2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[vbhoutex]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
122 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

TXZ199-200-213-214-227-237-238-202300-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...
LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...
TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...SUGAR LAND...
MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...
ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
122 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE NATURE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. FUNNEL CLOUDS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVER EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY...NEAR CROSBY
...AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY FUNNEL CLOUD HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A WEAK TORNADO.

I've already had a brief shower today, but no funnel clouds that I am aware of.

[jasons2k]

I added .08" to the tally today - hoping for more though...

[vbhoutex]

I added .08" to the tally today - hoping for more though...

Yesterday was a whopping 0.04" for me. Hoping for more too!LOL! Neither radar nor sky is as promising as it was yesterday morning.
edit:high today-100.4f

[jasons2k]

I got .01" today from a dying storm. I could see the white rain curtain just down the street from me, but it just fell apart before I could get anything.

[vbhoutex]

This is today's email, minus the model map, from Jeff Lindner. I don't know if I should call this bad news and good news or bad news and bad news. Time will tell.

Massive heat ridge over the Midwest and NE US will gradually build SW over TX over the next 24-48 hours allowing decreasing rain chances and increasing heat. 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms today will decrease to less than 20% Saturday through next Wednesday as capping develops over the area as the ridge builds back in. Heat index values during the afternoon will average 103-107 across the region, just shy of the heat advisory criteria with afternoon highs back into the 98-102 range.

Extended will feature eyes turning to our ESE to the strong tropical wave (90L) approaching the Windward Islands and any potential for development and track toward the Gulf of Mexico.

90L:

A strong tropical wave is located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands and moving westward at 15-20mph. Wave is clearly noted in TPW imagery and on visible satellite images as a strong buckle in the tropical low level easterly flow. As of this morning the system was declared 90L and model runs and intensity forecasts are being produced on this wave. Strong sub-tropical ridge is found over the middle Atlantic north of 90L and this should keep the system on a general W to WNW track for the next 5 days. Conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for slow development of this system although based on the current possible track forecast land interaction with the higher terrain of Hispaniola would be a large drawback on any possible developments. By the middle to end of next week this feature does appear to reach the SE of E Gulf of Mexico where conditions look to be more favorable for development. Bears close watch.

Meanwhile the seabreeze has come in and is giving the East side of the metro area some good storms from what I see on radar. It has cooled my area from 98f to 91f which is fine with me. I just wish the East side would share with the West side.

[vbhoutex]

Back to the heat today! We've hit 101.7f so far here at the house. Not a drop of rain in sight. Time to water again if I intend to keep any of my yard alive. The tiny little showers once every couple of weeks just don't do it for some reason. Meanwhile, I'm keeping an eye on Invest 90L. Possibly could be a player in our weather later in the week.

Edit 7/24-Add another one to the number(however many it is). High so far today at the house is 101.5f.

[southerngale]

Got some nice storms this afternoon. It's still raining, but winding down. Was very heavy for a little while. Very much needed, but need plenty more! Lots of thunder and lightning, and heavy, sideways rain for a bit. Lost a large branch. It was great!!

And wow... a flood advisory! It was coming down in buckets.

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

TXC245-361-260000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0015.110725T2202Z-110726T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-
502 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
THE CITY OF SOUR LAKE...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NOME...BEAUMONT...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VIDOR...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 501 PM CDT A BAND OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. AROUND 1 INCH
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES IN A FEW SPOTS
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN... MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 9444 3011 9436 3012 9430 3015 9427
3019 9420 3016 9411 3021 9410 3022 9411
3024 9407 3024 9399 3011 9389 2988 9444
2989 9445

$$

JT

[vbhoutex]

We actually had some rain today at the house-0.15". Different story in the Cooperfield and Cypress area of NW Houston. Both my kids described the storm at their houses like a "hurricane". In Copperfield they had nickel sized hail for several minutes and local street flooding. My son lost power during the storm at his house in Cypress. Don't know how much rain they had because neither have gauges(I tried to bring them up right).

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea has slowed over the past 24 hours and has developed scattered deep convection in and around the wave axis (just south of the west part of Cuba). At this time visible satellite images do not show a closed low level circulation, and surface observations from the Cayman Islands show a strong wave axis and no closed surface low. However convection has been increasing over this area today and it is very possible that a surface low could form over the next 24 hours as the system moving toward the Yucatan Channel.

This wave will move slowly across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-72 hours with both upper level and surface conditions becoming increasingly favorable for development of this wave. Only drawback appears to be dry air over the central and western Gulf of Mexico which could limit some of the convection and organization. IF a low level center can form conditions look overall favorable for intensification and this falls in line with the latest model run intensity guidance showing the system developing into a closed tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. The global models seem to still not be latching on to this system and show limited development while the short range NAM and hurricane model HWRF bring a tropical cyclone to the western Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend.

Potential Track:

Model guidance today has shifted northward from northern Mexico into the TX coast due to the migration of the ridge over TX toward the east starting tomorrow. Pattern is fairly similar to the record heat and drought of 1980, but appears the ridge this year is slightly more northward and northeastward than in August of 1980. As the ridge shifts eastward later this week, a weakness will be developing over the NW Gulf and TX allowing any tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico to turn toward the NW toward the weakness in the ridge. It is a fairly straightforward forecast track as any system will round the western side of the high over the SE US and impact the MX/TX coast. How fast the ridge breaks down and shifts eastward does lead to some amount of forecast track spread in the 72-96 hour period from the middle TX coast to NE MX. Additionally, there is no low level center at the moment, and where/when one forms could also impact the forecast track.

