ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

Just to point out a few things with the EURO.....it was trending a southern carib cruiser a few runs ago, then north and now back a little south.....I would wait for tonight and see if it has some consistancy.

[KWT]

The upper ridge most models build is only a stop gap type system, its very weak on most models and not enough to shunt it back...

Thats why on the GFS and ECM 91L just stalls/slows rather then goes westwards, its just waiting for the next trough to pick it up and shunt it out to sea.

Going to still need a rather big change even from the GFS/ECM preidiciton.

[bella_may]

If this tracks south of pr,do you think it will get in the gulf?

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/TAG/Tagant.jpg

Pretty large system. Too close for comfort.

Absolutely my friend too large for comfort is becoming more and more an euphemism. This feature is becoming fatter and fatter hour after hour. 91L could pose a a possible threat if it continues to track in vicinity of the Lesser Antilles and gains in intensity. For info, Meteo-France Guadeloupe is anticipated a path between Martinique and the Northern Leewards.
Gustywind

[HurricaneWarning92]

this thing could explode come tomorrow...

[KWT]

Still would be quite difficult, no model has even gotten there yet on thier forecast...however it'd be a little foolish to totally discount it. That being said, i'd give it sometyhing like 2% chance at the moment of getting to the gulf, so small odds...and this is backed up by the models overall.

GFDL run would probably be a close call, as would Nogaps.

[Aric Dunn]

The upper ridge most models build is only a stop gap type system, its very weak on most models and not enough to shunt it back...

Thats why on the GFS and ECM 91L just stalls/slows rather then goes westwards, its just waiting for the next trough to pick it up and shunt it out to sea.

Going to still need a rather big change even from the GFS/ECM preidiciton.

I said it before. but the models do not have a handle on the potenial size of the system and if it does become a major then it will push against the ridge and build it briefly as they do. and with a pattern with no real troughs just weakness I dont think it will even make it far enough north to get picked up by a trough that early. Also the models are extremely fast still and it has already slowed down nearly 10kts from yesterday. I agree its too early to tell. but the euro has a stronger ridge extending farther west with a smaller weakness. even if the euro went full hurricane on the last run it would only likely have it pull just north of or over hispanola. but need to wait till it deepens for the models to latch on ..

[KWT]

One thing that is true is its large size is going to mean its going to throw alot of rain over the E.Caribbean over the next few days, that in itself could leasd to flooding problems regardless of how strong it develops.

[Aric Dunn]

This actually reminds me of charlie in the sense that it was forecast to recurve and each run the models recurved it to early and it just kept shifting.. Beven even said he was baffled as to why that happened. I beleive it was charlie anyway...

[cycloneye]

One thing that is true is its large size is going to mean its going to throw alot of rain over the E.Caribbean over the next few days, that in itself could leasd to flooding problems regardless of how strong it develops.

In Puerto Rico,we dont need more rains as July has been the 6th one in the history of the month with most rainfall.

...SO FAR...THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION RECORDED FOR
JULY 2011 HAS BEEN 9.71 INCHES. THEREFORE...JULY 2011 IS NOW THE
WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT WFO SAN JUAN. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 1961
WITH 9.35 INCHES. HOWEVER...TAKING IN CONSIDERATION ALL YEARS BACK
IN THE 1900`S OVER THE SAN JUAN AREA...THE RECORD IS 11.23 SET IN
1950. JULY 2011 IS 6TH IN ALL TIME RECORD FOR SAN JUAN AREA.

[shaggy]

The upper ridge most models build is only a stop gap type system, its very weak on most models and not enough to shunt it back...

Thats why on the GFS and ECM 91L just stalls/slows rather then goes westwards, its just waiting for the next trough to pick it up and shunt it out to sea.

Going to still need a rather big change even from the GFS/ECM preidiciton.

One minor concern I would have is the bullish way the gfs tends to weaken ridges. Like last year and earl they had to constantly shift the track westward from an initial recurve near bermuda to a close call on the OBX of NC. That flaw in the GFS leaves room for a slightly more westward track and that could mean a closer brush to the coast on its way out.

Going back and looking at the pdf for earl in the archives the last page they show how biased the models were for an early recurve that never panned out. This storm isn't going to be like earl but it just goes to show how the models can underdo the ridging this time of the year.

[theweatherwatch]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I updated my blog - http://theweatherlookout.blogspot.com/

Don Makes Landfall and 91L gaining Organization in the Atlantic
Good Evening Hurricane Trackers! Last night Don made landfall as a 50 mph Tropical Storm. Don quickly weakened from the very Dry air in place over Texas and the last NHC advisory was issued this morning.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic 91L is quickly Organizing this evening. The NHC gives 91L a 80% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Recon missions will begin for 91L tomorrow and I will have full updates on the recon missions starting tomorrow evening and going until the threat subsides.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


If you are currently in the Lesser Antilles you should be preparing for a tropical Storm or Hurricane to start impacting your region Monday or Tuesday. Please see products issued by the National Hurricane Center and your local weather office when making life or death decisions.

I will have another update here at a little after 8pm tonight.

Once 91L is past the Islands I will start to break down the models for those of us in the US and will share my thoughts on this developing situation.

Please note that I am in no way a Professional Met. and that these are my thoughts and my thoughts alone. For Official Information please make sure you get it from the NHC and/or your local weather office!

[KWT]

I said it before. but the models do not have a handle on the potenial size of the system and if it does become a major then it will push against the ridge and build it briefly as they do...

Could work either way, could either do that or it could just scoot and follow the weak upper trough as it exits away.

Typically in those solutions, models tend to shift westwards as they tend to be too progressive with regards to the weaknewss...and it usually takes several bites of the cherry as well...hence why I'm worried about the Bahamas, despite most models still being east of there...

[Aric Dunn]

I said it before. but the models do not have a handle on the potenial size of the system and if it does become a major then it will push against the ridge and build it briefly as they do...

Could work either way, could either do that or it could just scoot and follow the weak upper trough as it exits away.

Typically in those solutions, models tend to shift westwards as they tend to be too progressive with regards to the weaknewss...and it usually takes several bites of the cherry as well...hence why I'm worried about the Bahamas, despite most models still being east of there...

but the majority bring it into the bahamas... at least the SE

[Aric Dunn]

is it just me.. or is the 18z gfs very far south and heading west...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

I take that back... just farther west...

[JPmia]

This actually reminds me of charlie in the sense that it was forecast to recurve and each run the models recurved it to early and it just kept shifting.. Beven even said he was baffled as to why that happened. I beleive it was charlie anyway...

I remember that with Ivan as well and look where that went.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I said it before. but the models do not have a handle on the potenial size of the system and if it does become a major then it will push against the ridge and build it briefly as they do...

Could work either way, could either do that or it could just scoot and follow the weak upper trough as it exits away.

Typically in those solutions, models tend to shift westwards as they tend to be too progressive with regards to the weaknewss...and it usually takes several bites of the cherry as well...hence why I'm worried about the Bahamas, despite most models still being east of there...

Florida isnt that far away from the Bahamas.

[KWT]

I take that back... just farther west...

Yep, general idea is the same but just a little faster westerly motion in the first part of the run...Got a feeling this run will be a little west of its 12z run, not by much but maybe enough for Hispaniola/Bahamas to need to watch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection has been waning this evening, but should re-fire overnight. Now, I'm no expert, but am I right in thinking that waning convection could be a sign of the storm organizing it's vorticity/multiple lows? I'm probably wrong, but worth asking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html