WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

#241 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:37 pm

I can talk about military people most of them have the ocncept of "Oh it will turn and miss us" I know the guys who I work with no what is coming back I let them know all the time...I will probably no mor etomorrow when we go back to work..I am wondering if they will accelerate the Typhoon conditions cause the winds could be potentially that high so I can give you a better answer tomorrow

KWT · #242 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:39 pm

neospaceblue wrote:
By Thursday, I doubt it will still be this powerful. It could be a monster still, but probably not the beast it is right now.

Still going to be 100kts+ and thats plenty strong. For now its core is tight, but a couple of EWRC will probably loosen the system out and expand it.

#243 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:52 pm

Pinhole eye

#244 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:30 pm

Guessing the intensity is almost impossible with this thing. Could it be deeper than Typhoon Tip was?

KWT · #245 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:33 pm

Quite possibly Crazy...

Thats one of the best storms I've ever seen, its like a Wilma clone, esp with the way it was wobbling about as it was undergoing RI today.

#246 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:36 pm

Ooh... im saving pics on my tumblr site, this is a classic.

rdhdstpchld · #247 Postby **rdhdstpchld** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:38 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:So I wake up and JTWC tells me Thursday the storm could be 17 NM from us with winds between 140-165 mph....WOW!

i'm just wondering, how is the enivonment there right now (social), what i mean is do the people even know there's a potential super typhoon heading your way?? what about shops, news, etc??? if i was there i'd probably be panicking already lol!

17 NM, you're right in the path of the strongest winds!!!

My guess is "no" -- the locals here never seem to know one is coming -- even a day or two before Songda hit, I had to show the graphic to a lady at the auto hobby shop and she seemed shocked. Ma-on was nowhere on the local radar scene either (even tho it turned) -- I really think they wait for the winds to start...LOL. Most of the homes here are cramped together and no trees to worry about; since it's all concrete, it's not as big a deal to them. Tho they ALL say this season is going to be awful. I have a friend arriving tonight from the states for a 2yr tour..."welcome!" indeed...LOL

KWT · #248 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:52 pm

ClarkEligue wrote:Ooh... im saving pics on my tumblr site, this is a classic.

It is, and I think its almost certainly sub 880mbs, look like Wilma did when it was at 882mbs, and obviously pressures are a bit lower in the WPAC.

euro6208 · #249 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:57 pm

good morning to all :eek:

MONSTER POWERFUL Muifa letting her presence known by rapidly strengthening to a category 5 Super Typhoon...

140 knots sustained but i think she is still stronger when comparing muifa with historical past typhoons during the recon days :eek:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 899.0mb/152.0kt

first peak- 140 knots ....second peak (yesterday)- 160 knots

my opinion on current intensity: 155 knots

KWT · #250 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:03 pm

A very intense storm whatever the true pressure and wind speed likely is. Also looks like its going to be a classic long tracking system, going to really rake up the ACE totals.

#251 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:02 pm

The pinhole eye just got smaller.

neospaceblue · #252 Postby **neospaceblue** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:05 pm

How I wish we had recon in the WPAC.

phwxenthusiast · #253 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:13 pm

northern half seems to be suffering just a little bit...

Dvorak (PGTW) down to 6.5, ADT down to 7.0 as well..

Ptarmigan · #254 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Guessing the intensity is almost impossible with this thing. Could it be deeper than Typhoon Tip was?

It wouldn't surprise me one bit. I think it is easily 880 millibars. More reason for recon.

cheezyWXguy · #255 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:17 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:northern half seems to be suffering just a little bit...

Dvorak (PGTW) down to 6.5, ADT down to 7.0 as well..

yeah I was gonna say, am I the only one that doesnt think this thing looks as good as it did a few hours ago? It looks like this thing is taking a blow from the northeast. Still probably very strong, with a ring of convection around it and a well formed eye, but I doubt this thing is rivaling Tip right now.

Chacor · #256 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:26 pm

ADT numbers are plummeting (final T 6.0; adjusted T 5.7; raw T 5.4.

Storm looks horrible on the Dvorak colour IR, which is a good thing, although it still has its pinhole eye.

Chacor · #257 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:28 pm

JTWC is down to 135 kt, which appears reasonable. It looks like Muifa has hit its primary peak.

phwxenthusiast · #258 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:28 pm

let's see if it can recover... conditions are still favorable when you think about it...

#259 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:30 pm

Probably peaked at 1500Z. I would say 130 kt right now.

Chacor · #260 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:31 pm

JMA 00 UTC:

WTPQ21 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 16.8N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 18.8N 132.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 020000UTC 21.2N 132.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 030000UTC 23.4N 129.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

Re: Re:

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: Re:

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re:

Re:

Who is online