WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.6N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.8N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.1N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.4N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 133.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS TOTALLY OBSCURED BY A COLD
DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH. THE INITIAL POSTION IS
BASED ON A 290422Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WARM SEMI-CIRCLE
SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST
SOUTH OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP OUTLINES IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE, VWS WILL RELAX, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH,
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, RESULTING IN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, A BUILDING STR EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
WILL NUDGE TS 11W LEFT OF TRACK. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FANS OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREE SPREAD, ALL FAVORING THE
S-SHAPED TRACK DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT
CONTINUES TO BE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND MAINTAINS A
POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNREALISTIC PULL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z,
292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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