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The convection should really begin to explode. the conditions appear favorable..




I agree, should begin to see a ramp up in convection.

The 12z ECMWF looks reasonable if it struggles to consolidate into a stacked single LLC, if not it gains latitude and becomes a threat to the NE Islands and turns into the SW periphery of the ridge sooner.

I don't see this making it to the western Carib. with a trough in the east.
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Re:

#278 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:45 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Getting hard to believe 91L won't develop now. I would kinda like to see 91L stay shallow and get into the Caribbean....I think I can honestly say 2011 is much different than 2005 but I believe the storms were recurving around this time then as well (F or H storm?).


Being a large system,it takes time to consolidate,but make no mistake,when it starts to develop it will be a formidable cyclone. I wont speculate on how far it will get in peak intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#279 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:45 pm

For those thinking this is a pretty certain recurve, if it develops, should think again. As mentioned earlier today the gfs was forecasting Don to hit the upper Texas coast, and that was almost in the short range time frame. Euro said deep south Texas and look where Don is going. The Gfs every season turns storms north way to early because of a "strong" trough off the east coast. Euro is showing ridging building in pretty stoutly in 6-7 days. So which would you pick. And of course the longer it takes to develop the further west it is going to go. It could very well take a Don type track. Of course this is long range just something to keep in the back of your mind going into next week.
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Re:

#280 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The convection should really begin to explode. the conditions appear favorable..

It certainly appears to be trying, another very small but tall tower has popped near the center. This may or may not fizzle like the last, but it certainly makes it seem like its only a matter of time before this thing gets going.
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