WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
I guess the impact of Muifa in Okinawa will be greater than Songda. Muifa could've peaked in intensity right now but it doesn't mean that it would weaken considerably at this point, there is a chance that it will remain as a dangerous CAT4 typhoon when it comes close to Okinawa, in my opinion. Songda, when it reached Okinawa, has significantly lost its organization than it was when it became a supertyphoon.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.8N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.1N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 132.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.8N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.1N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 132.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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JTWC discussion:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
DROP-OFF IN CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF TWO FACTORS: ONE, THE TUTT
CELL PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS OPENED UP TOO MUCH
DISTANCE ON THE STORM AND THE CHANNEL HAS CUT OFF, AND TWO, THERE IS
SOME MILD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLIES DIVING OVER SOUTHERN
HONSHU. THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARE DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS,
STY 11W REMAINS A SUPER TYPHOON AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINHOLE EYE
AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN EVERY QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH A 302118Z SSMIS
PASS VERIFIES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, IT ALSO VERIFIES THE EXISTENCE OF A DEEP AND
CONTIGUOUS EYEWALL. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE IS ALSO SHOWING WHAT MAY BE
THE VERY BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT THAT IS THE FIRST IMAGE THAT EVEN HINTS AT THAT
PROCESS, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGN OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT YET. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND 95 KNOTS FROM RJTD.
SSTY 11W HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE EQUATORWARD AND EAST SIDE OF THE
STORM REMAIN VIGOROUS. STY 11W HAS RECENTLY CLEARED THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND IS NOW DRIFTING POLEWARD IN A VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGH INTENSITY AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM IS
GENERATING TREMENDOUS SEAS. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS AN
EFFECT OF A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN
HIGH. THE BONIN HIGH HAS BEEN DISPLACED UNUSUALLY FAR EASTWARD, ALL
THE WAY TO THE DATELINE.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
STY 11W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG A SLOW AND AT TIMES ERRATIC
TRACK THROUGH TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH
LATITUDE), THE RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BECOME THE STEERING FORCE AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. AS STY MUIFA IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ENTERING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS A NON-FACTOR, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLIGHT UPWARDS TREND UP TO THE POINT OF
THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE EXPECTED
DECLINE IS A FUNCTION OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM
DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH
TAU 72, WHICH ARE IN NEARLY EXACT AGREEMENT.
AFTER TAU 72, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, BUT IN THE AGGREGATE,
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN FOCUSES THE TRACK CLOSER TO OKINAWA. THE
ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER, WHICH WAS THE FIRST MODEL TO PICK UP THE
WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK, STEERS THE SYSTEM SOUTH BUT CLOSE TO
OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS PREDICTS A DIRECT HIT ON THE NORTH END OF
THE ISLAND. CONSENSUS, HOWEVER, IS BEING PULLED POLEWARD BY GFDN AND
GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM
WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 IS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO BIPOLAR INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72,
WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODELS (INCLUDING STIPS11) ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE
OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER
THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO
FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A
BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48.
REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE BIG PICTURE OF A
CLOSE STRIKE TO OKINAWA BY A SEVERE TYPHOON LATE NEXT WEEK.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
DROP-OFF IN CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF TWO FACTORS: ONE, THE TUTT
CELL PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS OPENED UP TOO MUCH
DISTANCE ON THE STORM AND THE CHANNEL HAS CUT OFF, AND TWO, THERE IS
SOME MILD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLIES DIVING OVER SOUTHERN
HONSHU. THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARE DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS,
STY 11W REMAINS A SUPER TYPHOON AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINHOLE EYE
AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN EVERY QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH A 302118Z SSMIS
PASS VERIFIES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, IT ALSO VERIFIES THE EXISTENCE OF A DEEP AND
CONTIGUOUS EYEWALL. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE IS ALSO SHOWING WHAT MAY BE
THE VERY BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT THAT IS THE FIRST IMAGE THAT EVEN HINTS AT THAT
PROCESS, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGN OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT YET. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND 95 KNOTS FROM RJTD.
SSTY 11W HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE EQUATORWARD AND EAST SIDE OF THE
STORM REMAIN VIGOROUS. STY 11W HAS RECENTLY CLEARED THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND IS NOW DRIFTING POLEWARD IN A VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGH INTENSITY AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM IS
GENERATING TREMENDOUS SEAS. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS AN
EFFECT OF A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN
HIGH. THE BONIN HIGH HAS BEEN DISPLACED UNUSUALLY FAR EASTWARD, ALL
THE WAY TO THE DATELINE.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
STY 11W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG A SLOW AND AT TIMES ERRATIC
TRACK THROUGH TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH
LATITUDE), THE RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BECOME THE STEERING FORCE AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. AS STY MUIFA IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ENTERING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS A NON-FACTOR, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLIGHT UPWARDS TREND UP TO THE POINT OF
THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE EXPECTED
DECLINE IS A FUNCTION OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM
DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH
TAU 72, WHICH ARE IN NEARLY EXACT AGREEMENT.
