ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ozonepete]

Here we go. Pretty sure it's starting to consolidate.

[jinftl]

With the margin of error 120+ hours out...i won't rule any scenario out yet....all about the trend at this point...let's see what the next few model runs suggest...until an LLC is established and initialized in model runs, alot of this is 'conjecture'

[Weatherfreak000]

"Scientist"??? I mean no disrespect CaneFreak, but all the "Scientists" I am referencing all believe in the weakness solution, haven't seen not ONE pro met disagree. I have watched the models all slowly but surely converge....I just don't see what your getting at here...sure i've seen models flip flop is that what we are SEEING here? I don't think so. The weakness Wxman showed in model guidance thinking was blatant- it was HUGE.

With that said, I will stop clogging up this topic, and apologize to the Mods. Back to schedule.

['CaneFreak]

Never said it wouldn't develop and neither did gatorcane...not sure what your point is here

I think your misunderstanding the situation we face here. The weakness models VERY prominently are picking up on will likely pick up 91L whenever it develops. UNLESS it doesn't, and travels through the graveyard.

I understand your point, but it's too situational, and with 80% and such an impressive look, it's hard to believe this won't be classifed tomorrow.

[Florida1118]

Never said it wouldn't develop and neither did gatorcane...not sure what your point is here

I think your misunderstanding the situation we face here. The weakness models VERY prominently are picking up on will likely pick up 91L whenever it develops. UNLESS it doesn't, and travels through the graveyard.

I understand your point, but it's too situational, and with 80% and such an impressive look, it's hard to believe this won't be classifed tomorrow.

Hey so how bout them models...Their awesome. Lets talk about them!

['CaneFreak]

Sorry cycloneye...I thought this was just a friendly disagreement but I will stop now. He is taking it the wrong way I see.

Ok to both of you above,let's leave it there and discuss about the model scenarios without getting into personal things.

['CaneFreak]

Strongly agree here...you can see quite a "consensus" that there will be a weakness off of the east coast but whether it goes out to sea or not is a totally different animal...quite a range of speculation at this point until we get a recon center fix.

With the margin of error 120+ hours out...i won't rule any scenario out yet....all about the trend at this point...let's see what the next few model runs suggest...until an LLC is established and initialized in model runs, alot of this is 'conjecture'

[Florida1118]

With the size of emily, wouldnt it be possible for some rainbands on the E coast of Florida if it took the more westward curve?

[boca]

I'm sure the models will flip flop alot where was wxman's post regarding the weakness I just logged in?

[cycloneye]

Can you imagine for a moment if 91L doesn't develop at all after all the hype of the models,having a well defined low,warm waters,not a lot of shear and not tons of dry air,how the forum would turn into?

Sure -- but we've never been wrong before, right?
For the islands' sake we can hope development if any is slow.

I know I get fooled by watching loops. It tricks the brain into thinking that things that take 24 hours can happen in 15 seconds.

I was only joking while we wait to the system to do what is expected

['CaneFreak]

I believe it is 5 pages back in the other thread labeled discussion...I THINK...

I'm sure the models will flip flop alot where was wxman's post regarding the weakness I just logged in?

[cycloneye]

I'm sure the models will flip flop alot where was wxman's post regarding the weakness I just logged in?

On page 30 of the 91L discussion thread at 6:19 PM. Link to page 30.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111285&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=580

[TheDreamTraveler]

"Scientist"??? I mean no disrespect CaneFreak, but all the "Scientists" I am referencing all believe in the weakness solution, haven't seen not ONE pro met disagree. I have watched the models all slowly but surely converge....I just don't see what your getting at here...sure i've seen models flip flop is that what we are SEEING here? I don't think so. The weakness Wxman showed in model guidance thinking was blatant- it was HUGE.

With that said, I will stop clogging up this topic, and apologize to the Mods. Back to schedule.

Jeff Masters and Joe Bastardi both believe that you can't rule out a landfall on the east coast at this point in time this far out. So hey, there's two professional meteorologists for you that disagree, among others. =)

Edit: Oh, and in wxman57's post he added at the end that there could still be a threat to the east coast.

[Countrygirl911]

could this be our first major hurricane to follow

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I guess I will throw a little fuel into the fire about this. Could be way off, been so busy days just blend together, but Wasn't it a week or so ago that models were predicting another strong trough to drop down the east coast and really cool things down and give us in the deep south some relief as well. And not two days later things turned 180 degrees and it turned out to be really weak, never dropped down and stayed off the NE coast?

[jinftl]

Excerpt from NWS Miami Discussion this evening:

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOME 900 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED. NHC NOW GIVES THIS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM
(SHOULD IT INDEED DEVELOP ITS NAME WOULD BE EMILY) TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO BY MID
WEEK. AS ALWAYS...THERE`S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. IF
IT BECOMES A HURRICANE IT WILL FEEL THE TROUGH MORE AND GET PULLED
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
MEAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. ALSO...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION WITH THE 30.00Z RUN (12Z NOT IN YET) OF
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. SO THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS
THAT IT`S JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[beoumont]

wxman57, I love this point. The same agency forecasting and validating means that in...let's just say in "judgment calls"...the books can be easily cooked and forecast validations look awesome. It may have been a brilliant political move by the NHC to change to this type of forecast a few years ago...the perfect forecast to be held to is one you control the call on, huh?

You're right re: separate agency. It'll never happen.

Sure, an agency titled: IFAWNRTHTCDB or Internet forum amateurs with no responsibility that think that they can do better.

Geez, assuming career scientists fudge the books, whose prime objective, as stated is:
"The mission of the National Hurricane Center is to save lives, mitigate property loss and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards."

[HurricaneWarning92]

Today is gonna be an interesting day...

[HurricaneWarning92]

I just noticed they brought down the percentage from 90% to 80%.

[TwisterFanatic]

:uarrow: I just noticed they brought down the percentage from 90% to 80%.

Nope..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_s ... 1#contents