Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[FireBird]

Hi Luis, thanks for posting Rob's comments and for keeping us up to date.
A weekend of watching and waiting and preparation is in store.

[msbee]

if we haven't done it already, get our hurricane disaster kits ready.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/pr ... _kit.shtml

[cycloneye]

if we haven't done it already, get our hurricane disaster kits ready.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/pr ... _kit.shtml

I am already preparing to not get to the last minute rush.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC025-029-031-063-077-087-119-127-139-292015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0085.110729T1722Z-110729T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
122 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
CANOVANAS
GURABO
JUNCOS
SAN JUAN
TRUJILLO ALTO
CAROLINA
RIO GRANDE
LOIZA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 110 PM AST...TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATE
THAT THE RIO CANAS IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6589 1845 6588 1842 6581 1825 6592
1830 6607 1846 6590

$$

JJA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT
AROUND 45 WEST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND REACH OUR LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES. ANOTHER
AREA THAT WAS AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...INCLUDING THE CAGUAS VALLEY. SEVERAL
FLOODED STREET WERE REPORTED FROM THESE SHOWERS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW
AFFECTING THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO...WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
INTERACT TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE TSRA HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE VICINITY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX AS SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT THESE AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WIND
AT THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY
DETERIORATE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEFORE MENTIONED REACH OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 50 40 30 30
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC025-029-031-063-077-087-119-127-139-292315-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-110729T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
CANOVANAS
GURABO
JUNCOS
SAN JUAN
TRUJILLO ALTO
CAROLINA
RIO GRANDE
LOIZA

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 403 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA. U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THE RIO CANAS IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6589 1845 6588 1842 6581 1825 6592
1830 6607 1846 6590

$$

CASTRO

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[msbee]

50% chance of development now!

[Gustywind]

50% chance of development now!

this thing is heating up again that does not sound good. Something to keep an eye on for sure if this trends continues...

[cycloneye]

Folks,the models in a majority tracks it towards the islands.

[Gustywind]

Folks,the models in a majority tracks it towards the islands.

oh boy

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2011

.UPDATE...
INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION IS HELPING
TO CREATE A MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLIES. ON SATURDAY EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
NEAR 42/43 WEST. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
IS STILL SOME WAY OUT...AND AS USUAL MODELS WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
WITH TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE HOWEVER URGED TO STAY TUNED AND MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY WFO
SAN JUAN AND THE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...BUT DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...
WEATHER AND WINDS FOR THE LONG TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

[jedsshed]

The 30 July 2:00 AM advisory stated there is a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours!
I'm glad I got plenty of water and canned tuna yesterday! This could be bad for the islands in the Northeast Caribbean, so keep your eyes on this one.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It appears that 91L will be a TD later today or tonight.I think preparations should be on order this weekend.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND THEN ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND ENCOUNTERS
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...REGARDING ITS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ULTIMATE TRACK AND WHAT EFFECTS IT MAY HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AS EACH DAY PASSES...AVAILABLE
OBSERVED AND FORECAST DATA CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A THREAT AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE ISLANDS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PUERTO
RICO.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED AND MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND TROPICAL
WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

[cycloneye]

The 30 July 2:00 AM advisory stated there is a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours!
I'm glad I got plenty of water and canned tuna yesterday! This could be bad for the islands in the Northeast Caribbean, so keep your eyes on this one.

Welcome to storm2k and to this thread. I think is a good time this weekend to start preparations to avoid the last minute rush as it looks like this system will be a threat for the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Rob of Crown Weather this morning.

Invest 91-L Over The Central Atlantic Likely To Develop Into Tropical Depression #5/Tropical Storm Emily By Late Today Or Early Sunday & Is A Threat To The Islands Of The Northeastern Caribbean
Rob Lightbown on July 30, 2011, 7:57 am

Tropical Storm Don:
Don is essentially dead over southern Texas this morning. The storm evaporated over southern Texas due to the very dry air across the area due to the extreme drought conditions. I could find little, if any convection on satellite or radar imagery and it is expected that what is left of Don will open up into a trough of low pressure sometime today and unfortunately little additional significant rainfall is expected from Don. This will be the last discussion regarding Don.