Impacts:

For now will go with some slow development possibly with the system forming into a tropical storm and heading for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week. Will keep things conservative at this time with increased rain chances of 30-50% Friday-Saturday and back winds to the E starting Friday morning and increasing into the 10-25mph range. Should the system become a tropical storm or a hurricane significant forecast changes will be required for much of the TX coast including significant ramping up of tides and seas along the coast for Friday and Saturday and much greater rain chances.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system over the next 48 hours. Regardless of current developments, residents should review hurricane preparation plans.

And another day at 100.0f here at the house. Watering in hopes of attracting moisture from 90L. Not really looking forward to dealing with a TC if it comes more NW than progged at this time, but we sure do need the rain!! I don't think the question is if it will develop anymore, but how much and how quick does the ridge pull East?

[HurricaneBrain]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES VIDOR...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 541 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIDOR... MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... VIDOR BY 620 PM CDT... PINE FOREST BY 625 PM CDT... PINE FOREST BY 630 PM CDT... ROSE CITY BY 635 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ... DEADLY LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS... AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

[Flyinman]

The weather continues to get stranger by the day. No rain yesterday but a nice shower around 6 am this morning. Received about .5" at the house. I cannot remember the last time it thundered and rained that early in the morning.

[vbhoutex]

The weather continues to get stranger by the day. No rain yesterday but a nice shower around 6 am this morning. Received about .5" at the house. I cannot remember the last time it thundered and rained that early in the morning.

I slept through it! Yesterday was the first day in while I haven't been above 100f. Next week looks like it will be a scorcher!! I got a total of 0.12" of rain from showers and spits yesterday.

[southerngale]

Wanna know what's strange? BPT officially recorded more rain from Don than both Brownsville and Corpus Christi.... put together!! I haven't checked the Houston airports, but they may have also. Brownsville NWS shows that they only got .63 and Corpus NWS shows only .02
BPT recorded .74

There's no doubt that some spots in this area got even more than that and that's probably the same in Deep South Texas as well, but still.... weird!

[vbhoutex]

Looks like the heat is on this week!! We hit 103.1f at the house today and 102f at the nearest weatherbug site. Not looking forward to this week at all. All the local stations are showing triple digits all week long.

[South Texas Storms]

Like the title of this thread says: "This IS getting rediculous"!

[Flyinman]

Just getting the Gulf ripe for September. Just getting it ripe.

[Tireman4]

To end July on a lovely note, here now is the National Weather Service HGX



CLIMATE...
JULY IS IN THE BOOKS AND IT WAS THE THIRD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD
FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON...THE SECOND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD FOR
GALVESTON AND TIED FOR THE SECOND WARMEST JULY AT COLLEGE STATION.
IT WAS ALSO THE SEVENTH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD FOR COLLEGE STATION.
IT WAS THE THIRD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD FOR HOBBY AIRPORT.

THE NEW 1981-2010 CLIMATE NORMALS BECOME OPERATIONAL LATER TODAY.
THE CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON DAILY CLIMATE
SUMMARY.

Sigh..
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[vbhoutex]

And we start August on a HOT note. Here in W Houston we hit 103f today. I am not looking forward to the rest of this week!! Current predictions are for the temp to just keep going up for the next 4 days.

[vbhoutex]

Heat Advisory‏

6:57 AM
Jeffrey (Flood Control) Lindner

NWS has issued a Heat Advisory effective at 100pm this afternoon for all SE TX counties except the counties of Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, and Calhoun. Heat index values are forecasted to rise above 108 today in the advisory area and likely rise above 108 again on Wednesday. The advisory will remain in place until afternoon heat index values fall below 105 degrees which may not happen until sometimes next week.

Massive vertically stacked high pressure system bringing record heat to the state of TX (see highs yesterday below). Upper high is centered over SE OK and NE TX and providing extensive subsidence and warming of the air column. This will likely be some of the hottest weather the state has endured since September 2000. Weak low level flow during the afternoon hours form the SW will allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 100’s along and north of US 59 today through the weekend. Temperatures north of HWY 105 will likely top out in the 104-108 range for this same period. Along and north of US 59 highs will run in the 102-105 range and along the coast 96-99. Overnight lows are having trouble falling much below the 79-82 degree range and this is keep high heat stress late into the overnight hours. Conditions are even worse just to our north and west under the heart of this ridge where afternoon highs of 105-110 are possible. Heat index yesterday afternoon rose to 113 at Fort Hood, TX.

Little hope for much of any change into early next week as the powerful ridge that has been with us for much of the summer remains in firm control. Afternoon highs in the 102-108 range will be likely with lows around 80 through the weekend into early next week with little to no chance of rainfall.

Residents should take the proper precautions and ensure appropriate amounts of rest and hydration when outside during this extremely hot period. While Texans tend to be accustom to heat, daily heat index values at or above 105 and warm overnight lows gradually build heat stress on the body for those outside for long periods of time. Take frequent breaks and maintain proper hydration.

Highs Monday:

Victoria: 103 (tied record of 103 in 1998)
College Station: 106 (tied record of 106 in 1998)
Dallas: 107 (broke record of 106 in 1998)
Waco: 107 (broke record of 106 in 1998)
BUSH IAH: 100
Hobby: 98
Tomball: 103
Sugar Land: 100
Huntsville: 106
Conroe: 103
Wharton: 100
Brenham: 102
Austin: 105
Austin Mabry: 107
San Antonio: 102

[Ptarmigan]

And we start August on a HOT note. Here in W Houston we hit 103f today. I am not looking forward to the rest of this week!! Current predictions are for the temp to just keep going up for the next 4 days.

The Cockroach Ridge keeps prevailing. We think it is out and it comes back like a cockroach.