ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[bamajammer4eva]

Here is todays map where past storms have went near while forming near 91L. You can likely discount a Gustav of 1990 track since no model shows this recurving that fast. Which leaves 9 other storms...



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[TheDreamTraveler]

Here is todays map where past storms have went near while forming near 91L. You can likely discount a Gustav of 1990 track since no model shows this recurving that fast. Which leaves 9 other storms...



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Looking at Bertha from 1996 made me remember that for some the 1996 season is an analog year for the 2011 season. Just thought that was a bit interesting. Not saying that it'll follow an exact track like Bertha of course.

[cycloneye]

No renumber so far towards TD 5. It looks like no upgrade at 11 PM,unless at the last minute they decide to do so.

[ronjon]

I took a peak at the GFS operational runs since 00z today and the individual runs have trended south and west by about 2 degrees lat/long today. This morning it had 91L moving off the NE tip of PR and now the latest run pushes the storm to the DR. Also, it now gets about 76W vs about 74W on the earlier runs when near the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

Even the NOGAPS has shifted right and now east of Florida. Very close to Puerto Rico though.

[Ptarmigan]

Here is todays map where past storms have went near while forming near 91L. You can likely discount a Gustav of 1990 track since no model shows this recurving that fast. Which leaves 9 other storms...



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I notice one of the analog track is TS Claudette from 1979. Hmmmm, does this mean rain for us?

[SouthDadeFish]

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

I don't think anyone is denying that. The question is can the trough fully recurve the system or will the ridge build back in?

[CrazyC83]

For those of you asking why this system won't come into the Gulf, it would help to look at the steering pattern that is predicted to be in place by the middle of next week as this projected storm reaches passes the NE Caribbean. Note the high center ENE of the hurricane symbol and the trof immediately in the path of the storm. Also note the flow across the central to western Caribbean. There's nothing to steer it toward the Gulf if it takes a southern track. The one chance would be if that trof off the east coast lifts out unexpectedly and high pressure builds back in. That's probably not likely, but there could be a threat to the east coast.

No doubt unless the trough does not dig that deep and the ridge over the CONUS slides back east and ridges out to the ridge in the Atlantic. Will have to watch and see if the models keep with the trough digging that far. Going to be interesting, they always are!

Based on that, I think this is Yucatan bound ultimately.

[Evil Jeremy]

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

Even the NOGAPS has shifted right and now east of Florida. Very close to Puerto Rico though.

Yes, but the other models have shifted left this past run.

[Nimbus]

The models look a little surreal to me at the moment. Of course this is Emily we are talking about and women aren't necessarily logical. If nothing else its nice they are giving the people living along the southeast coast some peace of mind for now. August should be a busy month what with Emily and now Friedrich.

[KatDaddy]

A classic...TS Claudette that dropped 43" in 24 hours in Alvin, TX. Picked up 22.5"
at moms in Pearland, TX.

[theweatherwatch]

Updated my Blog again with some initial thoughts on what could become of future Emily's Future track based on a new concept I have been introduced to called TeleConnections. You can read the blog here - http://theweatherlookout.blogspot.com/

[gatorcane]

Convection continues to decrease and there looks to be a broad circulation elongated and tilted wsw to ene. That is a sign it is not going to organize quickly.

I do not see an upgrade to Emily tonight and if trends continue not tomorrow either. Dry air is near.

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

[EyELeSs1]

appears like convection is starting to 'pop' around much closer to the center now. Let's see if the trend continues


EDIT:Latest


But seems as if the anticyclone is lagging a bit behind and shear is increasing ahead of 91L.



Should be interesting if we get a solid burst of convection near the center to persist over night. Also, here in Antigua, it's carnival week with Monday and Tuesday being the 'main' days and so they have been declared public holidays. Warnings may now be to late as everything will be closed until the arrival of 'Emily' and so the timing of this system has become a major concern.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

Couldn't have said it better myself Weatherfreak. While the USA mainland looks to be out of danger with soon to be named Emily, the Islands are not...
With the models slowly consodlidating to a recurve solution, the chance of a recurve away from the USA is increasing by the hour. Our only hope now is that somehow it also stays North of the Islands.

[Recurve]

Cyclogenesis, such a tricky critter. We see a huge mass of clouds and get convinced it's going to spin up into a 60knot TS in 24 hours. Not so sure now. This thing was moving fast. It could well pass through the islands as a wave, although I wouldn't go against the near-certain call of at least a depression from the NHC. Without any obs or recon, I'm not sure if we're watching a nearly focused depression, a wave ingesting a dry slot from the south, just regular dmin, or what. The southern 'arm' looks to have a definite inflow towards a center, but I don't see anything definite, just hints given by some twist in the northern and southern cloudbands, which are far apart.

See, you start calling her Emily and she clears out. Hope the diffuse character continues for the islands' sake.

Where does the low center if there's a hint of one look to form now? 14 47? or 12 46?

[BigB0882]

I don't think it is a sure thing that this will miss the mainland US. We have seen ridges build back in more quickly than though and push storms back West. Andrew did something similar although I am not sure if he was always seen as a recurve. It is dangerous to assume anything when it comes to tropical weather, especially days out.

[SFLcane]

00z plots... clear weakness there based on current models

[TwisterFanatic]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

I'm not a mod or anything, but it is WAAY to early for posts of certainty like this.