ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 96.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Sanibel]

Is that an eye hole trying to form in the convection? (On AVN IR Loop)

[Category 5]

Is that an eye hole trying to form in the convection? (On AVN IR Loop)

.....uhhh no.

[Sanibel]

Is that an eye hole trying to form in the convection? (On AVN IR Loop)

.....uhhh no.

Did you bother to look at the loop? There's a hole tracking on AVN IR.

[StormClouds63]

I mentioned the other night that Kenedy county was a landfall possibility ... maybe the ranchers will get some beneficial rain. Landfall location is the only comparison w/Bret of 1999.

[wxman57]

Anyone have any idea what the circulation is to the SW of the official center? It is showing up quite well to on radar, and it looks better than the NHC center from the last recon pass. It had a special marine warning on it a little while ago.

That could be the mid-level center displaced south-southwest of the surface center. Don isn't stacked well vertically. It would make sense that with NNE wind shear that the mid-level rotation would be displaced SSW of the surface center. Or it could be an illusion...

[wxman57]

Is that an eye hole trying to form in the convection? (On AVN IR Loop)

No, I don't see anything that would be an eye. Recon didn't indicate an eyewall forming, either. Just an optical illusion. Do you have a link to the loop you're talking about?

[Category 5]

Is that an eye hole trying to form in the convection? (On AVN IR Loop)

.....uhhh no.

Did you bother to look at the loop? There's a hole tracking on AVN IR.

Had the loop up all day, I see a blob that will be inland in a few hours. It's not very organized, it's trying but it's going to run out of time.

[Sanibel]

Convection behavior on AVN IR is showing potential bursting.

[Category 5]

It's trying.

Both the MLC and LLC are evident on radar (the MLC is much less subtle), good convection by the MLC. Maybe it's working its way down to the surface?

[JonathanBelles]

Anyone have any idea what the circulation is to the SW of the official center? It is showing up quite well to on radar, and it looks better than the NHC center from the last recon pass. It had a special marine warning on it a little while ago.

That could be the mid-level center displaced south-southwest of the surface center. Don isn't stacked well vertically. It would make sense that with NNE wind shear that the mid-level rotation would be displaced SSW of the surface center. Or it could be an illusion...

Should we be looking for a possible relocation. Lightning there has been going nuts for the last few hours, and recon had trouble closing off the circulation with any great winds. It seems to me like this little meso low is wrapping up.

[BigA]

It definitely looks like the mid-level center is taking over-and maybe going down to the surface. In any case, it will be onshore shortly near the border.

The wind at South Padre is from the ENE, which might indicate that the surface circulation isn't to the north, but is rather the mid-level on radar that has made it to the surface. I'm not sure. It could just be a transient mesoscale feature. In any event, Don looks to be increasing it's rain coverage area, which is great for South TExas.

[Sanibel]

Some kind of tracking pseudo eye slot:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[KWT]

Whatever is the case, its growing quite alot as it heads towards land, thats good news for S.Twecas at least.

[Dave]

Mission 6 - AF 306 into TS Don

266
URNT15 KNHC 292137
AF306 0604A DON HDOB 02 20110729
212730 2940N 09117W 3925 07791 0474 -165 -191 120015 016 /// /// 03
212800 2939N 09120W 3926 07788 0473 -165 -201 127018 019 /// /// 03
212830 2938N 09123W 3925 07791 0474 -162 -198 130014 016 /// /// 03
212900 2937N 09126W 3927 07786 0474 -165 -209 133015 016 /// /// 03
212930 2936N 09129W 3925 07794 0474 -165 -222 134014 014 /// /// 03
213000 2935N 09132W 3926 07788 0474 -161 -221 124015 016 /// /// 03
213030 2935N 09135W 3926 07789 0473 -155 -243 121013 014 /// /// 03
213100 2934N 09138W 3926 07786 0473 -156 -260 115014 015 /// /// 03
213130 2933N 09141W 3927 07786 0473 -157 -214 112015 015 /// /// 03
213200 2932N 09144W 3927 07786 0473 -157 -226 106015 016 /// /// 03
213230 2931N 09147W 3925 07792 0473 -157 -230 098014 014 /// /// 03
213300 2930N 09150W 3926 07787 0472 -161 -207 095015 015 /// /// 03
213330 2929N 09153W 3927 07785 0472 -162 -198 100014 015 /// /// 03
213400 2928N 09156W 3927 07785 0471 -162 -208 095012 013 /// /// 03
213430 2927N 09159W 3924 07789 0471 -160 -215 103015 016 /// /// 03
213500 2926N 09202W 3927 07784 0470 -158 -213 103018 018 /// /// 03
213530 2925N 09205W 3926 07789 0472 -159 -219 102014 015 /// /// 03
213600 2924N 09208W 3926 07786 0471 -157 -190 098010 011 /// /// 03
213630 2923N 09211W 3926 07785 0471 -156 -186 120007 008 /// /// 03
213700 2922N 09214W 3926 07786 0471 -160 -193 130010 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[somethingfunny]

The LLC is getting shredded by shear and dry air. On radar it's quite evident that the MLC is working down the surface and becoming dominant.

With this latest center relocation we should have our final landfall on North Padre Island into Kenedy County. Corpus Christi may not see any rain out of this at all.....

[Dave]

645
URNT15 KNHC 292147
AF306 0604A DON HDOB 03 20110729
213730 2921N 09216W 3925 07790 0473 -159 -185 127009 009 /// /// 03
213800 2921N 09219W 3926 07789 0473 -156 -216 116008 008 /// /// 03
213830 2920N 09222W 3926 07789 0472 -155 -217 125008 009 /// /// 03
213900 2919N 09225W 3926 07786 0472 -159 -198 120009 009 /// /// 03
213930 2918N 09228W 3926 07787 0472 -160 -194 111010 010 /// /// 03
214000 2917N 09231W 3926 07786 0471 -160 -201 118013 013 /// /// 03
214030 2916N 09234W 3926 07786 0471 -160 -191 099013 013 /// /// 03
214100 2915N 09237W 3925 07787 0469 -160 -184 094014 015 /// /// 03
214130 2914N 09240W 3927 07781 0468 -160 -197 099014 014 /// /// 03
214200 2913N 09243W 3927 07781 0468 -160 -201 103013 013 /// /// 03
214230 2912N 09246W 3926 07784 0468 -160 -195 093014 014 /// /// 03
214300 2911N 09249W 3926 07782 0467 -160 -194 100016 016 /// /// 03
214330 2910N 09252W 3926 07784 0468 -160 -186 111017 017 /// /// 03
214400 2909N 09255W 3926 07782 0468 -158 -198 108017 017 /// /// 03
214430 2908N 09258W 3926 07785 0469 -158 -186 112016 017 /// /// 03
214500 2907N 09301W 3925 07788 0469 -156 -182 105017 018 /// /// 03
214530 2906N 09304W 3926 07785 0468 -159 -185 093016 017 /// /// 03
214600 2905N 09307W 3926 07781 0467 -155 -175 096013 015 /// /// 03
214630 2904N 09310W 3926 07781 0466 -156 -175 096015 015 /// /// 03
214700 2903N 09313W 3926 07781 0466 -159 -174 092014 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

708
URNT15 KNHC 292157
AF306 0604A DON HDOB 04 20110729
214730 2902N 09316W 3926 07781 0465 -157 -180 085014 015 /// /// 03
214800 2901N 09319W 3926 07775 0461 -155 -180 088014 015 /// /// 03
214830 2900N 09322W 3926 07773 0458 -155 -180 095014 015 /// /// 03
214900 2859N 09325W 3926 07773 0458 -155 -179 072010 013 /// /// 03
214930 2858N 09328W 3927 07769 0457 -155 -176 064008 010 /// /// 03
215000 2857N 09331W 3925 07773 0456 -160 -177 081011 012 /// /// 03
215030 2856N 09334W 3926 07773 0457 -160 -177 102013 014 /// /// 03
215100 2855N 09337W 3926 07773 0457 -160 -182 107015 016 /// /// 03
215130 2855N 09340W 3926 07774 0458 -158 -181 129015 017 /// /// 03
215200 2854N 09342W 3926 07773 0459 -159 -183 140019 020 /// /// 03
215230 2853N 09345W 4065 07522 0451 -149 -172 143014 016 /// /// 03
215300 2852N 09348W 4210 07256 0434 -130 -155 145010 011 /// /// 03
215330 2851N 09351W 4367 06976 0418 -110 -152 163009 010 /// /// 03
215400 2850N 09354W 4532 06690 0399 -094 -129 164013 013 /// /// 03
215430 2849N 09356W 4697 06414 0383 -078 -113 148016 018 /// /// 03
215500 2848N 09359W 4867 06137 0366 -061 -098 143020 022 /// /// 03
215530 2847N 09402W 5041 05862 0349 -045 -091 143023 024 /// /// 03
215600 2846N 09404W 5221 05585 0331 -029 -072 135023 024 /// /// 03
215630 2845N 09407W 5407 05308 0316 -017 -059 137018 020 /// /// 03
215700 2845N 09410W 5589 05045 0139 -004 -045 130017 017 /// /// 03
$$
;

descending to operational altitude

[Raininfyr]

Looks like "something" is making landfall right there at the border.