ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

the Low of east coast this run is much farther east than the 12z already past "emily" vs the 12z where is was still digging ...

should start turning though ..

Yep, though as you say its already starting to turn to the NW by 120hrs because the trough has dug that bit deeper then it did on its 12z run.

Still not seeing enough to suggest much of a risk for the east coast...YET...though obviously its not impossible!

[Aric Dunn]

138 hours.. trough lifting out ridge build north of it.. east of bahams by 50 miles or so ..

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks for posting that wxman57. Now I'm MUCH more confident about this heading out to sea AFTER it impacts the islands that is.....
The weakness is very evident on that map..... The only question is, at what location does it actually make the turn out to sea?
Hopefully Emily won't be too strong....

[dixiebreeze]

30/1745 UTC 12.8N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic

[KWT]

Steering currents rather weak by 144-156hrs, gotta hope its not near the Bahamas otherwise that will be a rough ride.

Outer Banks possibly need to keep an eye on this set-up as well FWIW, because if it gets far enough west then if the next upper trough takes its time the system could drift NNW towards you and by that time it maybe a little too late.

Track could end up like Earl.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 156.. steering breaks down .. up stream looks like another piece of energy..

[KWT]

It still has that "look" so...

Yeah the structure is still good which is why I think its quite obviously only a matter of time before it develops, rare is it that a system has such a neat structure but not develop.

[bamajammer4eva]

It stalls it from 120-171 hrs at least

[KWT]

Moves near due north by 168hrs ready for recurving...

Upper pattern just is not going to be condusive for a US landfall threat...but that same pattern is deadly for E/C Caribbean.

[KWT]

Totally different kettle of fish, Ican was very much a 50-50 type weakness...and that was 2004, the models are actually much better then they were back then as well...

Plus thats one heck of a weakness, as I said the sysxtem will have to stay south of 15N till 70W to have a shot at a US landfall..

However to get into a recurve, its going to have to hook up through the islands somewhere which is where the major concern has to be right now, esp as the pattern looks pretty good for a hurricane.

[Recurve]

As usual, our best tropical weather expert puts it all in perspective. Thanks Wxman.

By the way, as large as the overall system appears to be, I'm a little unimpressed by the lack of large areas of very high tops and the overall diffuse nature of the thing at this point. Course if it get a nice central focus and things start spinning, we may be off to the races. But right now it's not too fast coming together.

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[HurricaneWarning92]

Moves near due north by 168hrs ready for recurving...

Upper pattern just is not going to be condusive for a US landfall threat...but that same pattern is deadly for E/C Caribbean.

for now? or you are talking about the entire season?

[KWT]

NNE at 180hrs and recurving out to sea.

West and stronger then the 12z run, just need to watch those small adjustments at the start of the runs, those can soon mean other areas get into the threat zone.

Its the exact same pattern as last year, its uncanny...

[Aric Dunn]

up 192 hrs there is nothing to lift it out.. probably going to stall for a moment..

[Mouton]

Perhaps the fact it is a large system with declining cloud tops is why the NHC has not upgraded it. Also, I don't really see a central circulation point either, so it is kind of a diffuse blob right now. Odds are it does centralize and compact which will spin it up; perhaps by 36 hours it will be a strong TS. Moving at this rate though will keep rapid development to a minimum IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

bye bye... hehe..

[KWT]

Slow motion of to the NNE/NE by 204hrs, any further south and it'd be a threat to Bermuda, any further west and the east coast, esp Outer Banks would have to keep an eye on the speed of the next upper trough.

[ConvergenceZone]

Totally different kettle of fish, Ican was very much a 50-50 type weakness...and that was 2004, the models are actually much better then they were back then as well...

Plus thats one heck of a weakness, as I said the sysxtem will have to stay south of 15N till 70W to have a shot at a US landfall..

However to get into a recurve, its going to have to hook up through the islands somewhere which is where the major concern has to be right now, esp as the pattern looks pretty good for a hurricane.

Good point KWT. I honestly don't see how it CAN'T recurve, unless it's south of the islands. I mean, even if the high pressure to the east of the weakeness is a little further west that than graphic shows, all it means is that it will recurve will be more west of Burmuda, but that's a large weakeness that should suck up Emily like a vacuum cleaner.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The longer it takes to develop the more westward shes gonna go, and it would take longer for it to feel the effects of the weakness.

[Vortex]

18Z nogaps almost identical to its 12Z run..Over hispanolia and into South Florida....



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical