ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[MGC]

This has the look to become a large powerful hurricane. There is little shear and the ULL to its north is only producing a outflow channel. The SST are plenty warm. I don't see anything stopping it. Looks to be heading just north of west. Looks like the folks in the islands might be in for a blow.....MGC

[shaggy]

Yeah its been going NW because its disconnected fully from the ITCZ, looks like thats pretty much done now...

Still a elongated low but no doubts its almost there and probably meets the critera for being upgraded...I sure hope the NHC aren't going to be behind the curve for yet another storm...

Rest assured. They are not...

They are all over it if you look at the recon thread and the missions that are already planned,including the gulfstream jet.

I think thats a message in itself cycloneye. They are clearly concerned about this storms potential track and have numerous flights planned tomorrow. I suspect they wait until the plane gets in there tomorrow for an upgrade unless the satellite imagery forces them to go with an upgrade earlier than tomorrows flights.

[nicole]

So is this def expected to recurve??? Or is there still some chance of it going through the Carb into the GOM??

[ConvergenceZone]

My question is, if the NOGAPS has such a horrible track record of accuracy, why does the NHC continue to use it? You would think they would either tweek the math that goes into its inaccurate predictions, or just get rid of it completely....

[WxEnthus]

Hmm, no 5pm upgrade. Perhaps to a raise at 8pm and then a TD at 11pm? It may not be perfect yet but it's hard to believe they'd wait until tomorrow to at least go with a TD. Seems a tad late given there may be real concerns for impact to the islands.

[Content is only the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

[KWT]

So is this def expected to recurve??? Or is there still some chance of it going through the Carb into the GOM??

Not impossible for it to do that, however its probably a rank outsider in terms of chances of it happening.

WxEnthus, i actually see why the NHC are holding back, in these elongated systems sometimes its difficult for just one LLC to take over and become dominant, I'm sure they are ready and probably already briefing governments in the Caribbean about it.

[nicole]

can someone please give me a link for the EURO?

[wxman57]

I hope not. If it continues organizing tonight at the rate it has been all day, this should be a TD at least by 11pm tonight, and if the NHC decides they want to wait until recon gets into the system, that gives less warning time for the Lesser Antilles.

That's right, if they wait for recon then it will be less than 24 hours from impacting the Caribbean on the first advisory and TS/H warnings will be issued too late. I remember one of the NHC forecasters saying (in a presentation at last year's National Hurricane Conf.) that they could issue watches/warnings for a developing disturbance BEFORE it was designated a TD. This is their chance. Why wait? It's 48 hours from hitting the islands now. Time for a TS watch at least.

[KWT]

My question is, if the NOGAPS has such a horrible track record of accuracy, why does the NHC continue to use it? You would think they would either tweek the math that goes into its inaccurate predictions, or just get rid of it completely....

Because ultimatly it is still a dynamic model and whilst maybe not a good one it can help to add consensus. Something is better then nothing pretty much.

[SeminoleWind]

can someone please give me a link for the EURO?

here ya go...


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8120312!!/

[KWT]

This has the look to become a large powerful hurricane. There is little shear and the ULL to its north is only producing a outflow channel. The SST are plenty warm. I don't see anything stopping it. Looks to be heading just north of west. Looks like the folks in the islands might be in for a blow.....MGC

Yep, I'm thinking maybe a 60-70kts system into the Windwards, then probably 90-105kts into the NE Caribbean landmasses, not sure yet...before a recurve out to sea, maybe a close call with the Bahamas.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

From sunrise to sunset. Look at the change it has gone thru during the day.

[bamajammer4eva]

I hope not. If it continues organizing tonight at the rate it has been all day, this should be a TD at least by 11pm tonight, and if the NHC decides they want to wait until recon gets into the system, that gives less warning time for the Lesser Antilles.

That's right, if they wait for recon then it will be less than 24 hours from impacting the Caribbean on the first advisory and TS/H warnings will be issued too late. I remember one of the NHC forecasters saying (in a presentation at last year's National Hurricane Conf.) that they could issue watches/warnings for a developing disturbance BEFORE it was designated a TD. This is their chance. Why wait? It's 48 hours from hitting the islands now. Time for a TS watch at least.

That would be different-wonder where they would mention it since watches/warnings usually go in the advisory. TWO?

JB's Thoughts

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi


Puerto Rico Threatened Tuesday by Emily to Be.. Bahamas after that. anxious moments next weekend for US possible

['CaneFreak]

I strongly agree wxman...

I hope not. If it continues organizing tonight at the rate it has been all day, this should be a TD at least by 11pm tonight, and if the NHC decides they want to wait until recon gets into the system, that gives less warning time for the Lesser Antilles.

That's right, if they wait for recon then it will be less than 24 hours from impacting the Caribbean on the first advisory and TS/H warnings will be issued too late. I remember one of the NHC forecasters saying (in a presentation at last year's National Hurricane Conf.) that they could issue watches/warnings for a developing disturbance BEFORE it was designated a TD. This is their chance. Why wait? It's 48 hours from hitting the islands now. Time for a TS watch at least.

[shaggy]

Sorry for this question but I am working nightshift this weekend and have just recently woken up.... I saw in several posts earlier that the nogaps(as bad of a model as it is) was in line with the euro showing a over the islands and into the southern florida area track? Yet on wunderground maps it has the nogaps north of the islands and ending up in the northern bahamas.....am I missing something?

[KWT]

Looks close Cycloneye, I'd go with 90% myself, its close but not quite there, tohugh probably only needs one decent deep convective burst over the center.

Recon will probably find a 45-55kts system tomorrow I think...

[Aric Dunn]

I hope not. If it continues organizing tonight at the rate it has been all day, this should be a TD at least by 11pm tonight, and if the NHC decides they want to wait until recon gets into the system, that gives less warning time for the Lesser Antilles.

That's right, if they wait for recon then it will be less than 24 hours from impacting the Caribbean on the first advisory and TS/H warnings will be issued too late. I remember one of the NHC forecasters saying (in a presentation at last year's National Hurricane Conf.) that they could issue watches/warnings for a developing disturbance BEFORE it was designated a TD. This is their chance. Why wait? It's 48 hours from hitting the islands now. Time for a TS watch at least.

Dont they have to contact all gov agencies first. maybe they cant get a hold of anyone.. lol

[srainhoutx]

I hope not. If it continues organizing tonight at the rate it has been all day, this should be a TD at least by 11pm tonight, and if the NHC decides they want to wait until recon gets into the system, that gives less warning time for the Lesser Antilles.

That's right, if they wait for recon then it will be less than 24 hours from impacting the Caribbean on the first advisory and TS/H warnings will be issued too late. I remember one of the NHC forecasters saying (in a presentation at last year's National Hurricane Conf.) that they could issue watches/warnings for a developing disturbance BEFORE it was designated a TD. This is their chance. Why wait? It's 48 hours from hitting the islands now. Time for a TS watch at least.

As you know the NHC is part of the WMO Region IV. We are fortunate that this organization 'functions' better than other NATO organiztions and work well together. After all, it is up to each individual member State of Region IV to issue their watches/warnings.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert "Cyclone" has been requiered for Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards by Meteo-France.
French version: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/sp ... e_2007.php

[Gustywind]

From sunrise to sunset. Look at the change it has gone thru during the day.

91L continues to be fairly impressive, does not sound good for the islanders if this feature continues to improve its very nice structure...