ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

JB's Thoughts

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi
Puerto Rico Threatened Tuesday by Emily to Be.. Bahamas after that. anxious moments next weekend for US possible

Sounds like a fairly reasonable call from JB, I think its quite clear now this is a major threat to the NE Caribbean west through to Hispaniola and its developing in a region that has produced some real beasts in the past.

I think odds are pretty good that it'll be a major at some point...looks like a classic WPAC system!

[msbee]

Gusty
do they have an English version?

[otowntiger]

BAMs really receded on their 18z run, with none of them showing clear recurve unlike the previous run.

?

The tvcn takes a sharp ene turn at the end of that run?

It appears that according to that spaghetti model graphic that this system may not be a fish (because it could hit the islands) but it certainly appears to be a recurver . Does not look to be a threat to the Continental U.S., at least according to the models that is, imho.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks really, really close in that time lapse.

[HurricaneWarning92]

wow 2005 had 7 named storms by the start of August... 6 would be very close...

Unless the "F" named storm forms from that wave coming off Africa and they upgrade it today or tomorrow we will only have 5 named storms by August 1st. Which is still only 2 storms away from 2005. At this rate we are on track to use all the names on the list this year if this continues!

yes, thats what i meant. Emily would be 5 since it is expected to become the 5th storm of the season before July ends. Its just someone mention a possible Franklin very soon as well come August. but thank you.

[Gustywind]

Gusty
do they have an English version?

No unhopefully Msbee, you should have to translate from french to english. Thus they have a protection of their weather forecast in PDF version.

[Nimbus]

The models probably will change over time as they usually do. Most of the official initialization points that have been posted recently look a little too far east. Guess we wait till the elongation issue is settled and we have a clear center. Like they said it should be somewhere between 12.8 N and 13 N when it passes 50 W.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

It appears that according to that spaghetti model graphic that this system may not be a fish (because it could hit the islands) but it certainly appears to be a recurver . Does not look to be a threat to the Continental U.S., at least according to the models that is, imho.

Yeah the models sure look that way, ewsp if you look at the predicited upper pattern, gonna need a big change for this system to be a threat to the US other then maybe the outer Banks. The Bahamas on the otherhand do need to keep a real close eye, because thats a big too close to call...

Obviously its also fair to say things can change, rapidly.

[bella_may]

I just dont see how some of you guys are ruling this thing out of coming in the GOM.it still looks like a real possibility and the models are shifting south

[KWT]

Looks really, really close in that time lapse.

Yep, i wonder whether the presence of the other circulation (which is weaker then yesterday but still rather obvious) is part of the reason why the NHC are just holding back from upgrading.

Barring a really unexpected poofage, this one will be upgraded in the next 24hrs.

[shaggy]

It appears that according to that spaghetti model graphic that this system may not be a fish (because it could hit the islands) but it certainly appears to be a recurver . Does not look to be a threat to the Continental U.S., at least according to the models that is, imho.

Yeah the models sure look that way, ewsp if you look at the predicited upper pattern, gonna need a big change for this system to be a threat to the US other then maybe the outer Banks. The Bahamas on the otherhand do need to keep a real close eye, because thats a big too close to call...

Obviously its also fair to say things can change, rapidly.

I was noticing on the 12z runs of the cmc and gfs that there seemed to be a ridge building in north of the system in the last couple of frames of both those models. Its A LONG ways out and everything is going to change over the course of the next 8-10 days but it did catch my eye earlier.

[DonWrk]

Gusty
do they have an English version?

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteo.gp%2Fdonnees%2Fbulletin%2Fspecial%2Falert_gene_libre_2007.php

[ozonepete]

Pretty large system. Too close for comfort.

[Florida1118]

I just dont see how some of you guys are ruling this thing out of coming in the GOM.it still looks like a real possibility and the models are shifting south

Because, even if they are shifting south, they all bring it to the Bahamas and Eastward. None point at the gulf YET. If we see that, some of us might change our thought. Thats the thing with the tropics. It changes.

[theweatherwatch]

It appears that according to that spaghetti model graphic that this system may not be a fish (because it could hit the islands) but it certainly appears to be a recurver . Does not look to be a threat to the Continental U.S., at least according to the models that is, imho.

However MOST of the models there never finish the recurve in the time that they run up to. 91L/Emily could be a threat to the US East Coast if the recurve isn't finished.

[ozonepete]

I just dont see how some of you guys are ruling this thing out of coming in the GOM.it still looks like a real possibility and the models are shifting south

Because, even if they are shifting south, they all bring it to the Bahamas and Eastward. None point at the gulf YET. If we see that, some of us might change our thought. Thats the thing with the tropics. It changes.

Loooong way to go for that. We can speculate, but there is no technology at this point in time that can predict that far out.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears that according to that spaghetti model graphic that this system may not be a fish (because it could hit the islands) but it certainly appears to be a recurver . Does not look to be a threat to the Continental U.S., at least according to the models that is, imho.

Yeah the models sure look that way, ewsp if you look at the predicited upper pattern, gonna need a big change for this system to be a threat to the US other then maybe the outer Banks. The Bahamas on the otherhand do need to keep a real close eye, because thats a big too close to call...

Obviously its also fair to say things can change, rapidly.

I was noticing on the 12z runs of the cmc and gfs that there seemed to be a ridge building in north of the system in the last couple of frames of both those models. Its A LONG ways out and everything is going to change over the course of the next 8-10 days but it did catch my eye earlier.

cant figure out why everyone seems to be overlooking one of the most reliable models this time... The euro calls for a east coast threat along with the nogaps and GFDL... the gfs stalls the system which clearly means that ridging build back in and steering is weak. the cmc also does.. point being this progressive pattern does not bode well for a recurve before at least the bahamas... especially for a large system and with the large size we are looking at even more uncertainty.

[shaggy]

It appears that according to that spaghetti model graphic that this system may not be a fish (because it could hit the islands) but it certainly appears to be a recurver . Does not look to be a threat to the Continental U.S., at least according to the models that is, imho.

However MOST of the models there never finish the recurve in the time that they run up to. 91L/Emily could be a threat to the US East Coast if the recurve isn't finished.

Thats why I was asking about the animated runs of the cmc and gfs. Both show some sort of ridge building back in to the north of the system. If the trough doesn't get it to do a full recurve then the EC needs to watch it carefully. So many days away plenty of time to watch it for us.....the islands on the other hand need to be going over hurricane preperations now.

[FireRat]

It's looking better as the day goes by, I agree with Wxman, they should immediately issue a warning on this developing monster. I've been warning about August 1st-4th and Aug. 7-10 as perhaps having hurricane type events at another forum I belong. I wonder if this storm would encompass both time frames? Looks like it will be a big player, much more promising than Don that's for sure. I'd say it's already looking like a TD.