ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HurricaneWarning92]

Again, "nothing to be concerned with". We have to monitor this closely due to the shifts westwards.

[Weatherfreak000]

I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help.

My rule of thumb as to what to believe and where a system "might be heading" when reading this board is to go with these things in this order:
- NHC
- Pro Mets
- Climatology
- Experienced Amateurs
Throw out the "noise" of those who always predict that the storm will come to where they live.

GREAT post. Very informative. The point being any amateurs to this forum need to AVOID THESE POSTS like the plague. These posters will come across very convincing and they are saying what you wanna hear, but if the pro mets don't agree then it's typically best to be skeptical.

The amount of certainly that some are making with their posts for something 7 to 10 days out is absurd in my opinion.[/Quote]

So....are the pro mets being absurd as well? I'm just curious...because the pro mets are pretty set on recurve as well....

[WeatherEmperor]

Again, "nothing to be concerned with". We have to monitor this closely due to the shifts westwards.

I agree Michael. Just a small westward shift on the 18Z GFS later tonight and that could put FL and the SE Coast is the path. We need to watch for a trend to form. If this continues, then we can get more concerned.

I agree. Watch and if it continues, then we can get concerned.

['CaneFreak]

Wrong again...Wxman57 did NOT say he was sold out on a recurve...he said this thing could just as easily turn west and head into Nicaragua...so which promets are you referring to?

I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help.

My rule of thumb as to what to believe and where a system "might be heading" when reading this board is to go with these things in this order:
- NHC
- Pro Mets
- Climatology
- Experienced Amateurs
Throw out the "noise" of those who always predict that the storm will come to where they live.

GREAT post. Very informative. The point being any amateurs to this forum need to AVOID THESE POSTS like the plague. These posters will come across very convincing and they are saying what you wanna hear, but if the pro mets don't agree then it's typically best to be skeptical.

The amount of certainly that some are making with their posts for something 7 to 10 days out is absurd in my opinion.[/Quote]

So....are the pro mets being absurd as well? I'm just curious...because the pro mets are pretty set on recurve as well....

[Aric Dunn]

The area I pointed out seems to be getting more defined with every image.. it also seems to be much larger circ than the small one that "might" be farther east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[TheBurn]

Somewhat of a double-buzzsaw goin'...

[Aric Dunn]

Again, "nothing to be concerned with". We have to monitor this closely due to the shifts westwards.

I agree Michael. Just a small westward shift on the 18Z GFS later tonight and that could put FL and the SE Coast is the path. We need to watch for a trend to form. If this continues, then we can get more concerned.

I agree. Watch and if it continues, then we can get concerned.

this has continued for the last 4 runs of all the models..

[wzrgirl1]

Again, "nothing to be concerned with". We have to monitor this closely due to the shifts westwards.

I agree Michael. Just a small westward shift on the 18Z GFS later tonight and that could put FL and the SE Coast is the path. We need to watch for a trend to form. If this continues, then we can get more concerned.

I agree. Watch and if it continues, then we can get concerned.

So we are talking at least a week away....if it showed this two or three days from now then I might be more concerned.

[KWT]

Western one is getting more defined, but its less favourable positon with regards to the anticyclone...

Meanwhile eastern one looks like its getting stronger to me as well, can see the SW inflow but I'd assume there would be westerly winds under that MLC circulation asm well..

A mess, looks like a Carib bean gyre at the moment that just can't focus on any one area.

Probably also massivly icnreases the threat to Mexico/Central America.

The question is, may we see the western area become 92L, because it looks like a seperate area to me despite being spawned from the same gyre??

[ROCK]

This is a big shift west.....but I said or last night..not suprising...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Again, "nothing to be concerned with". We have to monitor this closely due to the shifts westwards.

I agree Michael. Just a small westward shift on the 18Z GFS later tonight and that could put FL and the SE Coast is the path. We need to watch for a trend to form. If this continues, then we can get more concerned.

I agree. Watch and if it continues, then we can get concerned.

this has continued for the last 4 runs of all the models..

Exactly. People cannot or shouldnt be saying that there is nothing to be concerned for this reason. Most models have shifted westwards, if not all. It would be different if most or even half the models were shifting eastwards, but it is not the case right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Can someone tell me how often the model data for the tropical distrurbances is released? Is it every 6 hours? 12 hours?
Thanks!

[KWT]

I actually think the threat is now real...the pattern may yet still recurve but the system is struggling to get going and concentrate into one system, plus the fact that the models are slowly reducing the strength of the trough...

IMO the models may well shift through to a FL landfall and maybe even further west then that yet...

Yep, big change in my thinking today peeps...combined risk due to Hispaniola/E.Cuba landfall threat and slower development.

[WeatherEmperor]

Again, "nothing to be concerned with". We have to monitor this closely due to the shifts westwards.

I agree Michael. Just a small westward shift on the 18Z GFS later tonight and that could put FL and the SE Coast is the path. We need to watch for a trend to form. If this continues, then we can get more concerned.

I agree. Watch and if it continues, then we can get concerned.

this has continued for the last 4 runs of all the models..

Aric,

I agree 100%. I write a couple of sentences and put the word "concerned" in there and they don't read the rest of what I wrote and they say it's too early to be concerned

I said that if this trend continues, then we can get worried.

Do you think that this westward trend will continue Aric?

[KWT]

not so sure, the western area is getting some real good low level turning, and since its on the way no harm in taking a slight detour to have a look.

[Lowpressure]

Recon windfield data will be very interesting.

[Gustywind]

[Nimbus]

Mostly concerned about Emily for the islands. The strong side of the storm for Puerto Rico and then Emily wrings herself out over Haiti and the DR.

Even if she misses the trough there still would be quite a lot of shear in the currently projected upper air environment over the Bahamas. Not to mention that the 2680 meter mountains of Hispaniola will break up the circulation.

So unless there is a major change in the synoptic reasoning we need to stay focused on the islands.

[jinftl]

Let's see the trend of future runs....latest runs show some degree of curvature to the NW after crossing 20N..whether that happens at 65W, 70W, or further west, has huge implications for the Bahamas and S.E. U.S. (even East Coast as a whole). Not seeing any Gulf crossings as of now.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The eastern one looks more like a depression to me. it has that structure.