ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SFLcane]

Other then poseing a threat to NE Caribbean based on the pattern progged by some the models this disturbance has a small chance at making a run at the southeast. Fairly large system which looks to be gradually becoming better organized this evening.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Good, the NHC upped this to 50%.

[Florida1118]

Its only the con vection that is stopping the NHC from going to code red, and the fact the NHC believes conditions are favourable for development, that 50% is only going to increase.

Personally, I can't wait for recon again, hopefully it can become a hurricane and miss land, but the pattern at the moment is not great for the NE Caribbean, in fact its almost a carbon copy of what it was last year.

Still things can change. I think it might shift a touch south yet even if the models have the right general idea.

Haha I get it, Con-vection...cause it doesnt have alot so its a con...gotta love puns.

[TwisterFanatic]

50% is a good call.

[Hylian Auree]

Yeah, convection isn't too great, so 50% is good, albeit a bit conservative. Imo, the closer it gets to the islands, the less conservative the NHC needs to be. If this ramps up soon, the Carib should be prepared asap.

[StormClouds63]

Unless system completely falls apart or takes an immediate northern track, a 125+ page thread is upcoming. This system should provide the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, perhaps the first major storm as well ... hopefully misses the islands and Bahamas.

[WxEnthus]

Please no Hugo like tracks, unless Emily is a weak tropical storm that can bring some needed rain.

I remember Hugo, I was young at the time but it left quite an impression on our area (Appalachian Mnts). I know our experience with Hugo wasn't even comparable to those closer to the coast but it's surprising how much damage Hugo did and what a mess he made this far inland. People around here still use it as a time reference, i.e. "Well, let's see, that was before Hugo...".

[KWT]

Unless system completely falls apart or takes an immediate northern track, a 125+ page thread is upcoming. This system should provide the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, perhaps the first major storm as well ... hopefully misses the islands and Bahamas.

50% sounds fine, though in truth I feel development chances are probably actually higher between the 24-48hrs period.

As for a 125+ thread, if it takes the GFS track you could eaasily double that...

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone have any analog storms for this time of year and latitude?

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF continues to show a hurricane just NE of the islands.

KWT,GFDL does nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Thanks Cycloneye.

The 18z HWRF is worrying because its got something of a right bias to it, so assuming that track shifts at least a little to the west would put the NE Caribbean islands at real risk.

[TwisterFanatic]

HWRF doesn't look right, starts a NW motion immediately.

[KWT]

Anyone have any analog storms for this time of year and latitude?

Funnily enough a great system at the moment to compare to is...Emily 2005!

Allan went close to where this went as well, as did Dora 1964.

[StormClouds63]

Anyone have any analog storms for this time of year and latitude?

Funnily enough a great system at the moment to compare to is...Emily 2005!

Allan went close to where this went as well, as did Dora 1964.

Hopefully this isn't another Marilyn:

[Annie Oakley]

Now a new yellow circle ha ha also............things heating up.

[bamajammer4eva]

Anyone have any analog storms for this time of year and latitude?

Funnily enough a great system at the moment to compare to is...Emily 2005!

Allan went close to where this went as well, as did Dora 1964.

Here is a graphic of past storms near 91L



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[lebron23]

For some reason i cant see this re curving ...

[cycloneye]

That HWRF run only goes to 126 hours. The question is if after that time,it bends more west with the ridge building or the trough grabs it.

[KWT]

bamajammer4eva, great graphic!

Worrying to see a couple of beasts in there, both Flora and David were horrific storms. Flora was one of the most worst in terms of deaths for the last 50 years.