AFTER TAU 72, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, BUT IN THE AGGREGATE,
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN FOCUSES THE TRACK CLOSER TO OKINAWA. THE
ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER, WHICH WAS THE FIRST MODEL TO PICK UP THE
WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK, STEERS THE SYSTEM SOUTH BUT CLOSE TO
OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS PREDICTS A DIRECT HIT ON THE NORTH END OF
THE ISLAND. CONSENSUS, HOWEVER, IS BEING PULLED POLEWARD BY GFDN AND
GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM
WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 IS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO BIPOLAR INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72,
WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODELS (INCLUDING STIPS11) ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE
OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER
THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO
FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A
BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48.
REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE BIG PICTURE OF A
CLOSE STRIKE TO OKINAWA BY A SEVERE TYPHOON LATE NEXT WEEK.
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
When we first got here, I would have been scared to death about this storm coming. I guess I have officially been here long enough that I am now completely resigned to the fact that there is really not much I can do to prepare for this other than to bring crap in the house and be prepared to make a bed on the kitchen floor again. 
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The admins have given the go-ahead to start a new thread dedicated to Okinawa preparations and observations, so this thread can continue to be focussed on discussing the storm while we keep track of how Okinawa prepares without posts being lost halfway down this thread among other discussion about the typhoon.
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Yeah, that will be a dead thread because there are only 3 of us on here from Okinawa and we are discussing the storm more often than not. Is the occasional comment on prep here really killing someone? I do not see this happen for other storms in the West Pac since there are not many of us to discuss them. Those threads are usually reserved for the hundreds who log on to discuss storms in the ATL. Are comments from 3 of us really a hindrance to you? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but there really aren't many of us to maintain a whole thread on prep alone.
Last edited by Infdidoll on Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
Infdidoll wrote:Yeah, that will be a dead thread because there are only 3 of us on here from Okinawa and we are discussing the storm more often than not. I'm sorry, but is the occasional comment on prep here really killing someone? I do not see this happen for other storms in the West Pac since there are not many of us to discuss them. Those threads are usually reserved for the hundreds who log on to discuss storms in the ATL. This reeks of excluding 3 of us because our very sparse comments are a hindrance to you.
You misread my intent wildly, and I'm sorry that that's occurred. My intention was to get this storm equal coverage to the Atlantic, and I was hoping that starting the other thread would get more eyes from people who normally only follow the Atlantic. It's sad that a 135 kt super typhoon is getting less attention than some minor disturbance. It's silly that they get their own thread for stuff like that when the WPac are always marginalised — as we have always been.
If this new thread contains quick-and-easy information for those who do not normally follow the WPAC to see how big this storm is and how the U.S. military could be affected and is taking action, it could hopefully gain the WPac some new followers. That's always been my only intention, because I recognise we are a definite minority on here.
About the last thing I want to do is alienate our own WPac posters.
Last edited by Chacor on Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:59 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Florida1118
Re:
Infdidoll wrote:Yeah, that will be a dead thread because there are only 3 of us on here from Okinawa and we are discussing the storm more often than not. I'm sorry, but is the occasional comment on prep here really killing someone? I do not see this happen for other storms in the West Pac since there are not many of us to discuss them. Those threads are usually reserved for the hundreds who log on to discuss storms in the ATL. This reeks of excluding 3 of us because our very sparse comments are a hindrance to you.
I'm really more of a lurker, not really a poster. Dont think none of us aren't watching this; I just dont know where Pasific typhoon info is, models etc...If you want my 2cents and worthless thinking I can give it; its just I dont wanna clog up your info...
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Re: Re:
Chacor wrote:Infdidoll wrote:Yeah, that will be a dead thread because there are only 3 of us on here from Okinawa and we are discussing the storm more often than not. I'm sorry, but is the occasional comment on prep here really killing someone? I do not see this happen for other storms in the West Pac since there are not many of us to discuss them. Those threads are usually reserved for the hundreds who log on to discuss storms in the ATL. This reeks of excluding 3 of us because our very sparse comments are a hindrance to you.
You misread my intent wildly, and I'm sorry that that's occurred. My intention was to get this storm equal coverage to the Atlantic, and I was hoping that starting the other thread would get more eyes from people who normally only follow the Atlantic. It's sad that a 135 kt super typhoon is getting less attention than some minor disturbance.
Sorry Chacor, I DID read that as sounding like our comments were really bothering you. My apologies if that's not what you meant. There just aren't many of us. It's understandable to me that the ATL gets multiple threads because there is SO much discussion going on and this is the first time I've ever seen a separate thread for observations. I always assumed it just wasn't necessary since we only have 3 in Okinawa who regularly participate on threads. I am very sorry for misreading your intentions and thank you for clarifying them.
