ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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ConvergenceZone
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Re: Re:

#1481 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:33 am

pgoss11 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I do see where WXMAN is coming from on his forecast. He mentioned either Recurve or Central America. At first I didn't see where he was coming from, but then I pulled up all the forecasted patterns for next week, and yep, that is one massive HIGH protecting the USA. WXMAN nailed it, as he often does :). Either Recurve or Central America seems right to me.

Could you give us a link to that forecasted pattern? Thanks.



Go to the Models thread and you can see the HIGH's setting up shop across the USA and GULF.... I looked at a series of maps and pieced them all together side by side, not just one. Being that WMAN is a professional respected meteorologist, he knows a ton more than I do, but I actually understood what he was saying once I looked at the maps, and that's not always the case :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1482 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:33 am

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#1483 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:34 am

yeah thats extremely close to Florida. And it doesnt look that weak either...
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#1484 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:34 am

Have not payed enough attention but this is the first time I see the GFS follow the GFDL track wise and not the other way around.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1485 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:34 am

My goodness

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Re: Re:

#1486 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:34 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I do see where WXMAN is coming from on his forecast. He mentioned either Recurve or Central America. At first I didn't see where he was coming from, but then I pulled up all the forecasted patterns for next week, and yep, that is one massive HIGH protecting the USA. WXMAN nailed it, as he often does :). Either Recurve or Central America seems right to me.

Could you give us a link to that forecasted pattern? Thanks.



Go to the Models thread and you can see the HIGH's setting up shop across the USA and GULF.... I looked at a series of maps and pieced them all together side by side, not just one. Being that WMAN is a professional respected meteorologist, he knows a ton more than I do, but I actually understood what he was saying once I looked at the maps, and that's not always the case :wink:

OK thanks..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1487 Postby fci » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:35 am

sunnyday wrote:I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help. 8-)


My rule of thumb as to what to believe and where a system "might be heading" when reading this board is to go with these things in this order:
- NHC
- Pro Mets
- Climatology
- Experienced Amateurs
Throw out the "noise" of those who always predict that the storm will come to where they live.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1488 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:36 am

Ivanhater wrote:My goodness

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Now would be a good time to turn..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1489 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:36 am

Turning at 180 but at the last possible second....not a good trend folks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1490 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:38 am

Ivanhater wrote:Turning at 180 but at the last possible second....not a good trend folks

The longer this system takes to organize the more problems I fear for the EC
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#1491 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:38 am

Looks like the difference in this run is 91L moving faster. Even still, trough comes through....picks 91L up. Curves out to sea.



No change really in overall thinking, wxman47 still right.
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#1492 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:38 am

180 it slowly starts lifing out... if it were to move any slower that ridge sliding eastward over the us would trap it..
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Re:

#1493 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:40 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Looks like the difference in this run is 91L moving faster. Even still, trough comes through....picks 91L up. Curves out to sea.



No change really in overall thinking, wxman47 still right.



This is a HUGE shift to the west...This run would probably need TS warnings on the Florida east coast. It does not gett much closer than that without a direct hit....HUGE shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1494 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:41 am

sunnyday wrote:I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help. 8-)


The amount of certainly that some are making with their posts for something 7 to 10 days out is absurd in my opinion.
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#1495 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:42 am

How strong do the models have it by then?
Last edited by HurricaneWarning92 on Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1496 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:42 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Looks like the difference in this run is 91L moving faster. Even still, trough comes through....picks 91L up. Curves out to sea.



No change really in overall thinking, wxman47 still right.



This is a HUGE shift to the west...this run would probably need TS warnings on the Florida east coast. it does not gett much closer than that without a direct hit....HUGE shift.



Oh yeah no question. But even still my point is the overall thinking has not changed that being a trof will pick future Emily up and shoot her off to sea...

I just can't see future Emily booking it any faster than that right...and she still doesn't make it to the U.S. Wait for new GFDL to confirm. Definitely a shift but nothing to be concerned with as of yet.
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#1497 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:43 am

No hdobs since 07 transmitted...waiting..

1301 hrs...waiting...
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#1498 Postby x-y-no » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:44 am

12z GFS is a nightmare run for Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and especially the Bahamas. Far and away the slowest GFS has been with this system yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1499 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:44 am

Look at the shift between the 00z 06z and 12z. I will post the 00z run first. HUGE shift west

00Z

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06Z

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12Z

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Re: Re:

#1500 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:45 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Looks like the difference in this run is 91L moving faster. Even still, trough comes through....picks 91L up. Curves out to sea.



No change really in overall thinking, wxman47 still right.



This is a HUGE shift to the west...This run would probably need TS warnings on the Florida east coast. It does not gett much closer than that without a direct hit....HUGE shift.


I agree Michael. Just a small westward shift on the 18Z GFS later tonight and that could put FL and the SE Coast is the path. We need to watch for a trend to form. If this continues, then we can get more concerned.
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