Invest 91-L Located 900 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
I think we have our first potential significant tropical cyclone threat of the 20111 Hurricane Season. Invest 91-L, located about 900 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the overnight hours. It does appear looking at data this morning that a fairly well organized surface circulation exists with Invest 91-L and I fully expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 either later today or at the latest during Sunday morning.

My thinking this morning is that this system will track in a general west-northwestward direction and track across the Lesser Antilles somewhere between the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe on Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

As for strengthening over the next 48 to 72 hours, the circulation, while well established is elongated and satellite imagery indicates dry air both to the north and west of Invest 91-L. The HWRF and GFDL models do very little with this system while the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance forecasts strengthening to a hurricane by Monday. My opinion is that the HWRF/GFDL models may be too weak and the SHIPS/LGEM models may be too strong with intensity. So, I would say tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning, then intensification into a tropical storm by Monday morning and a forecast of this to cross the Lesser Antilles as a 65 mph tropical storm Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

After crossing the Lesser Antilles, the global and track model guidance have some differing opinions on where they track future Emily.

The GFS model, which is the most aggressive of the global models, forecasts a landfall in Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and then tracks across the Turks and Caicos islands Thursday afternoon and Thursday night missing the Bahamas just to the east and missing the US Southeast coast due to a large trough of low pressure tracking off of the East coast at that time.

The Canadian model is also pretty aggressive and forecasts a track after the Lesser Antilles that takes it across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then forecasts this storm to miss the Bahamas and the US East coast well to the east due to a large trough of low pressure.

The European model forecasts a track that takes it across the eastern and northern Caribbean and onshore into Hispaniola on Wednesday where it dissipates.

The consensus track guidance like the TVCN and TVCC models forecasts a track that takes this storm across the island of Dominica on Monday night and then west-northwest from there that would take it very close to the coast of southwestern Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning and then inland into the Dominican Republic on Thursday morning.

So, here are my thoughts: The big question after future Emily tracks across the Lesser Antilles will be where will it track. A large trough of low pressure is forecast to track off of the US East Coast by the middle part of next week and will try to pull this system northward and out into the open Atlantic. My problem with this is that models like the GFS model tend to curve storms too quickly out into the open Atlantic. Remember, initially many of the model guidance members forecasted that Don will pull northward and near the Bahamas several days ago and well that didn’t happen. The global models forecast this trough of low pressure to track off of the US East Coast and then lift out by later next week with a ridge of high pressure building back in. This type of synoptic setup may be one where the trough does not pick up future Emily fully and causes the storm to turn back to the west. The forecast for later next week is obviously a long ways off and a lot can happen between now and then.

My main concern right now are the northeastern Caribbean Islands, including the Leeward Islands from Martinique northward to Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Everyone across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for this potential storm this weekend. Do not wait until watches and warnings are posted and become entangled in the last minute rush to buy supplies. This system is forecast to start affecting the islands of the northeastern Caribbean as early as Monday afternoon and potentially could be a moderate to strong tropical storm or even a hurricane.

Finally, the Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos islands are my other concern as this storm may affect you by later next week. Everyone across the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor this system and go over your hurricane disaster supply kits this weekend.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring this system very closely and will keep you all updated.

[msbee]

Discussion by Rob of Crown Weather this morning.

Invest 91-L Over The Central Atlantic Likely To Develop Into Tropical Depression #5/Tropical Storm Emily By Late Today Or Early Sunday & Is A Threat To The Islands Of The Northeastern Caribbean
Rob Lightbown on July 30, 2011, 7:57 am

Tropical Storm Don:
Don is essentially dead over southern Texas this morning. The storm evaporated over southern Texas due to the very dry air across the area due to the extreme drought conditions. I could find little, if any convection on satellite or radar imagery and it is expected that what is left of Don will open up into a trough of low pressure sometime today and unfortunately little additional significant rainfall is expected from Don. This will be the last discussion regarding Don.

