WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

Chacor · #281 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:42 pm

WTPQ32 PGUM 310323
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112011
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 31 2011

...SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

635 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
680 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU.

SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. MUIFA IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING NEAR THIS SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 155 MPH. MUIFA IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...17.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
132.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

#282 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:55 pm

Just my opinion however it was hovering in the same sport for awhile hense the weakening..unfortuatly it is moving and I think will gain the steam back and be very strong still..

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Chacor · #283 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:56 pm

JMA bulletin shows little movement.

WTPQ21 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 16.9N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 19.0N 132.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 020000UTC 21.2N 132.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 030000UTC 23.4N 129.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

phwxenthusiast · #284 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:03 pm

it's clearly suffering right now, although i'm not writing off re-intensification off just yet... :wink:

#285 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:06 pm

Forecast for Okinawa if it stays on track

-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 9 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 9 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, between 9 p.m. Thursday-2 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 98-mph winds and 144-mph gusts between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 8 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 10 a.m. Saturday.

flattire · #286 Postby **flattire** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:26 pm

Re: the discussion earlier about having more attention to WPac, can I just say that really appreciate the discussion of every invest in our area. I've always lurked in the forums to know of storms coming towards us here in PI and I've learned a bit or two about reading all the geeky stuff coming from the agencies. Hope you guys would continue with the info gathering and discussions. Thanks alot!

#287 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:29 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:it's clearly suffering right now, although i'm not writing off re-intensification off just yet...

I think now that it is starting to move from that one spot it will re intensify but who knows... thats my opinion though

rdhdstpchld · #288 Postby **rdhdstpchld** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:35 pm

I just watched an entire 45 second clip on the storm and Okinawa on CNNj -- our little island is famous! LOL -- it always cracks me up how they do the weather and hardly EVER mention the WPAC storms - tho I should agree that before moving here, I didn't even think about typhoons...only hurricanes. :oops:

euro6208 · #289 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:51 pm

rdhdstpchld wrote:I just watched an entire 45 second clip on the storm and Okinawa on CNNj -- our little island is famous! LOL -- it always cracks me up how they do the weather and hardly EVER mention the WPAC storms - tho I should agree that before moving here, I didn't even think about typhoons...only hurricanes.

lol...

it wouldn't surprised me that muifa peaked at 160-165 knots with a central pressure of 865 mb...

anyone here know of any historical typhoons in the past thats similiar to muifa?...rita 1978? gay 1975? im interested...

Battlebrick · #290 Postby **Battlebrick** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:53 pm

euro6208 wrote:
rdhdstpchld wrote:I just watched an entire 45 second clip on the storm and Okinawa on CNNj -- our little island is famous! LOL -- it always cracks me up how they do the weather and hardly EVER mention the WPAC storms - tho I should agree that before moving here, I didn't even think about typhoons...only hurricanes.

lol...

it wouldn't surprised me that muifa peaked at 160-165 knots with a central pressure of 865 mb...

anyone here know of any historical typhoons in the past thats similiar to muifa?...rita 1978? gay 1975? im interested...

Megi 2010, Nida 2009

dexterlabio · #291 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:16 am

Battlebrick wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
rdhdstpchld wrote:I just watched an entire 45 second clip on the storm and Okinawa on CNNj -- our little island is famous! LOL -- it always cracks me up how they do the weather and hardly EVER mention the WPAC storms - tho I should agree that before moving here, I didn't even think about typhoons...only hurricanes.

lol...

it wouldn't surprised me that muifa peaked at 160-165 knots with a central pressure of 865 mb...

anyone here know of any historical typhoons in the past thats similiar to muifa?...rita 1978? gay 1975? im interested...

Megi 2010, Nida 2009

Megi and Nida maintained that supertyphoon intensity for some days, and Megi maintaining a decent eye prior to landfall. Muifa is different in structure with the pinhole-sized but very intense eye, whereas Megi and Nida had larger and circular eye. Megi did not manage to undergo EWRC and its eye remained untouched until landfall.

I couldn't think of any storms similar to Muifa except for Wilma and Parma (though Parma failed to develop and maintain that eye further).

#292 Postby **StormingB81** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:23 am

Wunderground now has it staying a CAT 5 until right about landfall then weakining..if you want to call it that to a cat 4 at landfall

euro6208 · #293 Postby **euro6208** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:25 am

we all know what recon found in megi, 170-175 knots sustained winds!!! :double:

which would rank 1st of highest tropical cyclone winds ever recorded.

euro6208 · #294 Postby **euro6208** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:29 am

here is a picture of Super Typhoon Parma in 2009

her eye looks smaller than muifa. hard to believe this peak at only category 4 :roll:

dexterlabio · #295 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:34 am

euro6208 wrote:here is a picture of Super Typhoon Parma in 2009

her eye looks smaller than muifa. hard to believe this peak at only category 4

Too bad far Parma because it ingested some dry air, that picture was during its peak intensity. But still, the damage and deaths it brought was unimaginable.

Back to Muifa... I really do think that another round of intensification will occur before it touches Okinawa. Well, either the eye goes north or south of the island, they would still be experiencing winds of near (or at) supertyphoon strength.

#296 Postby **StormingB81** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:35 am

The eye is all but closed now..

Infdidoll · #297 Postby **Infdidoll** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:43 am

It was explained to me, once (may have even been on this board) that because of the warmer, shallower waters around Okinawa that the storm can ramp up slightly in intensity just before it hits Okinawa...So it very well may hit us with that intensity. Man-Yi cut across the island much like this storm is supposed to and caused quite a bit of damage at a Cat 4 intensity.

euro6208 · #298 Postby **euro6208** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:01 am

yes muifa's eye has closed but after i expect another round of intensification and her eye should be bigger this time...

Chacor · #299 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:46 am

JMA now in fairly major disagreement with JTWC, in no longer forecasting strengthening and forecasting a drop off from 24 hours onwards.

WTPQ21 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 17.2N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 19.3N 133.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 020600UTC 21.9N 132.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 030600UTC 23.5N 130.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

#300 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:51 am

With this I would say it would begin its N-NNE track once more.

WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

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