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Re: Re:
Chacor wrote:If this new thread contains quick-and-easy information for those who do not normally follow the WPAC to see how big this storm is and how the U.S. military could be affected and is taking action, it could hopefully gain the WPac some new followers. That's always been my only intention, because I recognise we are a definite minority on here.
About the last thing I want to do is alienate our own WPac posters.
That's GREAT! Okay, great idea, Chacor...I'm eating crow. I will admit when I'm wrong. More WPAC posters would be great. We've had some doozies in the WPAC and only get a handful of dedicated trackers and those who want to discuss. I think we're so used to nobody really caring about storms in our area that it's like, "What the hell, dude? You don't want us to participate in the thread anymore? You think our conversations are completely inane?"
(and with that, I'll quit clogging up the info thread - but do hope there are more of us around to discuss)
Last edited by Infdidoll on Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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weatherSnoop
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Re:
Infdidoll wrote:Yeah, that will be a dead thread because there are only 3 of us on here from Okinawa and we are discussing the storm more often than not. I'm sorry, but is the occasional comment on prep here really killing someone? I do not see this happen for other storms in the West Pac since there are not many of us to discuss them. Those threads are usually reserved for the hundreds who log on to discuss storms in the ATL. This reeks of excluding 3 of us because our very sparse comments are a hindrance to you.
Wow, Infidoll...I have always enjoyed reading your experiences including storm prep. I think Chacor's thread was set up to allow all "3" of you, in your words and others to know what is transpiring moment by moment without "us" having to filter throw the advisories and other stuff. Some of us care about the current human side of the storm more than a 65 line advisory. I think this a great outlet for you all to provide info to us in the US and other worldly locales. It is a common practice of this site to provide an uninterupted, real time view for those not in the affected area. Do you not have family that might not want to scroll through the long science and just want to know what you are experienceing and that you are safe? I do hope all of you on the island fare well thru the storm and will be monitering as it approaches and hits, if it does. If I was in your place, I would be happy to be considered as the other, more popular areas, that have the opportunity to share.
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Florida1118
Re: Re:
Infdidoll wrote:Chacor wrote:If this new thread contains quick-and-easy information for those who do not normally follow the WPAC to see how big this storm is and how the U.S. military could be affected and is taking action, it could hopefully gain the WPac some new followers. That's always been my only intention, because I recognise we are a definite minority on here.
About the last thing I want to do is alienate our own WPac posters.
That's GREAT! Okay, great idea, Chacor...I'm eating crow. I will admit when I'm wrong. More WPAC posters would be great. We've had some doozies in the WPAC and only get a handful of dedicated trackers and those who want to discuss. I think we're so used to nobody really caring about storms in our area that it's like, "What the hell, dude? You don't want us to participate in the thread anymore? You think our conversations are completely inane?"
(and with that, I'll quit clogging up the info thread - but do hope there are more of us around to discuss)
I'd like to follow WPAC systems, but I just dont wanna bother you guys by asking questions that a noob would ask...like Where do you find advisories etc...if someone could give me some general info about the WPAC basin, I d thank you very much!
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Typhoon Hunter
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
I'm sorry guys...That declaration coming right after my non-storm-tech related post and I figured we were annoying people. Just seems like the same people always posting and I wasn't aware that we had many lurkers. I'm eating crow over here! I'll join you for those types of discussion in other thread. Chacor smacked me straight. LOL I sound like an emotional, crazy woman, now (because I am). Again, my apologies to Chacor and all the lurkers that I did not know were following and might like to discuss as well.
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re:
Chacor wrote:So you're intercepting this then? Good to hear.
Here's the latest IR shot. Convection is warming, which is a good sign, although the JTWC is expecting reintensification. I still see no signs of a secondary eyewall.
If a track near Okinawa / Ryukus verifies I'll definitely be going after Muifa. Still 4 days or so out so still some uncertainty there, would probably travel on Tuesday if things shaping up for a hit.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
Well the other thread for the prep is a good idea, it's more like giving the WPAC systems more coverage as what the systems from the ATL has been getting. I also lurk in the ATL storm threads and I like the way the things are observed and being organized. They also got to have separate threads for the models. Good to know that we have visitors coming from the other side that got interested with this one, maybe a start to get more people appreciating the WPAC season. 
Many amazing and interesting storms have been brewing in this basin ever since so it would be a waste if only a few can be able to witness them as they happen.
Good to know that we have visitors coming from the other side that got interested with this one, maybe a start to get more people appreciating the WPAC season. Many amazing and interesting storms have been brewing in this basin ever since so it would be a waste if only a few can be able to witness them as they happen.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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