Invest 91-L Located 900 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
I think we have our first potential significant tropical cyclone threat of the 20111 Hurricane Season. Invest 91-L, located about 900 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the overnight hours. It does appear looking at data this morning that a fairly well organized surface circulation exists with Invest 91-L and I fully expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 either later today or at the latest during Sunday morning.

My thinking this morning is that this system will track in a general west-northwestward direction and track across the Lesser Antilles somewhere between the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe on Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

As for strengthening over the next 48 to 72 hours, the circulation, while well established is elongated and satellite imagery indicates dry air both to the north and west of Invest 91-L. The HWRF and GFDL models do very little with this system while the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance forecasts strengthening to a hurricane by Monday. My opinion is that the HWRF/GFDL models may be too weak and the SHIPS/LGEM models may be too strong with intensity. So, I would say tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning, then intensification into a tropical storm by Monday morning and a forecast of this to cross the Lesser Antilles as a 65 mph tropical storm Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

After crossing the Lesser Antilles, the global and track model guidance have some differing opinions on where they track future Emily.

The GFS model, which is the most aggressive of the global models, forecasts a landfall in Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and then tracks across the Turks and Caicos islands Thursday afternoon and Thursday night missing the Bahamas just to the east and missing the US Southeast coast due to a large trough of low pressure tracking off of the East coast at that time.

The Canadian model is also pretty aggressive and forecasts a track after the Lesser Antilles that takes it across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then forecasts this storm to miss the Bahamas and the US East coast well to the east due to a large trough of low pressure.

The European model forecasts a track that takes it across the eastern and northern Caribbean and onshore into Hispaniola on Wednesday where it dissipates.

The consensus track guidance like the TVCN and TVCC models forecasts a track that takes this storm across the island of Dominica on Monday night and then west-northwest from there that would take it very close to the coast of southwestern Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning and then inland into the Dominican Republic on Thursday morning.

So, here are my thoughts: The big question after future Emily tracks across the Lesser Antilles will be where will it track. A large trough of low pressure is forecast to track off of the US East Coast by the middle part of next week and will try to pull this system northward and out into the open Atlantic. My problem with this is that models like the GFS model tend to curve storms too quickly out into the open Atlantic. Remember, initially many of the model guidance members forecasted that Don will pull northward and near the Bahamas several days ago and well that didn’t happen. The global models forecast this trough of low pressure to track off of the US East Coast and then lift out by later next week with a ridge of high pressure building back in. This type of synoptic setup may be one where the trough does not pick up future Emily fully and causes the storm to turn back to the west. The forecast for later next week is obviously a long ways off and a lot can happen between now and then.

My main concern right now are the northeastern Caribbean Islands, including the Leeward Islands from Martinique northward to Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Everyone across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for this potential storm this weekend. Do not wait until watches and warnings are posted and become entangled in the last minute rush to buy supplies. This system is forecast to start affecting the islands of the northeastern Caribbean as early as Monday afternoon and potentially could be a moderate to strong tropical storm or even a hurricane.

Finally, the Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos islands are my other concern as this storm may affect you by later next week. Everyone across the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor this system and go over your hurricane disaster supply kits this weekend.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring this system very closely and will keep you all updated.

[Macrocane]

Good morning guys! How are the preparations in your countries? hopefully everything's going to be OK. Here in Central America we've had widespread rains since yesterday and it seems that we will have more heavy rains for the next few days, these are some excerpts from the latest Atlantic TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...ANALYZED
FROM 23N83W TO 12N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE DATA. THE WAVE
IS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED ON THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM
OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
E OF 68W.