ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Although this is not a comparison at all to 91L. we have to remember that SW motions do happen when ridges build back in....

[Weatherfreak000]

What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks

Projected steering currents across the Caribbean and Gulf next week would suggest it either recurves or begins moving south of west and hits Nicaragua. Massive ridge over the south-central U.S. extending across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean and across the SE U.S. for all of next week.

This has been what the NHC, models, and pro mets have been getting at. It's a shame as members such as myself have to defend ourselves for stating our opinion on it when some people have trouble letting a storm go. (Same situation every damn season, members have trouble seeing a storm go I get it)


Been there done that. Trust me. I have had to move out of NOLA to North Louisiana for schooling...so I am missing all the potential action. Since then I have been able to have a more open-minded approach to storms whereas otherwise i'd probably be sitting in the boat hoping 91L dodges the MASSIVE weakness and avoids the DEATH ridge.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Although this is not a comparison at all to 91L. we have to remember that SW motions do happen when ridges build back in....

yep Ike had a similar track to Andrew at first and then it just went SW into the GOM.

['CaneFreak]

Understood...however, I don't feel very confident about this recurve scenario because:

1) Its August and large longwave troughs that sweep systems out to sea are hard to come by

2) The fact that there will be a ridge over the entire US next week suggests that maybe this thing begins to feel a weakness from the exiting s/w trough over the NE US and then turns back west under the ridge that will be reforming over the NE US after the trough slides by which would imply a threat to FL and the Gulf next week

What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks

Projected steering currents across the Caribbean and Gulf next week would suggest it either recurves or begins moving south of west and hits Nicaragua. Massive ridge over the south-central U.S. extending across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean and across the SE U.S. for all of next week.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Edit: CaneFreak have you BEEN here for the past few years??


Storms come and go that challenge what "Should" happen at any point in a season. Ike being a strong example but inverse. Remember, Climatology is NOT a forecast.

[fox13weather]

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Be careful???? Recurve is the favored solution by far??? You are telling people to be careful discussing the situation and then make a comment that is not supported by science. How can you make such a statement when the GFDL and the HWRF have shifted significantly to the west??

[bella_may]

Agreed. Folks in fl really need to be watching this
ote="'CaneFreak"]Understood...however, I don't feel very confident about this recurve scenario because:

1) Its August and large longwave troughs that sweep systems out to sea are hard to come by

2) The fact that there will be a ridge over the entire US next week suggests that maybe this thing begins to feel a weakness from the exiting s/w trough over the NE US and then turns back west under the ridge that will be reforming over the NE US after the trough slides by which would imply a threat to FL and the Gulf next week

What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks

Projected steering currents across the Caribbean and Gulf next week would suggest it either recurves or begins moving south of west and hits Nicaragua. Massive ridge over the south-central U.S. extending across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean and across the SE U.S. for all of next week.

[/quote]

[jinftl]

Great discussion and interesting to see how the 'recurve' view has now been replaced by a 'ridge of death' and the first (all be it, quite for now) speculation that this will inevitable make it into the Gulf. The one thing that has to happen first - this needs to develop a LLC and until recon confirms that, the model runs are speculation at best.

Haven't seen a model run that goes west of 80W...anything suggesting that is beyond 168 hours....and anything beyond a week out has a margin of error from Long Island to Belize!

91L/TD/Emily will do what she will....and the models will flip flop all over the place until there is an LLC to initialize them from.

[Evil Jeremy]

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

But saying that recurve is favored "by far" can make people stop paying attention when they should still be watching. Especially the "by far" part.

EDIT: I don't think I've ever seen a storm stir up this much debate here before.

[bella_may]

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Be careful???? Recurve is the favored solution by far??? You are telling people to be careful discussing the situation and then make a comment that is not supported by science. How can you make such a statement when the GFDL and the HWRF have shifted significantly to the west??

Thank you

[HurricaneWarning92]

I believe hes just making an opinion to why he doesnt feel confident. Besides, if its for sure going to recurve then that must mean it gets stronger sooner than expected. or else it just goes towards the yucatan as a weak system, so at the end it didnt recurve either.

[bella_may]

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Be careful???? Recurve is the favored solution by far??? You are telling people to be careful discussing the situation and then make a comment that is not supported by science. How can you make such a statement when the GFDL and the HWRF have shifted significantly to the west??

