ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

[Evil Jeremy]

Vorticity has vastly improved over the past 6 hours. Much more consolidated now:

6 Hours Ago:


Now:


91L is looking healthy this morning. I say the NHC raises their TWO to 80% at 2pm, though 90% wouldn't surprise me, given how unpredictable they have been this season.

I know I posted this in the models thread, meant to post it in here.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS smashes Hisp and then obliterates Miami...ouch

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


models are trending south today....

[Evil Jeremy]

12Z NOGAPS smashes Hisp and then obliterates Miami...ouch

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


models are trending south today....

The trend is your friend. And the east coast's enemy.

[JPmia]

lol that run is Florida's worst case scenario as far as track.. i love how the models obliterate Miami every year.. thankfully they're never 100% right.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS smashes Hisp and then obliterates Miami...ouch

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


models are trending south today....

The trend is your friend. And the east coast's enemy.

GFS ensembles always give it away....EURO out it a few....should be interesting...

[msbee]

This is going to be a great one to track. Does it beat the ridge and recurve into Bermuda, or does the ridge push back and slide it into the Carolinas? Or is the ridge extra strong, pushing it over Florida and into the Gulf? Regardless, this one has the potential to be a loooooong tracker with some really interesting steering.

I'm pumped.

Well, I am not pumped about the prospects of our fellow neighbors down in the NE Caribbean islands potentially staring down at this storm in a few days. This could get to be a potentially dangerous situation for them. I'm hope and pray for the best situation possible, but also hope those folks are preparing for the worst as this system likely heads their way within the next 72 hours.

But, I do agree with you that this tropical cyclone will be quite a fascinating one to monitor all next week. There are so many variables to factor in with this system, including the ones you mentioned plasticup. Everyone definitely needs to pay attention for sure all week long with the progress of future Emily.

Thanks northjaxpro for the concern. we're not pumped down here...we're nervous

[cycloneye]

80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Vortex]

Hey Rock, I hope you and Ivan got plenty of rest this offseason...Im sure Ill see you both plenty over the next 12 weeks about 2am waiting for the ECM to roll in....

[Ivanhater]

Look at the short term change...Canadian now bringing it SOUTH of PR then closer toward the Bahamas

[BigA]

12Z CMC Way too close for comfort for the southeast coast, not to mention the Bahamas. Nogaps continues a Caribbean trajectory, the FOXWRF model (I don't know if its associated with a local fox affiliate, but that's the only place where I can find it) has it similar to the NOGAPS track, if even a bit south. Lots more model watching ahead.

[ROCK]

Look at the short term change...Canadian now bringing it SOUTH of PR then closer toward the Bahamas

You know I am going to start looking at the NAM more often.....

[Aric Dunn]

well unless some real organized convection develops between now and say 10 we are not going to see an upgrade today.

[CrazyC83]

NOGAPS = worst model of all. It always seems to run doomsday scenarios.

[northjaxpro]

80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Up to 80%. I think NHC will pronounce this a TD later tonight, and obviously will hold off until Air Force Recon aircraft gets in there tomorrow to upgrade to TS status it appears.

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z NOGAPS smashes Hisp and then obliterates Miami...ouch

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


models are trending south today....

Hey Rock, when I try to pull up that link I get page that says, "There is a problem with this website's security certificate"
and it won't let me go further. Anyone else get this?

EDIT: oops, nevermind, I got it to work, just clicked on the link even though my browser told me it's "not recommended"....That's IE for ya I guess.
Anyway, Ouch is right!! Miami??? Are you kidding me?

[ROCK]

Hey Rock, I hope you and Ivan got plenty of rest this offseason...Im sure Ill see you both plenty over the next 12 weeks about 2am waiting for the ECM to roll in....

yes, I am afraid so.... but we all live for this time of year so I expect all of you to be up with us!!

[CrazyC83]

Talk about no consensus at all right now...difficult forecast...with every scenario open right now from stay south/Caribbean storm to early recurve.

[HurricaneWarning92]

This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

[ROCK]

80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Up to 80%. I think NHC will pronounce this a TD later tonight, and obviously will hold off until Air Force Recon aircraft gets in there tomorrow to upgrade to TS status it appears.

why? unless is improves later...right now you have 2 areas competing for the same moisture envelope. Until that changes no upgrade. I think both of these guys formed due to very large area of low pressure that came with this wave....I think it was around 1008MB coming across the pond....