ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS hangs it in the Bahamas for over 2 days.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is there is a stall in the bahamas for like 2 days which indicates ridging temporarily building in so I wouldn't be suprised if this headed west, with something like that in the run I would be very leary anywhere from Key West to Cape Hatteras and possibly the gulf as of now, but as always that could change

[Evil Jeremy]

Here is what I notice when I compare the 12z GFS run from earlier and the new 00z run. Both these frames below showcase the GFS frame for 8/6/11.

12z run, 180 hours out:


00z run, 168 hours out:


The big differences is that in the more recent run, future-Emily is both weaker and further west. While the GFS is not showing a East Coast or Florida hit yet, the trend is always your friend.

[WeatherEmperor]

Never mind.

You already updated the graphic

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, the 7/30 0Z gfs looks alot like the 7/29 18Z run at comparable times.

[Janie2006]

Ok, I'll throw in my two cents. The wave has great potential for eventual development, but the current elongation of the system, its attachment to the ITCZ, and a probable tussle with some dry air ahead of it indicate that development will be slower rather than faster. I'm going with a Sunday afternoon timeframe, and perhaps a bit later than that, for TD status.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

What do you guys think the NHC will do in half an hour? I say they stick with 50%. That seems about right for now. The vorticity is still somewhat elongated and needs to concentrate on a single area.

[Janie2006]

I say they'll be conservative with the estimates (staying at 50%), no particular need to go higher at the moment, IMO.

[lebron23]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[Evil Jeremy]

Code red, 70%

[lebron23]

HWRF fizzles it out

[TwisterFanatic]

70%? Wow

[lebron23]

HWRF and GFDL dont do much with it 00z...Lets see what happens 6-12z

[Janie2006]

Code red, 70%

On the other hand, I could be mistaken.

[Evil Jeremy]

Code red, 70%

On the other hand, I could be mistaken.

It happens. The NHC can be unpredictable at times. They have been very off much more than usual on their TWOs this season.

[somethingfunny]

Looking really good, convection popping near where the center ought to form just as the sun set on the visible loop. I expect a Code Red tonight, maybe not at 8pm but almost certainly at 2am if this trend holds.

I may not be any good at predicting the weather, but at least I can predict the NHC.

[ROCK]

the EURO shifted north....PR in the crosshairs then obliterates it over Hispa.....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[abajan]

GFS hangs it in the Bahamas for over 2 days.

That kind of thing is not unheard of. Check what Hurricane Flora did to Cuba in 1963. Although I'm not in any way suggesting that this will happen to the Bahamas.

[alan1961]

For saying this is only an invest currently, it looks daunting
already

[bamajammer4eva]

It is worth noting that with 00z globals and 06z dynamic models in, TVCN, which the NHC a lot of times follows, is closely inline with the current Extrap or a B-Line for Hispanolia-nothing may matter beyond that.