Thank you

['CaneFreak]

I don't care how UNFAVORED of a track it is...the possibility is still very real that this gets trapped and heads back west...just sit back, relax, and watch it unfold...

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Edit: CaneFreak have you BEEN here for the past few years??


Storms come and go that challenge what "Should" happen at any point in a season. Ike being a strong example but inverse. Remember, Climatology is NOT a forecast.

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't care how UNFAVORED of a track it is...the possibility is still very real that this gets trapped and heads back west...just sit back, relax, and watch it unfold...

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Edit: CaneFreak have you BEEN here for the past few years??


Storms come and go that challenge what "Should" happen at any point in a season. Ike being a strong example but inverse. Remember, Climatology is NOT a forecast.

That's FINE bro don't forget this whole thing got started cuz you CHALLENGE people, you insulted Gatorcane flat out, then you challenged me. It's like bro....your going to SERIOUSLY challenge people cuz u have a hunch? That's flat out unbecoming.

SO what i'm going to do, and plan on doing, is constantly harping on the recurve solution as I see fit.

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe hes just making an opinion to why he doesnt feel confident. Besides, if its for sure going to recurve then that must mean it gets stronger sooner than expected. or else it just goes towards the yucatan as a weak system, so at the end it didnt recurve either.

There are always more than two options. It's never "this or that". These are the tropics. Anything can happen.

[RL3AO]

406
URNT15 KNHC 311521
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 01 20110731
151000 1742N 06448W 0147 ///// 0142 +287 +234 360000 000 /// /// 23
151030 1742N 06448W 0149 ///// 0145 +290 +232 360000 000 /// /// 23
151100 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +290 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151130 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0147 +292 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
151200 1742N 06448W 0155 ///// 0148 +293 +225 360000 000 /// /// 23
151230 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +297 +224 360000 000 /// /// 23
151300 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +301 +223 360000 000 /// /// 23
151330 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +307 +224 360000 000 /// /// 23
151400 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +308 +224 360000 000 /// /// 23
151430 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +308 +225 360000 000 /// /// 23
151500 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +297 +226 360000 000 /// /// 23
151530 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +297 +226 360000 000 /// /// 23
151600 1742N 06448W 0150 ///// 0145 +307 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151630 1742N 06448W 0149 ///// 0144 +318 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151700 1742N 06448W 0149 ///// 0144 +315 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151730 1742N 06448W 0147 ///// 0142 +307 +232 360000 000 /// /// 23
151800 1742N 06448W 0145 ///// 0140 +297 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
151830 1742N 06448W 0141 ///// 0136 +292 +234 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 1742N 06449W 0137 ///// 0132 +292 +235 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 1742N 06449W 0128 ///// 0127 +309 +236 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;


We're off. I'm leaving soon so someone else will have to do it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

['CaneFreak]

Welcome to storm2k where people's theories are challenged everyday as we try to unlock the mysteries of tropical meteorology

I don't care how UNFAVORED of a track it is...the possibility is still very real that this gets trapped and heads back west...just sit back, relax, and watch it unfold...

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Edit: CaneFreak have you BEEN here for the past few years??


Storms come and go that challenge what "Should" happen at any point in a season. Ike being a strong example but inverse. Remember, Climatology is NOT a forecast.

That's FINE bro don't forget this whole thing got started cuz you CHALLENGE people, you insulted Gatorcane flat out, then you challenged me. It's like bro....your going to SERIOUSLY challenge people cuz u have a hunch? That's flat out unbecoming.

SO what i'm going to do, and plan on doing, is constantly harping on the recurve solution as I see fit.

[Dave]

I can take it RL...let me know when.

[jinftl]

agree...we saw that with Don last week....the storm that went 'poof'. Not saying 91L will have the same fate...but I am saying that the unexpected is to be expected. This board is starting to remind me of the book Animal Farm...hopefully the NHC will come rescue us with an advisory and forecast/discussion before long!!!

I believe hes just making an opinion to why he doesnt feel confident. Besides, if its for sure going to recurve then that must mean it gets stronger sooner than expected. or else it just goes towards the yucatan as a weak system, so at the end it didnt recurve either.

There are always more than two options. It's never "this or that". These are the tropics. Anything can happen.